People, step outside yourselves and look at this from the seller's end of things.
Apple wants to sell tons of these Tablets. I've heard 10M in one year is the goal. Apple wants to make the Apple margin on all their sales. Apple knows that pricing is an important variable regardless of how great this thing might seem. So, it is easy to imagine the OPTION for a subsidized version. That's how the masses that want a "cheap" price can get the latest & greatest for just a few hundred dollars... just like the iPhone. Yes, that cheap price comes with a contract, but Apple has a TOTAL (we want our margin) price they want for this thing. Either YOU pay that total, or you plus a subsidizing company pay it. Your choice.
It should be obvious that AT&T's network is fairly overloaded. I see much too much gripes about it on this site, other sites, and in the press. If you are Apple you know this too. If Apple wants to keep ramping up the sales of iPhones and now this Tablet year over year, can AT&T build out their network fast enough to handle the coming additional load? Worse, does AT&T even WANT to do that?
Meanwhile, there is this other "whole" network, advertising "there's a map for that" very, very obviously making the point that their 3G is in many more places than AT&T. Remembering that Apple's goal is to sell many more iPhones (and Tablets) this coming year... noting that AT&T's network seems increasingly constrained to support that sales goal... and noting that the exclusivity contract with AT&T is apparently up for ending... it only makes sense to build BOTH 3G options into this new Tablet. That opens up a whole other market of buyers hooked to Verizon enough that they don't want to switch to AT&T. And I saw yesterday that that market is apparently 80M people deep.
Those with AT&T interested in iPhones have probably got one by now. Those with Verizon wanting an iPhone so bad that they would cancel, pay, and switch have mostly done so. Those with Verizon who won't switch are a very ready market hungry for the wonders of an iPhone or iPhone-like device on the Verizon network. Apple would be foolish not to build BOTH into this Tablet (and into the next iPhone too). It's not like building both in adds much cost to the hardware.
So, following this logic, here's what I expect related to the Tablet:
- OPTIONAL 3G, meaning cheaper price with contract, but "expensive" without (let iPhone with and without pricing be your guide to guess your Tablet price... my guess is $799 without a contract)
- OPTIONAL 3G in the same Tablet build (not 2 separate models) making it 3G compatible for BOTH AT&T and Verizon (and others). Among obvious benefits, that makes one model sellable to the 80M Verizon subs, plus capable of being sold and/or used anywhere in the rest of the world.
- Verizon will have a short speaking part at the event welcoming this new device into the mix, praising Apple, and so on (then no more iPhone-slighting commercials).
Exercising your option to NOT buy one with a contract (by laying out the TOTAL price Apple will want for this thing up front... and probably griping about it), you'll have the rich access experience anytime you are near a good free wifi (but hopefully wimax) access point, but you won't have the access the internet anywhere at anytime experience you can get with 3G.
AT&T might (that's MIGHT) roll out a plan to let iPhone subscribers add a Tablet to their plan:
- for an extra monthly fee (but maybe not quite as much as adding a second iPhone) OR
- for a one-time (ahem "setup" fee) so that it shares your iPhone contract... probably in a "use one or the other but not both at the same time" arrangement
...probably with a renewed contractual commitment of up to 24 months. Why? If the exclusivity deal is going to end, they'll want to re-lock you up for another 24-month term, and they'll be motivated to make some concessions on monthly cost to do so.
I expect phone functionality to be included in this device so that a person who would want to use this as their phone (too) could... not by holding it up to their ear, but by using earbuds with mic much like using a laptop as a phone. That way those who want their phone and want a Tablet but don't want 2 contracts, could opt for just a Tablet and let it also be their new, next generation phone. Furthermore, this functionality would allow Verizon to advertise this as the "iPhone has come to Verizon" built into the new Apple Tablet, which could grab a lot of sales of this even before the regular iPhone is available to Verizon subs. I, for one, am most interested in this particular feature, as I find the iPhone too small, and would welcome a Tablet-like device to (also) cover that base.
Lastly, no one should go into this imagining any kind of free 3G "like the Kindle" (Apple won't/can't eat the 3G cost of iTunes media that is tens to hundreds of times bigger than Kindle media). No one should imagine that AT&T or Verizon will shoot themselves in the foot to give us a super cheap full 3G option just to help Apple sell more Tablets. And no one should imagine that Apple would be foolish enough to lock this device into a REQUIRED 3G contract when there is so little reason to do so; by making both options available, they can sell to the maximum possible audience.