Interesting. And Nielson found during that same quarter that Android's U.S. share
dropped from March to April. I realize there are different companies doing the measuring, and in this case Nielson is looking month-to-month instead of by quarter, so we'll have to see what happens the rest of the year. But I would not be surprised to see Android's growth soon slow if not stop.
Think about why Android suddenly gained popularity. Was there a groundswell of demand from average consumers for Android? Not really. Only geeks knew about Android. The average phone buyer goes into a shop and picks a phone based on what's available.
So what caused the very rapid ascent of Android over the last year or so? It's quite simple: All of the also-ran phone manufacturers switched from WinMobile or Symbian or whatever OS to the free Android OS. When you shift all of the other guys into one big Android slice, Android's market share jumps immediately. That is precisely what happened.
But what happens when they have already jumped to Android? Right. Market share levels off. There simply isn't a big consumer-led demand for Android. Again, the geeks demand it, but the average person barely knows what their phone runs.
This was simply a supply-side shift of the also-rans into a single segment of the pie. The shift is over. Thus the share level is starting to become static. No surprise. This is precisely what you would expect to see from a supply-side, rather than a demand-side, situation.
So look for a plateau stage next, and then the stage that follows is a decline in market share for Android as all those also-rans start to consolidate or drop out of the market because they cannot sufficiently differentiate from their me-too competition. Again, this won't be a surprise. Except among the Android supporters who think the whole world is yelling for Android.