Apple Has Likely Abandoned 'iPad Ultra' Plans

[Dreamail]

Sure fair enough. Tim Cook gets the praise for where he took Apple and should get criticism for the iPad line, whatever the “problems” are. Or these are just alleged cyclic seasonal trends. The “problem” with the IPP M5 is that it is a smashing piece of kit. And it’s expensive. I’m going to blame both “problems” on Tim Cook.

Yes for sure.
Cook just fanned product categories out into subcategories, each designed with deliberate limitations and cripplings to upsell potential customers to higher tier models - in order to have them spend more money than they originally intended to ... and in the process fill Apple's coffers. Extortion? Perhaps. Shareholders are happy. Customers maybe not as much.

The other Tim Cook “problem” with the iPad is they just last and last and last.

I wish!
My iPad Pro developed a blurry selfie cam (the lens glue separated from the backside of the screen glass) - a bit shy over 3 years after I got it - conveniently just after AppleCare ran out.
For that repair Apple quoted me $1,200 (!) - just for a selfie camera repair! Yikes!

Not as great a product as I had hoped.
And hopelessly over-engineered.
Their "repair" prices are ridiculous. Sure, technically it is not a "repair" but instead a complete exchange - yet that is exactly what is over-engineered about them. That they cannot be repaired.
That mindset is fine for a cheap $100 throwaway item, but a product that can cost $2,600 should be repairable at prices relative to the item that is broken. No one can tell me that the selfie cam costs $1,200...
It's just not well engineered, in my opinion, as adequate repairability should be part of a well engineered product.

 

[I7guy]

Yes for sure.
Cook just fanned product categories out into subcategories, each designed with deliberate limitations and cripplings to upsell potential customers to higher tier models - in order to have them spend more money than they originally intended to ... and in the process fill Apple's coffers. Extortion? Perhaps. Shareholders are happy. Customers maybe not as much.

Did you notice the last earnings call. Maybe customers aren’t happy but they are buying enough Apple products and services to have another record breaking quarter. Hundreds of Millions of unhappy customers buying hundreds of billions of Apple products in a quarter? Possible? Sure.

I wish!
My iPad Pro developed a blurry selfie cam (the lens glue separated from the backside of the screen glass) - a bit shy over 3 years after I got it - conveniently just after AppleCare ran out.
For that repair Apple quoted me $1,200 (!) - just for a selfie camera repair! Yikes!

My ipad pro m1 since 2021 and iPad 7th gen since 2019 have had no service issues to date and are still functional today.

Not as great a product as I had hoped.
And hopelessly over-engineered.
Their "repair" prices are ridiculous. Sure, technically it is not a "repair" but instead a complete exchange - yet that is exactly what is over-engineered about them. That they cannot be repaired.
That mindset is fine for a cheap $100 throwaway item, but a product that can cost $2,600 should be repairable at prices relative to the item that is broken. No one can tell me that the selfie cam costs $1,200...
It's just not well engineered, in my opinion, as adequate repairability should be part of a well engineered product.

The fact that your iPad had an issue is just anecdotal. All things are subject to breaking and you were unlucky. iPads are generally known for reliable hardware that goes the distance.

 

[Adelphos33]

Apple has privileged the iPad Pro with adaptation to them of the iPadOS interface (the basic iPad or the iPad Air do not needed that), with the first M processors of each generation to come out on the market and with the best screens available. But none of that has worked. I have an iPad Pro and the problem is iPad OS. It is not good for working with the flexibility and comfort of Mac OS. For some people it may be, but for many others do not. Take a look at the sales figures. The iPad Pro will not disappear in the short term, but Apple will put all its effort into MacBooks and MacOS. iPads will remain for what they are really unique and useful, which is to consume entertainment content and not as a general replacement for a laptop.

The iPad Air has 12 GB of RAM and an M4 chip. The iPad Pro either has 12 or 16 GM of RAM and an M5 Chip. Even when the iPad Pro had the M1 chip, the other iPads were not really behind in any meaningful way in terms of computing power. The iPad Air, in recent years, has always gotten the most recent M series chip shortly after the iPad Pro, and the jumps between chip years is minor. There is nothing special about the iPad Pro in terms of computing power relative to the rest of the iPad line - particularly the iPad Air. Screen, camera and microphones, sure, but not computing power. Any change that Apple could make to iPad OS that would make the iPad Pro more to your liking would also be available to the much cheaper iPad Air.

