Apple noticed low adoption / is strong arming iOS 26+

[thadoggfather]

in the iOS 12.5.8, iOS 15.8.6, and iOS 18.7.4 release notes, Apple says:

This update extends the certificate required by features such as iMessage, FaceTime, and device activation to continue working after January 2027.

—

The implications of this update are insane and scummy tbh. essentially anyone on a device that can support iOS 26 will be forced to update to a later version by January 2027 or apple services will stop working. And you can’t update to these newest versions with latest certificate *unless* you have a device that only goes up to 12/15/18 geez.

So if you’re staying behind purposefully on say iOS 18, even the last one you could grab 18.7.3, you only have a year before you can either OTA to some extended support EOL iOS 26 security update or presumably iOS 27 by then since we are talking about Jan 2027 deadline

EDIT 2/4/26:
Upon further review, there is also past precedent for this in iOS 7 days despite peoples' repeated, committed denial of it (or in many cases incorrectly interpreting the 'argument' I've outlined based on release notes and 18.7.4 that has the new certs not being signed specifically for IOS 26 capable devices):

While FaceTime does work with iOS 6.1.6, that particular update is not available to recent devices that are able to run iOS 7, which means iOS 6 users with newer devices who wish to access FaceTime must upgrade to iOS 7.

iOS 6 Users on Devices Able to Run iOS 7 Must Upgrade to Fix FaceTime

Apple today released a new support document, detailing the issue behind the recent problems some iOS 6 users have been experiencing with FaceTime. According to Apple, a bug resulting from an expired device certificate has rendered FaceTime unusable on older versions of iOS and the only solution...

www.macrumors.com

EDIT 4/1: due to massive onslaught of DarkSword exploits Apple shifted gears and released iOS 18.7.7 for iOS 26 capable devices for people still on iOS 18 and earlier versions

 

[TokyoKiller]

Tell me how you turned Apple providing updates to devices that are over 10+ years old into some conspiracy that Apple is trying to force people to upgrade their software.

Apple did not anticipate that iPhone 5s and 6 models from 2014/2025 would still be out in the wild in large numbers enough to support them beyond the original support window, hence needing to update the certificates to allow those customers to continue using Apple services such as iMessage and FaceTime.

 

[TokyoKiller]

Tell me how you turned Apple providing updates to devices that are over 10+ years old into some conspiracy that Apple is trying to force people to upgrade their software.

Apple did not anticipate that iPhone 5s and 6 models from 2014/2025 would still be out in the wild in large numbers enough to support them beyond the original support window, hence needing to update the certificates to allow those customers to continue using Apple services such as iMessage and FaceTime.

As for the iOS18 part of this, it is not abnormal for a company to have to move on in terms of support at some point so it can introduce new features and functions. If you choose to stay on iOS18, you will not be able to use certain services at some point.

I also have been running iOS 26 since the summer and while I see what people are complaining about, the longer people choose to avoid upgrading the less data Apple has to resolve issues and iron out things that people are hesitant to upgrade for.

I recently met with my family and most of them are holding out on upgrading because "TikTok" and not because of any logical reasoning or proven point.

 

[HouseLannister]

essentially anyone on a device that can support iOS 26 will be forced to update to a later version by January 2027 or apple services will stop working.

Did you read what you quoted? The OSes were originally going to stop at the end of 2026. They have been renewed beyond that now. That's a good thing. Nothing "scummy" going on here.

 

[Trader05]

Did you read what you quoted? The OSes were originally going to stop at the end of 2026. They have been renewed beyond that now. That's a good thing. Nothing "scummy" going on here.

Exactly. It wouldnt be a surprise if they push another update next year.

 

[johannnn]

in the iOS 12.5.8

Duuuuude. You're complaining about something in iOS 12? 🤣

 

[thadoggfather]

Did you read what you quoted? The OSes were originally going to stop at the end of 2026. They have been renewed beyond that now. That's a good thing. Nothing "scummy" going on here.

Exactly. It wouldnt be a surprise if they push another update next year.

Duuuuude. You're complaining about something in iOS 12? 🤣

I don't think you understand the nuance to the situation. It doesn't just impact IOS 12 lol.

its IOS 12, IOS 15, and IOS 18. And there's more, this is the clincher:

If* you have a device that only goes up to 12, 15, or 18 and will not be supported further like cannot receive upgrades beyond that, you have the ability to OTA to latest .8, .6, .4 updates and can continue using Apple services just fine.

