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Apple Expected to Report Best-Ever Second Quarter Today With Anticipated Clues About iPhone X Sales
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The numbers don’t agree with your personal assessment.
AAPL sold 7% more phones y/y when adjusted for the 14 week quarter and iPhone sales were $62B vs $54B y/y. Adjust the $62B to 14 weeks and you’re more like $67B in iPhone sales, or a 25% increase y/y. ASP was $796, almost $100 more.
iPhone X was a huge success, at least in FYQ1 and it sold for less than 2 months and quelled iPhone 8 sales.
I hope there is a huge drop in sales and the shares fall considerably. I’m a customer not a shareholder and I want Cook to focus more on pleasing his customers and less on pleasing his shareholders.
I think you and I are literally the only 2 people that understand the TSMC results and their relation to Apple.
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Any public company has to listen to shareholders because we own the company.
We also just gave Tim Cook a huge vote of confidence because he's doing an incredible job.
Ah, got it. Relying on analyst's reports regarding other suppliers. Suppliers who sell components to multiple smartphone companies. Good luck with that.
It's hard to understand the analogy because the moon does in fact vanish almost every night. It's called "morning".
Which is actually pretty fitting since a) iPhone X is NOT selling, and b) they are going to have to atone to shareholders for that plus a number of other sins...as surely as day follows night.
Chances of Apple paying off shareholders by dumping the savings account into dividends are definitely nonzero and the consequences of that change would be staggering.
Yet there hasn't been a word on the subject from the world's biggest Mac blog -- founded by a guy who acknowledges that he quit his job after he bought a large amount of Apple stock.
I find that fact fascinating.
What the actual SNAP?! Can I call Google that, too? It's not 1990 for Apple. It's not 2001 for Google. If anyone really see Apple as the little guy shoving elbows just to get a seat on the big bus is astonishing, seeing history unfold as it has.
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Apple is iPhone Or Bust. That's why.
You have to look at trajectory, not position.
Apple today is what Blackberry was in 2007. Amazing at what they did and the de facto standard among wide swaths of society.
But also camping on ten-year-old ideas with no significant game changers in the R&D pipeline.
If you were at Blackberry in 2008 you would be reveling in the greatest balance sheet in the company's history...and in dominating your market space!
What you would not realize and what Apple does not realize is that the old ideas can't carry you forever.
And in case you don't think that the comparison is fair, remember that Blackberry at it's peak was #1 in the smartphone market.
Apple is currently #2 and declining.
Scroll through this and tell me that Blackberry didn't just have a few revolutionary ideas from the 90's that they milked all through the 2000's for obscene profit:
https://www.engadget.com/2009/12/28/ten-years-of-blackberry/
Meanwhile, every world-changing paradigm at Apple was developed by Steve Jobs.
Since then, they have invented dongles and baubles and earphones and a speaker that no one bought. And a watch that didn't really take off.
So yes, it's 1990 again for Apple. They just don't know it yet.
Ah, I see the "experts" are out in full force today. The X isn't selling, Apple is doomed, blah blah. Same as every quarter, move on.
You don't need #s to understand that the X is a marginal upgrade in my opinion. There are no official #s yet until Apple gets on a call around 4:30 pm EST.
Your opinion is not relevant to the overall story and I quoted numbers for FYQ1, which are official. Blowout.
There are numbers from the previous quarter, but we likely won't get a breakdown of how many X's sold, either way. I don't get the marginal upgrade comment though. Every phone update is marginal nowadays, but I actually see the X as the the biggest change since the original. The removal of the home button and the move to a gesture based interface was a huge change. For you to call it marginal really shows how good of a transition it was.
Note that the world's assessment of Apple’s trajectory is not necessarily as rosy as Apple’s assessment:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...areholder-payout-offset-iphone-disappointment
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...areholder-payout-offset-iphone-disappointment
The "world's" trajectory for Apple has been wrong for years. Apple is buying back their shares because they are cheap and that alone is going to create a double in AAPL over the next 5 years without any growth whatsoever.
The market focusing on unit sales is a mistake and will take time to play out in the market. This company is about far more than how many iPhones they sell in a 90 day period. Terrible way to value Apple. Value can take years to fully prevail.
MR is not doing the analysis, they are just reporting Wall Street expectations/predictions.
