Apple Lowers Revenue Guidance for Q1 2019 Citing 'Fewer iPhone Upgrades' Than Anticipated

[ipponrg]

Apple replaced the battery on my 6s and then 11 months later I bought the max. People can claim anything in the internet.

Apple didn't replace the battery on my 6S, and I ordered the X prior to its launch date. I'm not sure what your point is as usual. Apparently you are not allowed to provide an anecdote on an internet because "people can claim anything in the internet."
[doublepost=1546712410][/doublepost]

They were throttling it because peak power draw was shutting down phones. Also, iOS 11 ran worse than 10 what are you talking about?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batterygate

Seems to happen in 10.2?

My iPhone 6S is still on 10.x as we speak. It is noticeably slower in its UX on its launch version which is iOS 9.x. When I upgraded to 10.x on my iPhone 6S, the performance was bad enough such that I yearned to upgrade to the iPhone X prior to its release.

 

[john123]

Seeing this trending on Twitter this morning

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/technology/apple-iphone-replacement-mom.html

Solid piece. And other than not being a woman or living in Ohio, it describes me perfectly too—right down to still having a 6S. Money is not an issue, and in fact most of my earned income these days comes from consulting for Silicon Valley. You'd think I'd be a prime upgrade candidate, right?

But I just feel very "meh" about the whole thing.

Of course, the plural of "anecdote" is not "data." It's just "anecdotes." But there are enough people echoing similar thoughts and concerns that it would be foolish to dismiss them.

As I've mentioned a couple times, not nearly enough responsibility for current trends gets put where it belongs: the cell carriers. They pulled off a brilliant marketing ploy in their approach to removing contracts and upgrade cycles. The ironic thing is that they got credit from lots of people for offering lower prices and more choice when in reality, all they did was boost their profits while hosing smartphone manufacturers.

 

[ipponrg]

Seeing this trending on Twitter this morning

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/technology/apple-iphone-replacement-mom.html

Waiting for people to point out that this is an internet post, and it has no relevance.

 

[john123]

Waiting for people to point out that this is an internet post, and it has no relevance.

I beat you to it, although I'd like to think I did it elegantly.

 

[ipponrg]

I beat you to it, although I'd like to think I did it elegantly.

Absolutely. I'm definitely more direct and like to call out things in front of people's faces.

 

[I7guy]

Apple didn't replace the battery on my 6S, and I ordered the X prior to its launch date. I'm not sure what your point is as usual. Apparently you are not allowed to provide an anecdote on an internet because "people can claim anything in the internet."

That is exactly the point. As usual people can claim anything on the internet. No one is exempted.
[/QUOTE]

 

[I7guy]

Waiting for people to point out that this is an internet post, and it has no relevance.

Let me help out here. It’s a great op-Ed piece.

 

[rwh63]

Forbes:

Lets Get Ready For The iPhone SE 2

The question many are asking is if Tim Cook will stay on course with high-priced high-margin handsets, or makes a move to capture more sales and market share. if the later, then the time is right for Apple to admit the mistake of cancelling the iPhone SE, and resume the line with the iPhone SE 2, perhaps as early as March 2019. Ben Lovejoy argues the case:

The bottom line is that if Apple wants to resume growth in the world’s most populous market, it’s going to need to respond – and part of that response will need to be around iPhone pricing. Apple needs something to sit where the iPhone SE did: a modern phone at around the $400 mark.

And what is bad news for Apple just might turn out to be good news for its customers. I’d previously given up hope of an iPhone SE 2 – but that was before we knew just how deep a hole Apple was in when it comes to Chinese sales. What sells there is new and shiny, so the company can’t get away with its India strategy of selling older handsets.

More at 9to5Mac. I also argued this week that Apple’s saviour could be the SE2:

The SE debuted six months after the launch of the iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus. At that point it was clear that the iPhone 6 Plus was not the dawn of a brave new world that would lead to continually increasing sales - it had simply given the choice of a larger screened iPhone to consumers who would normally have settled for the one size fits all approach. The iPhone 6S family was falling short… at which point the cavalry of the iPhone SE came over the hill, those who wanted a smaller screened but modern iPhone were satisfied, and sales, while not rising, at least stabilized.