This is very different from say the MacBook Pro and the MacBook Air. There are many computing use cases where a MacBook Pro would be far better than a MacBook Air - this would obviously require the user adds a lot more spec to the MacBook Pro. But there is no spec available on the iPad Pro that would make it meaningfully more effective than an iPad Air - even if iPadOS were opened up.

 

[Dreamail]

Did you notice the last earnings call. Maybe customers aren’t happy but they are buying enough Apple products and services to have another record breaking quarter. Hundreds of Millions of unhappy customers buying hundreds of billions of Apple products in a quarter? Possible? Sure.

And did you notice that Apple's earnings are more and more reliant on services? Compared to services even iPhone, Mac and iPad sales are somewhat plateauing or not growing as much The only real continuous grownt sector Apple currently has is services.
And that for a traditional hardware company...

Or in other words, today's Apple gives a rat's ass about iPad sales. It's all about squeezing out more revenue from services from all the people who are locked into the iPhone eco system.

However, there is a growing trend to reduce expenses for services as people generally have less and less free income available these days. So it'll be interesting to see how this will pan out for Apple's earnings in a year or two.

And did you notice how the success of the MacBook Neo completely surprised Apple?
Who would have thought (they didn't!) that people want to opt for cheaper Macs (and are perfectly fine with them). This general trend would apply to iPads too presumably. Sadly Apple deliberately does not break down iPad sales, so it's hard to say how much they sell, but analysts concur in that the basic iPad model sells the most.

I do not think that these trends bode all too well for the introduction of a "MacBook Ultra" high-end model range...
That Ultra range might fall just as flat as the $17,000 first gen Apple Watch did...
We shall see.

The fact that your iPad had an issue is just anecdotal.

Sure, for you it's anecdotal.
For me it is an expensive kit that broke prematurely without my fault and that Apple wants to charge me $1,200 for, for a simple part repair.
Perhaps understandable that I will not be a returning customer...

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

This is bad news for consumers because it means no iPad Ultra for the majority of us who have now transitioned to iPadOS from macOS as our primary computing platform for ultimate productivity.

Most of you in that niche crowd using iPads for “ultimate productivity” probably make up a smaller group than the turnout at the annual Somerset Cat Tickling Convention.

 

[I7guy]

And did you notice that Apple's earnings are more and more reliant on services? Compared to services even iPhone, Mac and iPad sales are somewhat plateauing or not growing as much The only real continuous grownt sector Apple currently has is services.
And that for a traditional hardware company...

Sure things have pivoted in 2026. This is not 2007. Services is where it’s at. But my point still stands. Customers are buying into apples ecosystem.

Or in other words, today's Apple gives a rat's ass about iPad sales. It's all about squeezing out more revenue from services from all the people who are locked into the iPhone eco system.

Apple is squeezing customers in a very subtle way. They have wrung revenue from my pocket. And I’m not locked into the Apple ecosystem. I choose to be there. There’s a huge difference. I could have gotten a windows laptop instead I bought a neo.

However, there is a growing trend to reduce expenses for services as people generally have less and less free income available these days. So it'll be interesting to see how this will pan out for Apple's earnings in a year or two.

People have been singing that song since 2011.

And did you notice how the success of the MacBook Neo completely surprised Apple?
Who would have thought (they didn't!) that people want to opt for cheaper Macs (and are perfectly fine with them). This general trend would apply to iPads too presumably. Sadly Apple deliberately does not break down iPad sales, so it's hard to say how much they sell, but analysts concur in that the basic iPad model sells the most.

Well they put out a quality product, that performs reasonably at an entry level cost. Don’t think it surprised Apple. They did their homework. And to your point Toyota sells more cars than bmw.

I do not think that these trends bode all too well for the introduction of a "MacBook Ultra" high-end model range...
That Ultra range might fall just as flat as the $17,000 first gen Apple Watch did...
We shall see.

Maybe Apple shouldn’t be producing such a product or maybe they should. I don’t know.

Sure, for you it's anecdotal.
For me it is an expensive kit that broke prematurely without my fault and that Apple wants to charge me $1,200 for, for a simple part repair.
Perhaps understandable that I will not be a returning customer...

Well we each have our war stories. And sure one person making a claim on the internet is the very definition of anecdotal. Not doubting your experience but it wasn’t my experience.

 

[Dreamail]

Well they put out a quality product, that performs reasonably at an entry level cost. Don’t think it surprised Apple.

You might be thinking too positive on Apple's side here.
To quote from the last earnings call in regards to the Neo:
"sales were impacted by supply constraints 'driven by higher than expected levels of demand.'"