Adjusted for the 14 week quarter the Q1/17 numbers were very disappointing and represented a decline in both units and revenue from the previous two years. Compare Q1/18 with Q1/16 and Q1/15 and you will see that iPhone unit sales have grown a total of 4% over the past three years and iPhone revenue has increased from $51B to $61.5B (20.6%) over those same three years.
It would be different if Q1/17 represented a high-point of continued, steady growth; but it didn't. It represented the end of a long period of revenue stagnation for Apple that had lasted three fiscal years. iPhone unit sales are continuing to be stagnant for a fourth fiscal year. YoY iPhone growth since the beginning of FY 2015 has only averaged 1.25% in unit sales and 6.75% in revenue. A potential one-time aberration caused by a hefty increase in ASP is not likely to represent sustainable growth for FY19 and beyond, particularly if the iPhone X sales taper off more than expected.
We'll know more this afternoon when Q3 estimates are released, but anything under $53B will be an indication that the revenue growth driven by the higher ASP of the iPhone X during Q1 is starting to peter out.
No, I disagree.
Apple guidance is key. Last quarter they gave guidance for this quarter and they will meet it. Whatever the street thinks they want to see, and whatever the whisper numbers are represents a playing field for traders, and not much more than that.
The real story is Apple financial performance - it is "Stellar".
By one measure, if Apple guidance numbers are met for this quarterly report, "iPhone blah blah will have grown 15% last year quarter to this year quarter". You can twist words around and so forth, but Apple is about to show you double digit growth and beat some records today - as they have done over the last many many years actually.
It's the biggest company in the world. It has Billions of dollars. It's nothing but a happy story for Apple. You actually have to really try hard to find something going wrong for their business.
Sure they have problems with this and that - Siri could be better, they were late on the Home Pod release, but so what really? In a longer time period than we will wish for, it all gets fixed up.
Apple is primed to be boosting R&D to the highest in the sector - higher than Amazon for instance. Forget the "sector" - I'd guess that Apple R&D expenditures will be the highest in the world. Would I be wrong about that guess? I wonder. How much money does the government spend on airplanes and space programs etc compared to the Billions Amazon and Apple are spending on tech? I'd like to get a feel for that scale of R&D expenditures and then see if it's "1990" again for Apple. lol.
Apple is primed to up the dividend and make a huge buyback of stock announcement here.
India is growing and guess who is getting all the profits from "smartphone" revenues?
China maybe had a hiccup - but probably Apple in comparison to the others, did ok.
Are we on track for the "services revenue doubling by 2020" or whatever year Tim Cook promised? Probably yes, ahead of the predicted growth rate would be my guess.
So in a nutshell - Apple guidance has been right for many quarters. All news is noise. If their guidance looks attractive to you, you can be very safe going long with Apple with a lot of money. That same large lump of money would not be nearly as safe anywhere else.
Safe slam dunk performance practically guaranteed for the next several years!
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The "world's assessment" of any topic has been completely wrong so many times in the last several years.
I hate to go political, but Decades ago, did you ever see a "Gallup poll" or other "polls" get an election wrong? The world's assessment of the USA presidential election was completely wrong. Same for the UK "Brexit". They even did a "NOVA" episode on the topic to lick their wounds and make regular brainwashed people accept the "world assessment". Funny stuff.
I can list many more bad "world assessments", but you might not like to hear it.
Instead go get some AAPL stock.
Instead remind yourself that "Apple's assessment" has been right on the money for many many quarters. Their guidance has been the truth for so long, and I can't doubt it now, nor should you.
It doesn’t matter what the numbers are. The detractors will always try and twist them to suit their agenda and move the goal posts.No, I disagree.
Apple guidance is key. Last quarter they gave guidance for this quarter and they will meet it. Whatever the street thinks they want to see, and whatever the whisper numbers are represents a playing field for traders, and not much more than that.
The real story is Apple financial performance - it is "Stellar".
By one measure, if Apple guidance numbers are met for this quarterly report, "iPhone blah blah will have grown 15% last year quarter to this year quarter". You can twist words around and so forth, but Apple is about to show you double digit growth and beat some records today - as they have done over the last many many years actually.
It's the biggest company in the world. It has Billions of dollars. It's nothing but a happy story for Apple. You actually have to really try hard to find something going wrong for their business.
Sure they have problems with this and that - Siri could be better, they were late on the Home Pod release, but so what really? In a longer time period than we will wish for, it all gets fixed up.
