On-demand streaming has ads too, and in many ways those are more valuable (per viewer) because more is known about the viewer. Fishing channel doesn't know what rods your uncle was checking out online earlier, thus the ads are blunt and generalized. When watching that same show on streaming, they can put a perfetly targeted ad directed to one of the rods your uncle is considering. On a per viewer level, this is way bigger than traditional tv ads.
I think you're stuck in the live broadcast mindset, when the number of simultanious broadasts was limited, an thus the idea of a channel was needed. Todays technology can support a nearly unlimited number of simulatnious broadcasts. Literally every person can have their own channel perfectly tailored exactly to what they want. This isn't a channel anymore really, it's on-demand. When i select an episode on hulu, i am in a way creating my own channel, because after that episode it will play something else it thinks i'll like. My neighbor that starts a different show 10 minutes later creates his own channel, and so on and so forth.
Streaming is a demoratization of tv. The shows that attract viewers will get paid, you vote with your eyeballs. With cable, there is a disconnet because ratings aren't accurate and often don't reflect the actual popularity of a show. I think this opens up the possibility of having even more shows, targetted at smaller niche groups, because the feedbak would be instant. Its already happening in a way - look at all the niche shows on youtube and vimeo. They don't need cable or a channel to be successful.
Channels have no place in the streaming future.
Come on. On-demand ads are not sold for 50 times channel ad pricing to make up for the volume of ads running on each channel and all of the bundled channels too. That's how the math would have to work to make a few streaming ads make up for ALL of the revenue made from commercials "as is" right now.
To the math: I've done the math and last time I did, total U.S. TV advertising revenue for the "as is" is about $54 per U.S. household PER MONTH. So unless you have your streaming bundle of channels costing $54 per month before you actually have ANY channels/programming costs factored in, you are short-changing the revenue production of the "as is". If everyone followed you, SOMEBODY has to take the hit. Cut Apple in for 30% and SOMEBODY has to take that hit too. Who takes that hit in this "new model"?
And I'm NOT stuck in a channels-or-bust mindset. I like the idea of on-demand, commercial-free, watch-only-what-I-want-to-watch, when-I-want-to-watch-it as much as anyone here. The problem is the math doesn't work if we look at it beyond ourselves. Why does the Studios want to give us that? Why does Cable who also has the absolutely essential broadband pipe want to give us that? Where does our "big discount" come from (meaning who takes that hit)?
Philosophically, I get everything you are saying. But everything you're saying is heavily biased to our (consumer) perspective. Let me do that now with another kind of product we buy...
I don't want to pay "greedy" Apple $1000 for the next iPhone. I don't want to pay "greedy" Apple thousands of dollars for my next Mac. Instead, I want those for 90% less than Apple charges now. I don't care if it's profitable or not for them; this is about me and what I want to pay for such stuff. The "greedy" Apple has plenty of money in the bank already. I want what they make for next to nothing.
THIS topic is not so different than what I just wrote. Substitute names of the company and the products. But obviously, that makes no sense. And it makes no sense in THIS topic either.
I love the idea of THIS. But the key is showing the OTHER players how THEY are going to make more money. Else it gets nowhere. Apple has been at this same basic thing for >5 years now. If it's so good for those beyond Apple, why is it taking so long? Because they don't want to give away
their iPhones/Macs/etc for 80% or 90% off mostly to further enrich Apple.
And Apple doesn't want us to get our deep discount either: Apple and "deep discount" has never been a partnership in reality.
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Why don't they buy Netflix?
Because Apple doesn't want to pay for the content either. They got away with getting a big slice of music products revenues without having to buy EMI or similar. They want to do that again with video.
- Apple COULD buy Netflix
- Apple COULD have bought NBC/Universal but they didn't even try, so Comcast got that. They could have easily outbid Comcast for that deal.
- Apple COULD buy NFL Sunday Night Football as rumored recently.
- Apple COULD have bid for NFL Sunday Ticket instead of letting DirecTV win that contract again. And they could have easily outbid DirecTV for that deal too.
- Apple COULD buy DISH network or could have outbid AT&T for DirecTV.
- Apple COULD buy the massive Warner library of content that is for sale right now.
But Apple is going at this just like we consumers. They want everything for very little. Where they differ from us is they want the content owners to basically PAY them (their 30%) to host & package this content for us consumers. In that way, they are valuing the content even less than us delusional dreamers. Where we think we should still pay
something (apparently about $5 to maybe $30/month or so) for everything we want to watch, Apple wants the content owners to pay Apple 30% just to serve it up to us.
Apple certainly has the money on hand to buy and/or make original content on a MASSIVE scale. But they like the money more than they value that idea. Instead, they just want video property like they got music property. But the video property owners saw how that worked out for the music property owners.