So Apple did not expect that kind of demand. They were surprised.
Their own planning and forecast was wrong.
That is rare, as Apple is usually quite solid when it comes to forecasts.

And that is exactly my point. Apple might have lost grip with reality for a bit.
They are all living their California lives, driving their expensive cars into their cozy high-end Apple offices - constantly drinking their own cool aid - not realizing how the rest of the world has shifted and people have started to tighten their belts.

You might argue that this is actually all good news for Apple as they are selling Neos like hotcakes.
Maybe so. And maybe most Neo buyers are indeed Windows switchers. Though Apple would never divulge these numbers...
So maybe every other Neo sold is actually an iPad Air or MacBook Air less sold - ultimately putting downward pressure on Apple's iPad and Mac margins.

I bet that Apple's success streak for high-end products like "iPad Pros" and the potential "MacBook Ultra" line is slowly starting to wane.
And maybe Apple already realized that with the Neo's unexpected success, which is exactly why they killed the Mac Pro and 32" Pro Display XDR a mere four weeks after the introduction of the Neo (and are now rumored to have also killed the "iPad Ultra")...

My guess is that Apple will slowly wind down the higher-end iPad and Mac products and push more and more for "Services".
Maybe they will even turn most macOS features into "Services".
macOS might still be "free" - but only the bare-bones no-frills version.
We might have to pay extra for "Siri", or have to endure Siri with ads...

 

[mlayer]

My guess is that Apple will slowly wind down the higher-end iPad and Mac products and push more and more for "Services".
Maybe they will even turn most macOS features into "Services".
macOS might still be "free" - but only the bare-bones no-frills version.
We might have to pay extra for "Siri", or have to endure Siri with ads...

If that happens that will be a response to customer interest. Everything starts with the device. The services are a "value-add" in business speak. Pro users are more likely to get additional value-adds because they have more disposable income. That's the way it's been since the industrial revolution began. If Pro sales slow, then either Apple has made products that don't cater to customer needs (iPhone Air presumably) or priced them too high for the market (Vision Pro, also presumably). That said, any consumer can buy Apple hardware without having to buy any services. The free tier of iCloud still exists, and if that's all you need bully for you.

 

[I7guy]

You might be thinking too positive on Apple's side here.
To quote from the last earnings call in regards to the Neo:
"sales were impacted by supply constraints 'driven by higher than expected levels of demand.'"

There is what Apple knew and what Apple said. Do you not believe within the first week Apple knew where these sales were trending? Especially with all of the overwhelmingly positive reviews on social media.

So Apple did not expect that kind of demand. They were surprised.

No, imo, they acted surprised.

Their own planning and forecast was wrong.
That is rare, as Apple is usually quite solid when it comes to forecasts.

Again, I believe Apple knew where this was headed. They might have adjusted there forecasts down as to not intentionally mislead people.

And that is exactly my point. Apple might have lost grip with reality for a bit.
They are all living their California lives, driving their expensive cars into their cozy high-end Apple offices - constantly drinking their own cool aid - not realizing how the rest of the world has shifted and people have started to tighten their belts.

I have no words for the above.😳

You might argue that this is actually all good news for Apple as they are selling Neos like hotcakes.
Maybe so. And maybe most Neo buyers are indeed Windows switchers. Though Apple would never divulge these numbers...
So maybe every other Neo sold is actually an iPad Air or MacBook Air less sold - ultimately putting downward pressure on Apple's iPad and Mac margins.

I do not believe that. I think the markets do not really overlap like that. Of course outside of the common tasks of check Facebook, check email, send a message the form and function of a neo vs an iPad is completely different.

I bet that Apple's success streak for high-end products like "iPad Pros" and the potential "MacBook Ultra" line is slowly starting to wane.

I don’t think so. The iPad Pro will continue to sell. We don’t know the numbers or the targets but you can be sure Apple will update the IPP with the M6.

And maybe Apple already realized that with the Neo's unexpected success, which is exactly why they killed the Mac Pro and 32" Pro Display XDR a mere four weeks after the introduction of the Neo (and are now rumored to have also killed the "iPad Ultra")...

Didn’t they kill the Pro Display XDR because of cheaper better tech. And as far as the Mac Pro we shall see what replaces it, if anything

My guess is that Apple will slowly wind down the higher-end iPad and Mac products and push more and more for "Services".

They will push for services but keep the high end products.