However** If you have a device that goes beyond those, IE you are on 18.7.3 (like on an iPhone 16 Pro or iPad Pro M4) that came out in mid December 2025 (just a month ago), you are now stuck on 18.7.3 unless you go to IOS 26+. You will *NOT* receive the OTA to 18.7.4, and if you stay on 18.7.3 through Jan 2027 apple services will then stop working because 18.7.3 is on a certificate that expires in 12 months.

So if you thought you'd "stay on IOS 18 for years" for a device that can be upgraded further and be fine (not receiving the new features / security updates aside) you'd be wrong with this new certificate only offered on devices that are not IOS 26+ supported.

If you choose to stay on iOS18, you will not be able to use certain services at some point.

Yes, that is the whole point of this thread.
Not being able to use iMessage, FaceTime, or even activating a device if it's sat in the box as old retail inventory being cleared out is not really a great proposition. I also wonder if that extends to News, and Music and the likes.

I dont think there is a previous precedent for them to be doing this. Seems to coincide timing wise with locking people out of ability to OTA to 18.7.3 with beta profile who are on <26 recently, and comparatively low adoption rate of iOS 26. Ideally they just make the software less of a dumpster fire so people aren't as hesitant to move up versions lol but Apple gonna Apple.

 

[HouseLannister]

that is the whole point of this thread.

But that wasn't the point of Apple's announcement. So citing a patch meant to help people avoid obsolescence seems a way to just continue the argument that you don't like Liquid Glass. I get the hate, but turning a good announcement into a negative to further support your own narrative seems dishonest. If you are on 18.7.x and 18.7.4 isn't being offered to you, then you can jump on iOS 26 now or wait for iOS 27 in the fall, well before January 2027. And if you insist on staying on 18, I guess you can just stop using iMessage and FaceTime and switch to RCS and Google Meet.

 

[thadoggfather]

But that wasn't the point of Apple's announcement. So citing a patch meant to help people avoid obsolescence seems a way to just continue the argument that you don't like Liquid Glass. I get the hate, but turning a good announcement into a negative to further support your own narrative seems dishonest. If you are on 18.7.x and 18.7.4 isn't being offered to you, then you can jump on iOS 26 now or wait for iOS 27 in the fall, well before January 2027. And if you insist on staying on 18, I guess you can just stop using iMessage and FaceTime and switch to RCS and Google Meet.

LOL ok. I guess just totally different ways to see something.

Obviously Apple's intention of an announcement isn't going to be outright "hey we're screwing over you iOS 18 holdovers that are on devices capable of upgrading isn't that wonderful". What would be the logical point of doing that? The fact that many didn't understand the implications of what they are implementing without it being specifically broken down indicates to me they have not been overly forthright about it (it's a fine print sort of thing), and some people will be caught off guard when this takes effect and has tangible impact in Jan 2027.

It is nice to continue to offer updates for devices stuck on 12,15, and 18 -- of course. But it is not nice to lock out people who would desire those updates but now have no option but to upgrade to 26+.

..And frankly Apple's "announcement" is a sideshow to the larger point. I would argue: You are being disingenuous by focusing on the PR aspect of it strictly and not the actual impact. Classic projection / gaslighting. I've made no statements describing my distaste for Liquid Glass in this thread, but you claim I did. CTRL+F will return zero results.

Since on that subject however, I more take issues with performance and battery life concerns of iOS 26 (but really any update even on the same major version since a .1 can screw things and Apple QC is the Wild West as of recent more than ever), and that some things take many more clicks than they used to that translates to a less slick experience. But yes, one's preference of a UI/UX is subjective and a personal matter as well. If I did not care for the icons, that would be my prerogative. Not to mention, Mail on iPadOS26 is nothing short of a total disaster, to me. But there are other concerns than just "icons = ugly" is the point.

--

I am specifically dissecting the way Apple is implementing this, could not care less about their sugar coated verbiage: they are blocking out people from being able to update to 18.7.4 on iOS 18.x, even 18.7.3 and forcing them to iOS 26+ if they want to continue using their device's basic functionality. In what world is that a good thing for the customer who does not have the desire to install iOS 26?

"I guess you could just stop using iMessage and FaceTime" -- again obviously true / the predicament one will be faced with if they hold out, but is that ideal?
Has there been previous precedent for them to do this?
Does it seem coincidental timing wise to enable an artificial restriction when adoption rate is low?

 

[TokyoKiller]

I dont think there is a previous precedent for them to be doing this. Seems to coincide timing wise with locking people out of ability to OTA to 18.7.3 with beta profile who are on <26 recently, and comparatively low adoption rate of iOS 26. Ideally they just make the software less of a dumpster fire so people aren't as hesitant to move up versions lol but Apple gonna Apple.

