Apple in Online Film-Rental Deal with Fox Studio?

[hscottm]

As implied/asked by someone above, I think this will in fact be Steve's answer to the Format Wars. The fact that Apple hasnt brought out Blu-Ray yet anywhere, including in the MacPro line, suggests that they arent as pro-BluRay as their membership indicates.

Assuming the rumor is true, I would expect Steve to start by a side-by-side comparison of what is the same and different about HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, and note that the main differences are in capacity and multimedia capabilities (i.e., with respect to shipping players). The key thing the same in them is their support for common formats (eg MP2, H.264). And to point out that the disc options are just competing ways of delivering the same thing (H.264). So given that there is no clear winner, why take sides? He'll then nominate the shadow candidate - direct digital delivery of H.264, capacity-limited only by the storage on your device, and able to still do any of the internet-enabled/multimedia stuff offered already in HD-DVD.

He'll then suggest a lower price point than the current normal retail prices ($40) but close to Amazon prices ($25). I think the open question would be whether to match the "5 free movies with purchase of a player" promo --TV can already be had for less than the average HD-DVD or Blu-Ray player.

 

[Random Ping]

Remember, this is MacWorld.

They should really rename it AppleWorld

II wouldn't be surprised if this year's were only an iPhone update and an AppleTV update

I generally agree. I bet Apple unveils MS Exchange support for the iPhone, the first fully supported and native 3rd party apps for the iPhone (probably from a few software houses with early access to the SDK), and announced availability of the SDK. This will really break down a lot of barriers for people.

I love the purchase model for songs, but I hate it for movies (and even TV shows). I think video rental and HD content for TV will break down a lot of barriers there as well.

With relatively recent updates to the iMac and iLife suite, I think we will see very little on the consumer Mac side. There are the persistent rumors of an ultra compact Mac (maybe with no HD) or a touch screen tablet Mac, but neither of these excite me too much.

 

[lord patton]

I bet Apple unveils MS Exchange support for the iPhone, the first fully supported and native 3rd party apps for the iPhone (probably from a few software houses with early access to the SDK), and announced availability of the SDK. This will really break down a lot of barriers for people.

I love the purchase model for songs, but I hate it for movies (and even TV shows). I think video rental and HD content for TV will break down a lot of barriers there as well.

I agree completely. Along with the MS Exchange support, look for announcements of major partnerships with corporations who have begun mass deployment of iPhones for their workers.

Announcements of 3rd party apps? Definitely. Apple doesn't just announce, they create a show! When the apps come, there will be some marquee products at launch.

 

[gkarris]

As implied/asked by someone above, I think this will in fact be Steve's answer to the Format Wars. The fact that Apple hasnt brought out Blu-Ray yet anywhere, including in the MacPro line, suggests that they arent as pro-BluRay as their membership indicates.

Actually, there is a "third" camp. The "DVD is good enough, the industry will go internet download/mobile". Which seems to be the side Apple is taking.

People will continue to use DVD as they feel it is good enough, only the people with high-end equipment will go High-Def Discs.

Most will go to downloads (like Amazon Unbox with Tivo, or iTunes) and view the content on media players (like TV), media computers, or mobile devices...

 

[GregA]

I read an article the other day proposing an iTunes rental system something like a digital version of Netflix - pay a monthly fee for a set number of download slots, whenever you want to add a new movie just clear out one of your existing slots. In my opinion, this is the only type of digital rental service I would pay for.

The problem with this model is that if you have a high speed connection, then 2 download slots would be pretty well identical to 6 download slots. When it's a physical medium that requires postage, then 6 slots really equates to 3 times as many DVDs as 2 slots. The studios don't want people watching 3 times as much without paying more.

Also, I'd assume that Netflix pays the studios per dvd, not per slot etc. In that case, Netflix (or Apple) would lose on your model rather than the studios... but the end result is the same, it's not a plausible product.

For my money, a great combination would be the FairPlay system on DVDs rented from NetFlix. Then I can rent from NetFlix, copy the DRMed content from the DVD to my computer system (maybe with a 30 day life span), send the DVD back to NetFlix and get the next one. Repeat. This way I have a good collection of videos in my house (no downloads to worry about) that I can choose from depending on my mood.