With the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Plus failing to make significant inroads, and the iPhone XR having to be marketed at a $300 discount (albeit with an obscured trade-in clause), Tim Cook needs his cavalry.

Will he be humble enough to admit that Apple needs the iPhone SE 2 as quickly as possible?

 

[chooyoshi]

In 2007, phones were subsidized by the phone carriers. That's not the case anymore, hence higher prices. That said, Apple's prices have become ludicrous the last couple of years.

they still are in some countries like Singapore, Japan

 

[bobob]

Here's a great editorial just published by AppleInsider:

Apple note sends media pundits into a fit of histrionic gibberish

They especially call out TheVerge for their misleading reporting, but they could just as easily have gone after MacRumors.

Definitely worth the read!

 

[haydn!]

Here's a great editorial just published by AppleInsider:

Apple note sends media pundits into a fit of histrionic gibberish

They especially call out TheVerge for their misleading reporting, but they could just as easily have gone after MacRumors.

Definitely worth the read!

Whilst this one is fair and mostly on point. I often find Apple Insider editorials difficult to take seriously.

They often attack critics of Apple with a very rose tinted perspective that makes it either feel paid for or just fan boy gibberish. And the writing style is not to my taste, it’s pretentious and the over use of similies make its feel like the writer tried too hard to cover up the fact they actually had very little to say. The article could been half the length and delivered the same message.

 

[Abazigal]

Whilst this one is fair and mostly on point. I often find Apple Insider editorials difficult to take seriously.

They often attack critics of Apple with a very rose tinted perspective that makes it either feel paid for or just fan boy gibberish. And the writing style is not to my taste, it’s pretentious and the over use of similies make its feel like the writer tried too hard to cover up the fact they actually had very little to say. The article could been half the length and delivered the same message.

I find that with Appleinsider articles, the gloating’s half the fun.

 

[The Game 161]

Here's a great editorial just published by AppleInsider:

Apple note sends media pundits into a fit of histrionic gibberish

They especially call out TheVerge for their misleading reporting, but they could just as easily have gone after MacRumors.

Definitely worth the read!

Macrumours only report from other sites though so no reason to come after them...

 

[Rob_2811]

Whilst this one is fair and mostly on point. I often find Apple Insider editorials difficult to take seriously.

They often attack critics of Apple with a very rose tinted perspective that makes it either feel paid for or just fan boy gibberish. And the writing style is not to my taste, it’s pretentious and the over use of similies make its feel like the writer tried too hard to cover up the fact they actually had very little to say. The article could been half the length and delivered the same message.

The bold part applies to a lot of these sites. The same can be said of iMore and some of the opinion pieces on 9to5Mac, they are effectively fan sites. Written by partizans for partizans, not the kind of places you get objective opinions.

 

[pmore]

Steve Jobs predicted this:

“they cared about making a lot of money… they got very greedy and instead of following the original trajectory of the original vision which was to make this thing an appliance and get this out there to as many people as possible, they went for profits, and they made outlandish profits for about 4 years, one of the most profitable companies in America for 4 years, and what that cost them was their future, because what they should have been doing was making rational profits…”

Starts at minute 38:00:

It's crazy how they don't seem to care. Steve said it all.

 

[I7guy]

It's crazy how they don't seem to care. Steve said it all.

In order for apple to be making the kind of money it has been making, apple had to rely on one thing. Customers buying apple products and services.

Apple had to produce a product customers wanted to buy and customers had to want a product apple manufactured. There is no mystery. Peter Drucker 101.

With 250 million customers and large number of shareholders and many “armchair ceos” on Internet forums there will never be a universal agreement on what direction Apple should take.

 

[Steve121178]

Forbes:

Lets Get Ready For The iPhone SE 2

The question many are asking is if Tim Cook will stay on course with high-priced high-margin handsets, or makes a move to capture more sales and market share. if the later, then the time is right for Apple to admit the mistake of cancelling the iPhone SE, and resume the line with the iPhone SE 2, perhaps as early as March 2019. Ben Lovejoy argues the case:

The bottom line is that if Apple wants to resume growth in the world’s most populous market, it’s going to need to respond – and part of that response will need to be around iPhone pricing. Apple needs something to sit where the iPhone SE did: a modern phone at around the $400 mark.