I think it’s happened over the years without it being noticed, its just that this time around Apple is deciding to extend the validity of certificates for those models unlike in the past which is a POSITIVE thing so they brought attention to it.

I say that because services like FaceTime, iMessage, iCloud, etc have all had minimum system requirements throughout the years yet no one has ever barked at the issue until now where Apple has decided it made sense to extend the life on those 2 models probably due to how many are still out in the wild being used daily.

 

[thadoggfather]

I think it’s happened over the years without it being noticed, its just that this time around Apple is deciding to extend the validity of certificates for those models unlike in the past which is a POSITIVE thing.

Again, you're totally disregarding that it is not at all a POSITIVE thing to shut out people who would like to have 18.7.4 (because of the new limitation placed on Apple services expiring Jan 2027 specifically*) but can't merely because their device is IOS 26 is capable and newer. Both can be (and IMO are) true.

 

[8483011]

Man people will complain about any news.

 

[8483011]

The alternative is Apple never created this update, in which case you would have the exact same upgrade options for newer iPhones as you claim to be strong armed into now. Furthermore, there isn't anything saying those certificates aren't device specific, so who really knows if an iPhone 16 on 18.7.3 would stop working in 2027. You're reaching OP

 

[klasma]

Tell me how you turned Apple providing updates to devices that are over 10+ years old into some conspiracy that Apple is trying to force people to upgrade their software.

The issue is that Apple denies devices these point updates if they support a newer major version. For example the iPhone XS and XR have been getting iOS 18.7.4 providing this certificate update, while newer models that are on iOS 18.7.3 are not getting the update.

I can understand to a degree if they don’t want to test complex security fixes on all device models, but this is just a simple certificate update.

 

[HouseLannister]

Classic projection / gaslighting. I've made statements describing my distaste for Liquid Glass in this thread, but you claim I did. CTRL+F will return zero results.

My apologies. I dislike Liquid Glass and still see it as the main reason for people not wanting to go to iOS 26, but your issues are noted. Just keep in mind that your battery/performance concerns may be an issue with 26.2, but we will be on 27.2 before you have to make any decision on the matter.

Does it seem coincidental timing wise to enable an artificial restriction when adoption rate is low?

Is it? No one knows the real number but Apple. We had news sites saying it was as low as 15% and then issue retractions because the data was wrong. Earlier this week we see a survey say 78% and another company say 50% in the same article. But it's all guesswork. And none of that moved the stock price, so does Apple think it's low? Do they care if it is low?

iOS 26 Adoption Hits 50%, But Some Users Are Still Reluctant to Update

iOS 26 adoption now hovers at around 50%, according to StatCounter, but some users are still cautious about updating. New data published by SellCell provides a look at how users have responded to the push to update to iOS 26. The findings are based on a January 2026 survey of 2,000 U.S.-based...

www.macrumors.com

 

[Abydos]

wow, no support for os 1 (or iOS 1) in Mac land - must be some sort of marketing gimmickry to replace my iPhone 1 or original Mac

 

[thadoggfather]

The alternative is Apple never created this update, in which case you would have the exact same upgrade options for newer iPhones as you claim to be strong armed into now. Furthermore, there isn't anything saying those certificates aren't device specific, so who really knows if an iPhone 16 on 18.7.3 would stop working in 2027. You're reaching OP

Because the release notes doesn't explicitly specify that this new cert requirement would only for specific legacy devices, one can only conclude this requirement must only be for specific legacy devices by omission alone and wishful thinking?

An iPhone 16 on 18.7.3 will not come across issues with Apple Services, come January 2027 but an iPhone XR on 18.7.3 would (even though they are capable of updating to 18.7.4+). Is that actually your logic based guess you're going with? This will be a fun thread to re-visit in 12 months.

...And you're saying I'm reaching?
Honestly, is there any point in even arguing if this is the way the conversation is going to go?

And none of that moved the stock price, so does Apple think it's low? Do they care if it is low?

Of course they do. Adoption rates have always mattered to them. Do you think it would be easy or more difficult for Apple to manage having two diverging install bases, especially when the UI elements and underlying APIs are so different? What is the point of R&D and paying engineers and having corporate structure for a software department if 'they don't care'? Aren't lots of people drawn to iPhone and the likes because of iOS specifically? Isn't every major new major iOS release specifically timed to launch alongside new hardware? Is stock not related to public perception, and is it a good or bad perception people don't like or trust Apple's new releases more and more?