I'm not sure if you're joking - but the studios would never allow you a model like this. They don't want you to rent something once and own it forever.

 

[GregA]

That's the one thing that bothers me. When everybody that has broadband starts downloading all these movies the tubes are going to get clogged. And if not clogged then throttled by companies like Comcast Cable. This will create a really bad experience.

This is a very real concern! And the problem is (surprisingly) more with the backbone than with the last mile. There are solutions - Apple could strategically place caching servers throughout ISP networks. Or they could use bittorrent with a design that only downloads/uploads within an ISPs network and in a single city.

I'm in Australia (so probably no rental or purchase for me!), but I'd want to see an option for downloading overnight. I have a download quota that gives much more off peak quota, so I'd prefer to tell my system to use that (unless I want it right away!)

Well it stands to reason that dial-up users wouldn't utilize a movie download service anyways. Even near DVD quality downloads could be several hundred megabytes in size, which would take days to download. This would be a purely broadband only affair.

Yes, home downloads won't work over dialup.

I wonder if Apple can do anything about that. I doubt it. However, it'd be nice to be able to order a movie online, then plug my iPod in at Starbucks and have it automatically download my movie purchase.. then when I get home have it upload it automatically.

Or forget starbucks specifically but use the same model - as a dialup user at home, go to work (or a friend's house - anywhere with broadband) and plug in my iPod, and have it download automatically.

I believe the average BB speed to be something like 1.5 Mbps (maybe it is higher now with FIOS popping up in lots of places). And even that is slow for movie downloads.

In Australia the line tests for any ADSL connection are for a minimum attenuation which should provide at least 1.5Mbps. So although our "official" average BB speed is 1.1Mbps, that's only because the telcos offer cheap deals for slower speeds.

The network can handle much more (1.5Mbps should be the MINIMUM) - indications are that the average is around 7Mbps. I'm not sure if the US is similar - do people pay less for a slower ADSL??

Anyway, 1.5Mbps is enough for close to DVD quality (most pirated movies on the net use 1.1Mbps or lower), but HD requires more. AppleTV can handle up to 5Mbps (used in fast motion scenes), so I'd expect HD to work well enough if you've got 4Mbps.

 

[Random Ping]

I'm not sure if you're joking - but the studios would never allow you a model like this. They don't want you to rent something once and own it forever.

When you move the content from the DVD with FairPlay to your computer system the clock starts ticking, so you only have 30 days before the data on the computer expires. Thus, you cannot keep the content forever. Likewise, since there are existing throttles in place via NetFlix, there is a maximum number of movies you can have on your system at any given time. Still, it would be nice to have say 10 movies I haven't watched queued up on my computer that I can watch at any given time.

Still, I don't expect the studios to support it. When a content provider requires DRM, they start with the presumption that their customer is a criminal, and they will be happy to make their customers unhappy (i.e., onerous DRM limitations and hoops) just in case their customer wants to exercise their criminal tendencies. For example, there have been a couple of recent examples where customers have purchased DRM content that requires periodic re-authentication, and then the company exits the business. You are then stuck with content that you cannot play. And of course there are "Buy access to a movies, but you can only watch it while streaming to your computer" -- a model that doesn't work if you have less than stellar network performance, want to watch the movie while disconnected from the network, or want to watch it on another device.

 

[fluidedge]

Remember, this is MacWorld. It's become a consumer show. Last year's only announcements were the iPhone and AppleTV. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's were only an iPhone update and an AppleTV update (with a related tie-in to rentals).

Macintosh updates have become the thing of WWDC and random seasonal events...

If i have to wait until WWDC 08 for a mac pro update, i'm going back to M$ and Dell!!

 

[CWallace]

Meanwhile, a digitally protected version of the film is also expected be included with DVD releases, allowing users to copy the movie easily to their iPods and iPhones, without resorting to "ripping" or otherwise converting the DVD into another format.

I just purchased the "Live Free or Die Hard" movie, which is made by FOX, and it came with an addition disc that had a digital copy for you to load onto your computer then sync with an iPod, iPhone, PSP or just leave on your computer for your enjoyment.

FOX has already started this on certain movies, this will be really cool to see done on every movie.