And what is bad news for Apple just might turn out to be good news for its customers. I’d previously given up hope of an iPhone SE 2 – but that was before we knew just how deep a hole Apple was in when it comes to Chinese sales. What sells there is new and shiny, so the company can’t get away with its India strategy of selling older handsets.

More at 9to5Mac. I also argued this week that Apple’s saviour could be the SE2:

The SE debuted six months after the launch of the iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus. At that point it was clear that the iPhone 6 Plus was not the dawn of a brave new world that would lead to continually increasing sales - it had simply given the choice of a larger screened iPhone to consumers who would normally have settled for the one size fits all approach. The iPhone 6S family was falling short… at which point the cavalry of the iPhone SE came over the hill, those who wanted a smaller screened but modern iPhone were satisfied, and sales, while not rising, at least stabilized.

With the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Plus failing to make significant inroads, and the iPhone XR having to be marketed at a $300 discount (albeit with an obscured trade-in clause), Tim Cook needs his cavalry.

Will he be humble enough to admit that Apple needs the iPhone SE 2 as quickly as possible?

Won't happen as it would take further sales away from the Xr in an already overcrowded market.

 

[mtneer]

Scary news for iPhone users. Apple will be under pressure to make you buy a new phone. You know what that means.

iOS 13 sounds so much more ominous now. What will Apple's software engineers unleash on older iPhones?

 

[AgentOSX]

I will not.

Spec-for-spec, if you show me just a 25% Apple Tax, I'll buy you the product! Did you see the post I paid $699 for a Mini with a 5400 RPM spinning drive?


You owe me a computer:

Dell XPS 13, $1849.99 special offer.

• 8th Gen Intel Core 17-8550U Processor
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(Regular price 1999)

vs

• 2.3 GHz Intel Core i5 Quad-Core
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• Force Touch Trackpad
• macOS High Sierra
• $2149 ($0 OH sales tax collected on this item)

 

[Radon87000]

What drastic decrease? Apple didn't go anywhere, guidance is guidance. Their prediction was wrong. They didn't make their guidance.

The sales have declined. That's all there is to it. The customers have sent Apple a message that their phones are overpriced and not worth it.

User controlled power management?

No. This is secretly throttling the customer's phone who has no idea that his battery is at fault and he goes out and buys a new iPhone. Cook himself confirmed this when he said that one of the reasons the sales declined is because now that people understood the slow phone is a consequence of the battery, they stopped buying new ones

The articles are only clickbait, in your (subjective) opinion because they don't support a narrative of planned obsolescence. These "clickbait" articles show android phones just shutdown with marginal batteries. There's no way around that "fact". As far as suits, it's much easier to file a suit than to win one.

The articles were nothing more than a collection of forum links. Do you have anything official? I mean a lawsuit, an apology letter? An official investigation? You better believe that the lawyers would be working overtime trying to cash in on this but I don't see this anywhere

I don't claim android phones are shutting down. The internet is claiming that and I can cite links where this is happening. Only you seem to be saying apple is the only manufacturer with bad batteries (note 7, remember them?).

Those articles are linking to support forums where people come out to complain and these websites publish a collection of these links for clicks. Look at this for instance-

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasone...cards-have-a-serious-problem-they-keep-dying/

There are a ton of articles all over the internet that supposedly all the 2080ti cards are dying which couldn't be further from the truth. That doesnt make any of this true. Similarly those shutdown articles are worthless until something concrete like a factual Geekbench score, investigations are there

No he said it may be a contributing factor, which is different than being the sole reason. Apple doing the right thing has imo, upped the ante for customer service and customer longevity in the long run.

If he says its a contributing factor, this means prior to this people were upgrading their phones because they had no knowledge their battery was failing. At least when the Android phone shuts down, the user would go and get the phone fixed. If the phone slows down, naturally people assume it to be age which increases the upgrade rate

You were claiming they were my numbers, which was flat out incorrect.