They famously made it a talking point during many keynotes even, and continuously year-over-year publish the figures themselves:

15- https://9to5mac.com/2022/01/13/apple-ios-15-adoption-vs-ios-14/
16- https://www.macrumors.com/2023/06/01/apple-shares-ios-16-adoption-statistics/
17- https://9to5mac.com/2024/06/11/ios-17-adoption-rate/
18- https://developer.apple.com/support/app-store/

wow, no support for os 1 (or iOS 1) in Mac land - must be some sort of marketing gimmickry to replace my iPhone 1 or original Mac

So someone who paid $1099+ for their iPhone 16 Pro end of 2024 should've had the foresight to know they wouldn't like the then not announced or known IOS 26 changes and ensuing QC sloppiness, and that they would be forced by hand to update while still under same carrier contract even (hypothetically on a 30 month term)? What if, hypothetically, the battery life tanks all of a sudden after the update, will they feel that they are being forced into a new device they otherwise weren't at all considering buying?

 

[8483011]

Because the release notes doesn't explicitly specify that this new cert requirement would only for specific legacy devices, one can only conclude this requirement must only be for specific legacy devices by omission alone and wishful thinking?

An iPhone 16 on 18.7.3 will not come across issues with Apple Services, come January 2027 but an iPhone XR on 18.7.3 would (even though they are capable of updating to 18.7.4+). Is that actually your logic based guess you're going with? This will be a fun thread to re-visit in 12 months.

...And you're saying I'm reaching?
Honestly, is there any point in even arguing if this is the way the conversation is going to go?

Of course they do. Adoption rates have always mattered to them. Do you think it would be easy or more difficult for Apple to manage having two diverging install bases, especially when the UI elements and underlying APIs are so different? What is the point of R&D and paying engineers and having corporate structure for a software department if 'they don't care'? Aren't lots of people drawn to iPhone and the likes because of iOS specifically? Isn't every major new major iOS release specifically timed to launch alongside new hardware? Is stock not related to public perception, and is it a good or bad perception people don't like or trust Apple's new releases more and more?

They famously made it a talking point during many keynotes even, and continuously year-over-year publish the figures themselves:

View attachment 2600124
View attachment 2600125

15- https://9to5mac.com/2022/01/13/apple-ios-15-adoption-vs-ios-14/
16- https://www.macrumors.com/2023/06/01/apple-shares-ios-16-adoption-statistics/
17- https://9to5mac.com/2024/06/11/ios-17-adoption-rate/
18- https://developer.apple.com/support/app-store/



So someone who paid $1099+ for their iPhone 16 Pro end of 2024 should've had the foresight to know they wouldn't like the then not announced or known IOS 26 changes and ensuing QC sloppiness, and that they would be forced by hand to update while still under same carrier contract even (hypothetically on a 30 month term)? What if, hypothetically, the battery life tanks all of a sudden after the update, will they feel that they are being forced into a new device they otherwise weren't at all considering buying?

Honestly, I don't even understand what your problem is. If Apple just let the certificates expire, everyone would bitch about it. If they provide a solution for it, people bitch about it. You're complaining about a scenario that isn't even possible yet, you're assuming that Apple would just do NOTHING for users that haven't updated compatible devices to iOS 26 a year from now, a scenario that seems even more unlikely now given that they're still providing updates 10 YEARS LATER. There was never a point for this argument in the first place, it just comes off as whining for the sake of whining. Nobody is forcing you to upgarde to iOS 26, not Apple, not anybody on this forum, not some hypothetical certificate issue. YOU don't like iOS 26, I'm glad for you, NOBODY cares.

 

[8483011]

An iPhone 16 on 18.7.3 will not come across issues with Apple Services, come January 2027 but an iPhone XR on 18.7.3 would (even though they are capable of updating to 18.7.4+).

Furthermore, what's your evidence of this, that's where you're reaching.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