My special 2-disc edition of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix also comes with a PMP digital copy.

 

[elgruga]

$2.99 for 30 days is good, but I'd love to see a one-day rental for $1.49. I already get one day DVD rentals for $1.49 from the DVDPlay kiosk at my Safeway (frequently even cheaper with promos). I only grab movies the day I want to watch them (especially if I'm downloading them), so I only need a one-day rental.

Yeah, I agree.
This has to be about just grabbing the movie and watching it NOW.
Its 9.30, you see the movie on Tunes, calculate if there is time before going to bed, d/l it, and watch for $1.49.

But I doubt they will do that - the fees will be about 3.99 - 4.99 and you can keep it for a week or something.

Anyway it shakes down, its a good idea. I like the notion of putting it on the iphone for a flight, for example.
With reading glasses, it works for me!

 

[The Phazer]

I have to say, I'd be surprised if this were true.

I work for a major broadcaster, and we've asked (on a "our head meeting face to face with Jobs himself" level) for this several times, and Apple have always said they weren't interested in implementing it. We had to go with MS-DRM instead to get a timeout service.

Phazer

 

[Porco]

Oo! I like the idea of including the encoded file/s on the DVD! I wonder if it'd include all the extras and stuff though? Hmm.

Not so bothered about the rental stuff, I'd never use it and it'll likely be ages before it makes it to the UK anyway.

I agree. Also I WISH I had a fast enough net connection that downloading multi-GB files that expired within days was feasible! Either way, I don't think I'm interested in renting movies, I'm probably not typical but I buy more films and TV series on DVDs than I buy music CDs.

Including a professionally encoded video file for iPods on DVDs if a wonderful idea in theory, as long as it works as easily as it does for music. I don't think Handbrake is actually that difficult for the average person if they learn how to use it, but it's still obviously more time-consuming and less elegant than dragging a file from a disc onto your iPod in iTunes would be.

Naturally a DRM-free file would be best, but I think the movie studios and curiously enough Apple themselves seem like they're going to make most of the mistakes the music industry has in going online with digital distribution. Hopefully an 'iTunes Plus' equivalent for movies will not be too long in coming, because otherwise people will carry on using Handbrake etc when they run into issues.

 

[larryinfl]

Finally, a reason to buy an AppleTV!

I hope the rentals are true!

 

[Unspeaked]

If i have to wait until WWDC 08 for a mac pro update, i'm going back to M$ and Dell!!

Well, they'll probably just update it randomly (with or without an actual event) sometime before WWDC.

It's not like the old days when Apple would only announce updates and new products twice a year at their trade shows...

 

[CWallace]

The whole thing kind of strikes me like the original DIVX proposal, without the physical waste. Still, it has it's merits since it doesn't require physical media.

On one hand, it takes a day or more to get a DVD from Netflix and some time to get one from the local video rental store. So a multi-hour download is not quite the deal-breaker some may feel it is and 30 days should be plenty of time for folks to "queue" a number of downloads for future viewing.

On the other, cable and IPTV(?) systems can deliver a movie immediately, streaming it to you in real-time and allowing functions like pausing and FF/RR. I can only guess the FF/RR commands are handled at the head-end since you can do this on non-DVR machines so there would be no local storage (of any great note).

If you can use your tv to "stream" the rental from iTunes like you can a movie from your Mac/PC, then the concept would likely appeal to the "video on demand" crowd since it seems likely you could fill the HDD faster then real-time so you'd have the whole movie before you were finished watching it. You just would not be able to FF beyond the stream.

 

[hscottm]

Actually, there is a "third" camp. The "DVD is good enough, the industry will go internet download/mobile". Which seems to be the side Apple is taking.

People will continue to use DVD as they feel it is good enough, only the people with high-end equipment will go High-Def Discs.

Most will go to downloads (like Amazon Unbox with Tivo, or iTunes) and view the content on media players (like TV), media computers, or mobile devices...

great point. I didnt mean to imply Apple HAD to go hi-def, but my post suggests that. Regardless I agree he'd say the format war is moot.

