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Here's a good article about the daily projections (current worst case is peaking at 4400 per day, increasing from 3500 just yesterday!)


That article says 1,460 for April 10. That seems wildly optimistic — it's already 1,084 for today, and at a growth of roughly a doubling every three days, we're looking at more like 4,500 new cases on April 10.
 
The models currently predict 100-200K deaths as an absolute minimum with perfect social distancing in place and everyone knows that is not happening fully.

The US had just over 400K deaths in all of WWII. This is no joke.
Calm down. Nobody here is saying this is a joke.

Is is estimated that cancer caused over 600k deaths in the US in 2019, and alcohol related deaths over 80k. That is no joke either. These might be average numbers for every year. Do we enact policy changes to reduce these numbers?

Try to keep this is perspective. There are 2.5-3M deaths in the US each year. I think the average for 2020 will be in that same range, but we won’t know until next year.

Again, be smart. Don’t put yourself or others at risk. We need to get back to work.
 
s is estimated that cancer caused over 600k deaths in the US in 2019, and alcohol related deaths over 80k. That is no joke either. These might be average numbers for every year. Do we enact policy changes to reduce these numbers?

Do either cancer or alcohol related deaths force cities and hospitals setting up refrigerated truck trailers to act as temporary morgues because hospital and city morgues can't handle the volume of deaths? Another batch of refrigerated trucks are being sent to New York City, 85 this time.

Do cancer and alcohol related deaths tax hospital doctors, nurses, and staff, causing many to get sick, with some dying?

I could go on and on.

morgue.jpg
 
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Is is estimated that cancer caused over 600k deaths in the US in 2019, and alcohol related deaths over 80k. That is no joke either. These might be average numbers for every year. Do we enact policy changes to reduce these numbers?

Are you asking if there are policies to mitigate alcohol-related deaths? Yes. Yes there are.
 
A quarter million people are going to die at this point in the US alone. Boy I hope you're old or compromised one day and get to experience what it's like when people don't give a damn about you.
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You're wrong. Sorry. 250K+ dead bodies won't care about your economy. This is approaching WWII levels of death for Americans... drastic times.

Everything that you just said is a complete and utter projection of guessing. Everything that I shared is a fact. 10M people DID (FACT) file for unemployment. Businesses are going out of business, again FACT, not a projection. TRILLIONS of dollars lost in a month, FACT.
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Calm down. Nobody here is saying this is a joke.

Is is estimated that cancer caused over 600k deaths in the US in 2019, and alcohol related deaths over 80k. That is no joke either. These might be average numbers for every year. Do we enact policy changes to reduce these numbers?

Try to keep this is perspective. There are 2.5-3M deaths in the US each year. I think the average for 2020 will be in that same range, but we won’t know until next year.

Again, be smart. Don’t put yourself or others at risk. We need to get back to work.

This is what happens when you allow panic and fear to overcome logic.

I agree with you, what we are doing is going to be far worse than even 200k deaths. Which I do not think it will. This can lead us into a decade of depression. Go read about the millions who starved and committed suicide during the great depression. At some point, we need to accept what the right number of deaths are. Just like we accept 35k a year in car accidents are acceptable, when we could easily just lower speed limits and raise the driving age.... which we would never consider to do.
 
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Everything that you just said is a complete and utter projection of guessing. Everything that I shared is a fact. 10M people DID (FACT) file for unemployment. Businesses are going out of business, again FACT, not a projection. TRILLIONS of dollars lost in a month, FACT.

Yep, and you are advocating for letting hundreds of thousands of people just die when the majority of said businesses will be back in likely less than a year. JFC this opinion is pure evil, plain and simple.

The economy is not a god demanding human sacrifices.

If you reopen the economy now, millions will die and you'll still get your depression anyway. How can people like you not understand?

You can yell all you want into your pillow about opening the economy but you better just suck it up buttercup
 
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Do either cancer or alcohol related deaths force cities and hospitals setting up refrigerated truck trailers to act as temporary morgues because hospital and city morgues can't handle the volume of deaths? Another batch of refrigerated trucks are being sent to New York City, 85 this time.

Do cancer and alcohol related deaths tax hospital doctors, nurses, and staff, causing many to get sick, with some dying?

I could go on and on.

morgue.jpg
No they don’t, but that’s not the point. I’m simply drawing a comparison between these numbers to put this in perspective.

There is no question that this is a tragedy. A depressed economy with high unemployment would also be a tragedy, though on a different level.

I am hopeful that we can mitigate both, but doing so strategically. NY accounts for over a third of the total deaths in the US so far, so obviously a state like this would have to restart slower than a state like WY or SD.

Again, be smart. Help out and protect your loved ones. Don’t panic — you cannot lead with panic, and we need more leaders to get through this.
 