There is absolutely nothing exclusive about this to iOS 26.
People keep trying to spin this into some conspiracy theory about how no one likes the new design so apple’s clearly forcing it on people but, this is just how they have done things for the last 20 years.
Even back when the design changed from iOS 6 to 7, Apple continued releasing security updates for iOS 6 for a short time after… Specifically for the iPhone 3GS and fourth generation iPod touch, but nothing else.
Everything else was iOS 7 or nothing.
Even going all the way back to 2008, Apple released iPhone OS 2.0 on July 11, and for iPod touch users who didn’t want to upgrade (since at the time iPod touch updates required a $9.95 upgrade fee) they released 1.1.5 four days later on July 15, but then… Nothing else. It was 2.0, or nothing.
This is how they have always operated.
Can’t blame this one on “Tim Crook”, because Steve’s Apple did the exact same thing.
Can’t blame it on Craig Federighi, because Scott Forstall’s software team did the exact same thing.
And by the way, for the first several months of its release, 2.0 was significantly, significantly more unstable and buggier than 1.1.X, you can look at the archives of this exact forum for the evidence.
As for software downgrades, the first phone you couldn’t do that at all was the 3GS, and the only reason you could do it with the first two iPhones was because of a hardware exploit in the Boot ROM. Again, before Tim Cook was even the CEO, before Craig Federighi ran software, when iOS 26 was still a decade and a half away

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

I don't think you understand the nuance to the situation. It doesn't just impact IOS 12 lol.

its IOS 12, IOS 15, and IOS 18. And there's more, this is the clincher:

If* you have a device that only goes up to 12, 15, or 18 and will not be supported further like cannot receive upgrades beyond that, you have the ability to OTA to latest .8, .6, .4 updates and can continue using Apple services just fine.

However** If you have a device that goes beyond those, IE you are on 18.7.3 (like on an iPhone 16 Pro or iPad Pro M4) that came out in mid December 2025 (just a month ago), you are now stuck on 18.7.3 unless you go to IOS 26+. You will *NOT* receive the OTA to 18.7.4, and if you stay on 18.7.3 through Jan 2027 apple services will then stop working because 18.7.3 is on a certificate that expires in 12 months.

So if you thought you'd "stay on IOS 18 for years" for a device that can be upgraded further and be fine (not receiving the new features / security updates aside) you'd be wrong with this new certificate only offered on devices that are not IOS 26+ supported.


Yes, that is the whole point of this thread.
Not being able to use iMessage, FaceTime, or even activating a device if it's sat in the box as old retail inventory being cleared out is not really a great proposition. I also wonder if that extends to News, and Music and the likes.

I dont think there is a previous precedent for them to be doing this. Seems to coincide timing wise with locking people out of ability to OTA to 18.7.3 with beta profile who are on <26 recently, and comparatively low adoption rate of iOS 26. Ideally they just make the software less of a dumpster fire so people aren't as hesitant to move up versions lol but Apple gonna Apple.

This is not new at all, please just look in the archives.
iOS 6.1.4: supported on all iOS 6 devices, including the iPhone 4, 4S and 5.
iOS 6.1.5 and 6.1.6: iPhone 3GS and iPod touch fourth generation only.
If you had anything newer, it was iOS 7 or nothing.
Same goes for security updates of both iOS 9 and 10 as well, and if that is where your device stopped, you continued getting security updates, if your device could update past those you’re only option was to completely upgrade.
This has been apple‘s policy going all the way back to 2008.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

Does it seem coincidental timing wise to enable an artificial restriction when adoption rate is low?

Not when it has been their policy since iPhone OS 1.1.5 in 2008.

 

[HouseLannister]

Adoption rates have always mattered to them.

I don't see it. It's a slide on a keynote, sure, but it could just as easily be about how many retail stores they opened or how much carbon offsets they purchased. They will brag about any number that benefits them. They don't get any revenue from people updating their OS. If you want to stay on 18 or 17 or 12, fine. It doesn't cost them anything. They are already focused on 27 at this point. They just might need a different slide for this year's keynotes. Maybe one on how many more Siri queries people did with the new LLM Siri.

 

[thadoggfather]

This is not new at all, please just look in the archives.
iOS 6.1.4: supported on all iOS 6 devices, including the iPhone 4, 4S and 5.
iOS 6.1.5 and 6.1.6: iPhone 3GS and iPod touch fourth generation only.
If you had anything newer, it was iOS 7 or nothing.
Same goes for security updates of both iOS 9 and 10 as well, and if that is where your device stopped, you continued getting security updates, if your device could update past those you’re only option was to completely upgrade.
This has been apple‘s policy going all the way back to 2008.

Except these dont involve a certificate in order for Apple services to continue being usable.

Key distinction but let’s go ahead and throw out all nuanced details cause who cares

 

[FeliApple]

Hold on… I have literally everything on an updatable iOS 12, 15 or 18 iOS version.

This has NEVER happened before. iMessage still works on an iPod Touch 4G running native iOS 5, last I checked. (So it does NOT have iOS 6.1.6)

Are we sure that iOS devices on iOS 12, 15, or 18 compatible with newer versions will stop working?