But you were supporting the idea that the profit margins were the same which means you agreed those numbers were accurate

I'll be first in line for the update.

And consequently the first in line for the 2019 iPhone just as Apple planned for iOS 13

 

[I7guy]

The sales have declined. That's all there is to it. The customers have sent Apple a message that their phones are overpriced and not worth it.

Let's see the facts about apple quarterly revenue declining in the last 7 years.

No. This is secretly throttling the customer's phone who has no idea that his battery is at fault and he goes out and buys a new iPhone. Cook himself confirmed this when he said that one of the reasons the sales declined is because now that people understood the slow phone is a consequence of the battery, they stopped buying new ones

What secretly? This was documented in the release notes and became a permanent feature of ios 11. Cook himself said that China was the biggest factor in not meeting the guidance. (Not the same as a revenue decline).

The articles were nothing more than a collection of forum links. Do you have anything official? I mean a lawsuit, an apology letter? An official investigation? You better believe that the lawyers would be working overtime trying to cash in on this but I don't see this anywhere

Anything can be spun anyway. Are youtube videos "official"? No they are anecdotal. So the conclusion is because the lawyers didn't have a class action suit, this is fake news. Got it. I'll remember that in the future.

Those articles are linking to support forums where people come out to complain and these websites publish a collection of these links for clicks. Look at this for instance-

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasone...cards-have-a-serious-problem-they-keep-dying/

There are a ton of articles all over the internet that supposedly all the 2080ti cards are dying which couldn't be further from the truth. That doesnt make any of this true. Similarly those shutdown articles are worthless until something concrete like a factual Geekbench score, investigations are there

So basically none of what is on the internet is true? I don't understand what you are conveying. Or if there isn't a class action lawsuit it must not be true?

If he says its a contributing factor, this means prior to this people were upgrading their phones because they had no knowledge their battery was failing. At least when the Android phone shuts down, the user would go and get the phone fixed. If the phone slows down, naturally people assume it to be age which increases the upgrade rate

A contributing factor could mean anything. It could mean $10 of revenue. Unless you know the numbers all that is happening is just some speculation.

But you were supporting the idea that the profit margins were the same which means you agreed those numbers were accurate

Based on the the availability of no official information, it seems everybody who has been saying apple has been raising prices has been wrong. According to others who have analyzed the published speculation estimates apples has been keeping prices more or less in-line for the last few years. Take it or leave it. Can't have it both ways.

And consequently the first in line for the 2019 iPhone just as Apple planned for iOS 13

Curious as to why you care how I spend my money? If I see a good value/price proposition, I'll spend my money on an upgrade.

 

[Abazigal]

Macrumours only report from other sites though so no reason to come after them...

That’s technically called reblogging, not reporting.

 

[Bawstun]

If iPhone sales fell last quarter, that means iPhone sales have fallen in 6 of the last 12 quarters. Sales of iPhone have declined year over year since 2015 - when they released the iPhone 6. iPhone makes up 2/3 of Apple’s revenue.

This is a huge problem.

 

[AgentOSX]

If iPhone sales fell last quarter, that means iPhone sales have fallen in 6 of the last 12 quarters. Sales of iPhone have declined year over year since 2015 - when they released the iPhone 6. iPhone makes up 2/3 of Apple’s revenue.

This is a huge problem.

You analysis is wrong, your stated conclusion is terminally flawed.

You are not counting seasonality. Of course anything electronic is going to have more calendar Q4 sales than a Q3 just because of the giving season/EOYs. That is why you compare quarter-to-quarter over years, not quarter-by-quarter. In that respect, they have ONE quarter with a decline, less than 1M units - Q118 vs Q117, but in Q118 they actually made more money.

 

[k0bayashi]

Good. Time for Tim to stop the grift. Price products appropriately. Customers first, not shareholders. A return to the days of a 30% 'Apple Tax' (as opposed to whatever eye-watering number it is at now) is long overdue.

I hope customers are top priority.