You yourself wont be using it, but many others will be.
They may no longer distribute media via CDs and what not in 20 years, unless Super Hi-Vision kicks off, in which case Blu-Ray or its successor will be around). None of this means its going away. Cassettes may no longer be in production, but that doesnt mean no one uses them. VHS is still around as well.
When the days of poverty and the working class are no longer a concern, and everyone can afford top of the range transport with built in AirPlay and iPod docking features with built in HDDs capable of storing hundreds of thousands of uncompressed audio or whatever new tech will surpass todays novelty features then you may have a case. It aint happening anytime soon.
The whole car audio thing is just one very small example. Gaming is the best example of physical media sticking around. There is far too much money to be made in the used games industry, and digital download prices are sky high, as well as various other limitations such as broadband speeds etc. The only way to kill the used market is to limit new games to be registered to one console upon use, which just cant happen.
Your gaming argument is probably your best point. As far as Blu Ray, I don't believe it will ever achieve the market penetration that DVD did. The adoption rate is much slower that it was for DVD at the same relative stage, and with competition from streaming, there are many (like myself) who would prefer the convenience of a "physical media-free" existence. Yes, I know about the quality difference. I used to be big into high-end home audio-video with equipment from manufacturers that most consumers have never heard of. But I got tired of storing huge numbers of discs, physically retrieving them and inserting them in a player, and wading thru ads and menus, etc. With terabytes of external storage, Apple TV, AirPlay, iTunes, and Netflix, I just serve up whatever I want whenever I want.
I realize it will be a while until a majority of consumers do the same, but I really don't think it will be 20 years. Of course you can say "someone, somewhere still has a cassette player, laserdisc, betamax, etc" - let's define "dead" as "No new releases from film studios or video game and software publishers in the format (i.e. physical media)."
Consider the timeline for VHS: Twenty years ago, VHS was in it's heyday. DVD was still six years away (1997) and DVRs (TiVo and Replay TV) were eight years away (1999) . However, by 2006 US movie studios stopped releasing movies on VHS. So it took 9 years from the introduction of DVD to kill VHS. Now consider the revolution in streaming that has accelerated since the introduction of the iPhone in 2007. We now have iPad, iTunes, and, soon, iCloud. Are they perfect? No. We need more bandwidth. We need 1080p. We need more accessibility to broadband and WiFi. Is it expensive? Perhaps. I cut Cable TV ($150 per month) and went to NetFlix ($8 per month), but yes, there is a significant hardware investment, not to mention broadband costs. But remember, the first VHS players were over $1000. I expect streaming quality will go up as costs go down.
All I'm saying is - 20 years is a long time. Like i said, you make me pause on the video game issue, but not enough to sway me completely. I say less than 20 years