Apple is primed to be boosting R&D to the highest in the sector - higher than Amazon for instance. Forget the "sector" - I'd guess that Apple R&D expenditures will be the highest in the world. Would I be wrong about that guess? I wonder. How much money does the government spend on airplanes and space programs etc compared to the Billions Amazon and Apple are spending on tech? I'd like to get a feel for that scale of R&D expenditures and then see if it's "1990" again for Apple. lol.
Apple is primed to up the dividend and make a huge buyback of stock announcement here.
India is growing and guess who is getting all the profits from "smartphone" revenues?
China maybe had a hiccup - but probably Apple in comparison to the others, did ok.
Are we on track for the "services revenue doubling by 2020" or whatever year Tim Cook promised? Probably yes, ahead of the predicted growth rate would be my guess.
So in a nutshell - Apple guidance has been right for many quarters. All news is noise. If their guidance looks attractive to you, you can be very safe going long with Apple with a lot of money. That same large lump of money would not be nearly as safe anywhere else.
Safe slam dunk performance practically guaranteed for the next several years!
[doublepost=1525204964][/doublepost]
The "world's assessment" of any topic has been completely wrong so many times in the last several years.
I hate to go political, but Decades ago, did you ever see a "Gallup poll" or other "polls" get an election wrong? The world's assessment of the USA presidential election was completely wrong. Same for the UK "Brexit". They even did a "NOVA" episode on the topic to lick their wounds and make regular brainwashed people accept the "world assessment". Funny stuff.
I can list many more bad "world assessments", but you might not like to hear it.
Instead go get some AAPL stock.
Instead remind yourself that "Apple's assessment" has been right on the money for many many quarters. Their guidance has been the truth for so long, and I can't doubt it now, nor should you.
Yes, agreed on that point.
We can have good news, but all that matters is if and when the market responds to it.
Apple has been projecting good news forecasts through their future quarterly guidance numbers. Just looking at that, a Warren Buffet type investor should see the great value, great performance and and great safety here. AAPL is THE place to park your money in my opinion.
Apple is profitable but resting on their old products. Let's see some innovation and something exciting.
iPhone was announced in January in 2007. Apple stock moved a little bit, but not much.
I was raving like a nut to my friends how amazing and revolutionary the iPhone was gonna be.
June rolled around and people lined up, and I eventually was able to get one in my hands.
I was blown away.
All along there I was buying more AAPL shares. But nobody seemed to care that much about the iPhone.
It was funny.
Would we know what the innovation is when we see it? That's the real question
APPLE 2Q EPS $2.73, EST. $2.64
REV: $61.1B, EST $61.1B
APPLE 2Q IPHONE UNITS SOLD 52.2M, EST. 52.3M
Amazing numbers.
[doublepost=1525206935][/doublepost]Cook:
"We're thrilled to report our best March quarter ever, with strong revenue growth in iPhone, Services and Wearables," said Tim Cook, Apple's CEO. "Customers chose iPhone X more than any other iPhone each week in the March quarter, just as they did following its launch in the December quarter. We also grew revenue in all of our geographic segments, with over 20% growth in Greater China and Japan."
[doublepost=1525206966][/doublepost]iPHONE X MOST POPULAR PHONE EACH WEEK IN THIS QUARTER AS WELL.
Well, that settles it. MOST POPULAR iPhone...iPhone X!!
REV: $61.1B, EST $61.1B
APPLE 2Q IPHONE UNITS SOLD 52.2M, EST. 52.3M
Amazing numbers.
[doublepost=1525206935][/doublepost]Cook:
"We're thrilled to report our best March quarter ever, with strong revenue growth in iPhone, Services and Wearables," said Tim Cook, Apple's CEO. "Customers chose iPhone X more than any other iPhone each week in the March quarter, just as they did following its launch in the December quarter. We also grew revenue in all of our geographic segments, with over 20% growth in Greater China and Japan."
[doublepost=1525206966][/doublepost]iPHONE X MOST POPULAR PHONE EACH WEEK IN THIS QUARTER AS WELL.
Well, that settles it. MOST POPULAR iPhone...iPhone X!!
So, let's take time now to look at Apple's (Tim Cook) guidance for next quarter. Is it pretty good? There. No need to read propaganda from LongBow Research and others.