I need to re-quote this now-long-forgotten 🏆 trophy 🏆 reply.
More than 5 billion copies of the Bible have sold. Clearly "Facebook" and "PlayStations" are flops.
The Oculus Rift was released in 2016, as was the PlayStation VR. Both (including iterations over the years) were/are considerably less expensive. Both have had 7+ years to sell "millions".
It's interesting you can call something a flop before it's even released by comparing it to products that have been out for years and are much less expensive.
To use the old car analogy, is a Bentley Continental GT a flop because it doesn't sell as much as a Honda Civic?
The best selling single computer model in the world is probably the Commodore 64. Where's Commodore International now? [Hint: out of business 30 years ago]. The original Mac took almost 2 years to sell 500,000.
Things take time. Maybe this will be a flop. We don't know. Calling it one before it's even released is rather premature.
It's okay to not be interested in the AVP. You don't need to buy one. I won't buy one. I am interested to see where it goes though. It has the potential to be a product that will be highly influential over time. This is a really nice tech demo version of the product.
Given these produce the best Holodeck package today - at least a small percent of the population want it. The amount of technology crammed into this headset will take a long time to successfully enter a Holodeck with just something as lightweight as Oakley sunglasses. Especially if they are literally 10x better in picture quality and immersion comfort than a typical 3-figure-priced headset.
Even then, not everyone will want/need it.
But there will be a larger proportion of population as the demand goes up geometrically with price drops.
One Economics 101 indicates a pretty steep curve, e.g. graphs showing ~3x-10x more sales at half price in some product categories. People who say no at $3500 Version 1 are a wee bit slightly more likely say yes at $999 Version 3, for example. Even at the same price, the same people saying no to clunky Windows brick-tablets in 2005 began saying yes to iPads in 2015, y'know?
By 100x less eyestrain, some of the best existing expensive headsets (not Apple) are so much more eye-comfortable 3D (less eyestrain, more realistic 3D that you forget it's fake 3D) than cinema/3DTV fad screens watched via Disney3D/Real3D glasses already, and possibly Apple is one of them. Many people who hate 3D, may not already realize that some of the ergonomics have improved so much, that the highest-end headsets has already surpassed eye-comfort of 3D movies by a large margin for some content. Obviously, cheap VR headsets will still be uncomfortable and eyestraining, but there are those superlative headsets that are among the most eye-comfortable 3D you've ever seen. This does not apply to everyone, but, undoubtedly Apple probably focussed very carefully on this item; to de-gimmick it as much as possible.
And there's more than one price halvings avialable in that $3500 starting-pistol price, even still remaining at Apple premium after about two halvings.
The main thing is the dork factor, but we've got those pocket supercomputers called smartphones that we do crazy things with, such as taking photos of grocery items to literally wirelessly telegraph to our spouses to ask "is this the correct item?". We don't use a film camera, take a photo at the store, develop the film, go all the way back home, show the spouse the photo, ask if it is the correct grocery item. It may someday not be dorky anymore when we Holodeck with AppleOakley sunglasses occasionally, even if only 5% of the population does (still a big market if cheap enough). Who knows?