Yep, and you are advocating for letting hundreds of thousands of people just die when the majority of said businesses will be back in likely less than a year. JFC this opinion is pure evil, plain and simple.

The economy is not a god demanding human sacrifices.

If you reopen the economy now, millions will die and you'll still get your depression anyway. How can people like you not understand?

You can yell all you want into your pillow about opening the economy but you better just suck it up buttercup

Majority of businesses will be back? There you go again... saying things that aren't fact. Millions will not die if we open back up. South Korea told the old and sick to stay home, and look how well they handled it while keeping their economy running?

Again, you are using projections which are not fact. You are simply just guessing. What is going on with the economy is a fact. It is real. Its happening and has already happened. Trillions of dollars have been wiped in a month. 10M+ have lost their job and now cannot put food on the table or pay rent. Their is absolutely no promise, no matter what stimulus bill, that they will all get their job back. Stop thinking that the gov't is better at running our lives than its people. Just because we can keep the economy open, while certain people get sick, doesn't mean we don't care. Its actually the quite opposite.

This isn't about lives vs money, this actually lives vs lives. Money is not an enemy of lives. Money is not an enemy of life.
 
I agree with you, what we are doing is going to be far worse than even 200k deaths. Which I do not think it will. This can lead us into a decade of depression. Go read about the millions who starved and committed suicide during the great depression. At some point, we need to accept what the right number of deaths are. Just like we accept 35k a year in car accidents are acceptable, when we could easily just lower speed limits and raise the driving age.... which we would never consider to do.

The economy exists to serve society, not the other way 'round. Saving tHe EcOnOmY but losing half a million people is quite a pyrrhic victory.
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Again, you are using projections which are not fact. You are simply just guessing. What is going on with the economy is a fact. It is real. Its happening and has already happened.

No. What's "a fact", "real", and "is happening and has already happened" is people are dying. Human beings. More than a thousand each day now, and rising.
 
Everything that you just said is a complete and utter projection of guessing. Everything that I shared is a fact. 10M people DID (FACT) file for unemployment. Businesses are going out of business, again FACT, not a projection. TRILLIONS of dollars lost in a month, FACT.
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This is what happens when you allow panic and fear to overcome logic.

I agree with you, what we are doing is going to be far worse than even 200k deaths. Which I do not think it will. This can lead us into a decade of depression. Go read about the millions who starved and committed suicide during the great depression. At some point, we need to accept what the right number of deaths are. Just like we accept 35k a year in car accidents are acceptable, when we could easily just lower speed limits and raise the driving age.... which we would never consider to do.

As a technical note, not speaking to your point(s) at all...

The real number of people who have filed unemployment claims in the last 2 weeks is 8.74 million. The reported number of 10 million (i.e. 9.96 million) is a seasonally-adjusted number.

This time of year the counted number is typically adjusted up a little to account for seasonal trends. That makes sense when we’re talking about adjusting, e.g., 200k new claims to a reported seasonally-adjusted 220k. But applying that adjustment in this case is somewhat misleading. At any rate, that actual number of people reported to have filed new claims - the not seasonally-adjusted number - is 8.74 million.

Of course, neither number tells us how many people were actually laid off during those weeks. That number is probably higher.
 
Majority of businesses will be back? There you go again... saying things that aren't fact. Millions will not die if we open back up. South Korea told the old and sick to stay home, and look how well they handled it while keeping their economy running?

Again, you are using projections which are not fact. You are simply just guessing. What is going on with the economy is a fact. It is real. Its happening and has already happened. Trillions of dollars have been wiped in a month. 10M+ have lost their job and now cannot put food on the table or pay rent. Their is absolutely no promise, no matter what stimulus bill, that they will all get their job back. Stop thinking that the gov't is better at running our lives than its people. Just because we can keep the economy open, while certain people get sick, doesn't mean we don't care. Its actually the quite opposite.

This isn't about lives vs money, this actually lives vs lives. Money is not an enemy of lives. Money is not an enemy of life.
I agree with all that you are saying here. The speculation of deaths vs the reality of the economic effects. Uncertainty vs certainty. Uncertainty is unnerving for most, and rational thought goes out the window.
 
I agree with all that you are saying here. The speculation of deaths vs the reality of the economic effects. Uncertainty vs certainty. Uncertainty is unnerving for most, and rational thought goes out the window.
Would you rather not have a job or would you rather be dead?

1300+ people died today from the virus in the US and it is climbing every day

Anyone for opening the economy back up anytime soon is a ****ing idiot
 
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Would you rather not have a job or would you rather be dead?

1300+ people died today from the virus in the US and it is climbing every day

Anyone for opening the economy back up anytime soon is a ****ing idiot
As I said, rational thought goes out the window. Thank you for proving my point.
 
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