Maybe they will even turn most macOS features into "Services".
macOS might still be "free" - but only the bare-bones no-frills version.
We might have to pay extra for "Siri", or have to endure Siri with ads...

Haha. Siri with ads.

 

[dumastudetto]

Most of you in that niche crowd using iPads for “ultimate productivity” probably make up a smaller group than the turnout at the annual Somerset Cat Tickling Convention.

Probably not since iPads are routinely used in businesses for a variety of different tasks to serve customers, by pilots, by restauranteurs, by property maintenance companies, on-prem contractors, etc. Definitely more than the people who attend your annual cat tickling convention in Somerset.

Vastly more people own iPads than Macs, and iPads are the only big screen computers in their home.

The future of Mac is iPad Pro.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Probably not since iPads are routinely used in businesses for a variety of different tasks to serve customers, by pilots, by restauranteurs, by property maintenance companies, on-prem contractors, etc. Definitely more than the people who attend your annual cat tickling convention in Somerset.

Vastly more people own iPads than Macs, and iPads are the only big screen computers in their home.

The future of Mac is iPad Pro.

Sorry if my light hearted joke didn't land in your part of the world.

I am aware iPads are used like that, we use them where I work too for note taking and showing customers drawings and literature, but they are an addition to a computer, not a replacement entirely, unless someone has very basic and less demanding computational needs. The professions you listed there are not ones demanding a lot from a computer, and less so producing anything productive apart from basic documents. My sole computing device at home is an iPad Air and I use it for web browsing or media consumption. I couldn't do my job with it though and I doubt anybody in my field could. My wife uses a MacBook Pro and an iPad Pro and neither are capable of replacing the other as they are very good at what they are designed to do.

If the future of Mac is the iPad Pro, then the future is a Microsoft laptop for people who need a Mac OS and the additonal hardware.

 

[macfacts]

Just give me a 15” iPad Pro and I’ll buy it. I don’t need to fold it, wad it into a ball, or have it levitate.
Also a way to quit all open apps would be nice.

Tim could add a new "gesture", I suggest shaking the iPad like an etch-a-sketch

 

[dumastudetto]

Sorry if my light hearted joke didn't land in your part of the world.

I am aware iPads are used like that, we use them where I work too for note taking and showing customers drawings and literature, but they are an addition to a computer, not a replacement entirely, unless someone has very basic and less demanding computational needs. The professions you listed there are not ones demanding a lot from a computer, and less so producing anything productive apart from basic documents. My sole computing device at home is an iPad Air and I use it for web browsing or media consumption. I couldn't do my job with it though and I doubt anybody in my field could. My wife uses a MacBook Pro and an iPad Pro and neither are capable of replacing the other as they are very good at what they are designed to do.

If the future of Mac is the iPad Pro, then the future is a Microsoft laptop for people who need a Mac OS and the additonal hardware.

I don't see any humor in denigrating Apple products. But I accept your apology and you've regained my respect after explaining you do understand the productivity values of an iPad life. Thank you.

 

[Dreamail]

The future of Mac is iPad Pro.

I really wonder about that...

While it would be lovely to run macOS on M-class iPad Pros, I doubt these devices can ultimately replace MacBook Pros.
Unless the iPad Pro gains a 16" display, a bunch of ports and a clamshell design, similar to a MacBook Pro.

I am sure there are people who can get a lot of work done on an iPad Pro, but most of the iPads I see being used for work purposes are basically just "portable screens". They display to customers what products are offered, they can show fancy promotion videos, charts or spreadsheets showcasing the expected product development.

I also see people doing paint sketches, email and web browsing on them in coffee shops.
But I have not yet seen anyone using Final Cut or music production software on an iPad. Not even spreadsheet software. Let alone doing 3D modeling or 3D renders.

So I am not convinced the future of the Mac is a tablet form.
Not unless it gets all the physical features of a MacBook Pro. The screen size, the ports, the clamshell.

Sure one can always buy a protective case, but all-around protective cases are actually quite heavy.
My iPad Pro weighs 470 grams, and my plain case (no keyboard, just an all-around padded plastic plus magnets) weighs 260 grams. With the case the iPad is suddenly more than 55% heavier. If you hold it in your hands all the time, the 1 1/2 times weight is noticeably heavier and actually quite uncomfortable to hold for extended periods. My arms tire quickly. At which point the whole point of a "light tablet" goes away in my opinion. If you need to buy a heavy extra case to protect it.