The only catch I see is that really Apple TV is a hi-def device. It doesnt have "standard def" outputs (and you have to trick it into doing 480i resolution). Thus my thoughts were geared towards "if we want to save the apple tv hobby device"..

 

[Unspeaked]

great point. I didnt mean to imply Apple HAD to go hi-def, but my post suggests that. Regardless I agree he'd say the format war is moot.

The thing about Apple is that its got very close ties to the film and broadcast industry, so you'd think they'd always be on the bleeding edge with this stuff.

If I recall correctly, they had DVD drives and burners well before the PC market (back in the first days of the G4!).

Of course, that was back before Apple become a content provider with a whole different agenda. It sorta reminds me of the whole deal where Sony was making more money selling CD burners and portable music players a few years ago than records, so their electronics arm totally ignored the requests of their music arm to help with piracy!

 

[Virgil-TB2]

hardware DRM

The thing about Apple is that its got very close ties to the film and broadcast industry, so you'd think they'd always be on the bleeding edge with this stuff.

If I recall correctly, they had DVD drives and burners well before the PC market (back in the first days of the G4!).

Of course, that was back before Apple become a content provider with a whole different agenda. It sorta reminds me of the whole deal where Sony was making more money selling CD burners and portable music players a few years ago than records, so their electronics arm totally ignored the requests of their music arm to help with piracy!

I could be wrong, but as far as I understand a big part of the reason Apple might not want to support BluRay or HD-DVD is that both of them require hardware DRM throughout the computer or display system being used before a disc will play.

I could totally see Steve Jobs not liking the idea of putting DRM chips in every PowerBook just because Universal or Sony says they should.

Also, this kind of 24/7, DRM-based checking of every single data stream and interface in the computer (while it's trying to run), is one of the main reasons why Vista is such a slow POS.

Personally, if Apple ever does implement BluRay or HD-DVD, I will start looking at other OS's the very next day.

 

[Virgil-TB2]

... The FOX digital copy will only work on WMP. However, converting this is simple.

I think this points out the flaw in such a system.

You go to the store and buy three DVD's, when you get them home you realise that two are for Mac and one only plays on Windows.

Unless there is a standard digital format that applies to these portable copies that are being put on the disc it will just cause more format problems. Since no movie studio is likely going to support open standards, perhaps the only solution is the (new) AppleTV will have to have enough horsepower to transcode the discs in the wrong format and/or rip a digital copy of *any* DVD inserted into the AppleTV?

 

[SPUY767]

Well, most NTSC DVDs are just 720x480 anyway, so it's not like there is really all that much difference.

That's because Pixels on older televisions are taller than they are wide, and 720x480 on an old TV actually ends up being 4:3. Most DVD's these days aren't even 720x480. They are only as tall as they need to be. If you manage to get one of the crappily encoded DVD's from several years ago, the ones that are blackbarred on the top and bottom to fit a 4:3 TV, it will look like crap on a new 16:9 TV. Thankfully, once any modern DVD player is set up properly, it handles the resolution for us. Still, however, DVD's have a greater horizontal resolution than vertical which is a holdover for the inadequacies of the original NTSC format.

 

[MikeTheC]

I think this points out the flaw in such a system.

You go to the store and buy three DVD's, when you get them home you realise that two are for Mac and one only plays on Windows.

Unless there is a standard digital format that applies to these portable copies that are being put on the disc it will just cause more format problems. Since no movie studio is likely going to support open standards, perhaps the only solution is the (new) AppleTV will have to have enough horsepower to transcode the discs in the wrong format and/or rip a digital copy of *any* DVD inserted into the AppleTV?

Thank God for the Internet, and thank God I don't believe in participating in the mindlessness of Hollywierd and the Entertainment Injusticetry.

 

[mcs37]

A good precursor to subscription

Paying $3/movie is a good start -- and will get Apple into a position where they can offer a subscription service later.

I'm tired of dealing with optical media from Blockbuster/NetFlix and having to put them in the mail. I think the best solution is a subscription service, $15/month or even $20, where you can have three downloaded at a time. Then I could queue them all up at work and have my home computer download them. I walk home, turn on the Apple TV, and I'm off to the races! No more DVD required.

Although I do like the DVD features -- it would be cool if I could get the whole DVD and not just the film.