I agree with your analysis. It will be interesting to see how this situation evolves.
I know plenty of folks that do have a credit card, but few use them.
I did a review of the terms & conditions doc for both the Migros and coop annual-fee-free cards, and was surprised at the thin benefits (Coop had purchase return insurance and Migros had travel insurance) and array of fees for things that are free with a USA-issued card.
I think the same folks that holler "protectionism" at Apple for reserving the TouchID function to its Apple Pay will push the idea of the Twint partners blocking Apple Pay like the now-dead CurrentC consortium did. (The difference being Twint seems to be based on a better tech than CurrentC was so Twint uptake should generally be better.)
Here's an interesting overview of Swiss credit cards:
https://en.comparis.ch/kreditkarten/resultoverview?userProfileId=10