Maybe once iPads go the way of the rumored "iPhone Fold", with a foldable screen design, they don't need a heavy case.
But then the extra engineering inside reduces the available battery space, so battery life becomes a concern...
Will such a tablet be able to provide the same battery life than a 16" MacBook Pro?
If not, I am not sure it can replace one.

 

[Adelphos33]

Probably not since iPads are routinely used in businesses for a variety of different tasks to serve customers, by pilots, by restauranteurs, by property maintenance companies, on-prem contractors, etc. Definitely more than the people who attend your annual cat tickling convention in Somerset.

Vastly more people own iPads than Macs, and iPads are the only big screen computers in their home.

The future of Mac is iPad Pro.

1) The business use cases you listed are all legitimate business use cases that the iPad, and iPad OS, are perfect for

2) None of the use cases you described (except maybe pilot stuff?) would run any better on an iPad Pro versus an iPad Air, iPad, or even iPad mini in most cases

3) There are also a lot of business use cases - namely heavy document editing or creation - that the Mac (or a Windows PC) are great for

This is why

1) Mac and iPad will remain separate, useful platforms in the eyes of most
2) iPad Pro is still a poor value - because it doesn't deliver a lot more than the iPad Air

 

[I7guy]

1) The business use cases you listed are all legitimate business use cases that the iPad, and iPad OS, are perfect for

2) None of the use cases you described (except maybe pilot stuff?) would run any better on an iPad Pro versus an iPad Air, iPad, or even iPad mini in most cases

3) There are also a lot of business use cases - namely heavy document editing or creation - that the Mac (or a Windows PC) are great for

This is why

1) Mac and iPad will remain separate, useful platforms in the eyes of most
2) iPad Pro is still a poor value - because it doesn't deliver a lot more than the iPad Air

Saying the iPad Pro is a poor value is akin to saying the high end MacBook m5 is a poor value. If you want the speed, connectivity and screen you buy it.

I don’t use my IPP m5 to the fullest, yet I bought one. To me it was worth every penny.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Saying the iPad Pro is a poor value is akin to saying the high end MacBook m5 is a poor value. If you want the speed, connectivity and screen you buy it.

I don’t use my IPP m5 to the fullest, yet I bought one. To me it was worth every penny.

I think what he means is the professions listed don't require hardware for demanding software needs and an iPad Pro is over specced really for what they need. I can relate to that as we have iPads in use in my company and in 2019 they were all iPad Pro's, but to save costs these are now Airs and iPad 11's. The same tasks are completed and I think that goes to show how capable iPads are from the very base specs now.

Someone working in a shop handling bookings and transations wouldn't need a Pro. A sales person on the road using SAP, showing catalogues, CAD drawings to customers wouldn't need a Pro. Property maintenance teams/managers using software to write reports, following an itinerary and show literature to customers don't need a Pro either. My wife has a Pro as an addition to her Mac for work and uses it for artworking and a third screen with her set up. I can see a need for certain professions but the ones that other guy listed were perhaps a perfect list of roles where a Pro is not necessary at all.

 

[Cesar Battistini]

You wont be able to run desktop apps on it because it was not deign for touch.

I can use a mouse and keyboard.

 

[snipr125]

Saying the iPad Pro is a poor value is akin to saying the high end MacBook m5 is a poor value. If you want the speed, connectivity and screen you buy it.

I don’t use my IPP m5 to the fullest, yet I bought one. To me it was worth every penny.

If you wanted the Tandem OLED display and exclusive first access to the M4/M5 chip (M5 was also released on base MBP at the same time) then you have to pay for the privilege. Defintely agree with you that they are worth every penny to me personally.

 

[bluedoggiant]

The 2020 iPad Pro is one of the best pieces of Apple hardware I've ever owned.

But the current OLED version has made an already questionable value proposition even worse, and tries to answer questions that few were asking, made worse by the hardware/software capability imbalance. Not once have I ever picked mine up and though that it should be thinner and more delicate.

My Pro is clearly showing the noticeable effects of age in terms of battery life, if not otherwise.

I could live without ProMotion, but going back to Touch ID is not negotiable, on any device.

Waiting for the closeout sales on the M5 when it is replaced seems to be the best path at this point, and made easier if it's as unpopular as perceived.

The Pro is once case where they have made it too good, and made it worse by trying to make it better with so little room to spare.

My M1 was a refurb and would do that again in a heartbeat, and I rarely go for refurb devices.

Not sure what you mean by OLED model hurting the value proposition, didn't think they raised the price or how the hardware/software capability is imbalanced any differently than the earlier models.