Rampant speculation matrix
This spun filament of rumor across the inter-lubes has frenzified my speculatory organ into producing the following output:
p.s. apologies in advance for the mega-post!
11.6 Macbook Air
It's real - 80%
It's fake - 20%
* Makes a lot of sense to me. And I want one.
Weight
3.0 pounds - 10%
2.8 pounds - 60%
2.6 pounds - 30%
* Almost certain to be lighter than 13" model, unless it's packed dense with features or with a heavy focus on battery (yes, a pun there was)
Battery life
5-6 hrs - 30%
7-8 hrs - 40%
10 hrs - 10%
* Tradeoff between weight, battery, size... 2.8 pounds & ~7hrs most likely, but... maybe keep current Air weight, 3 pounds, and give weight savings to extra battery.
* The slim form factor will male a big increase in battery life very difficult.
Shape
Squared - 90%
Tapered - 10%
* Squared off shape with slightly rounded corners seems a near certain bet to me (or sharper lines aka iPhone 4)
Storage type
SSD only - 90%
Hard drive or optional SSD - 10%
* Goodbye, and good riddance to slow 4200rpm mechanical drives.
Storage size
120 GB - 40%
160-200 GB - 30%
250 GB - 10%
Optional 120/250 GB - 20%
* More storage please... Intel 160 GB is possible but unlikely as Apple have expressed no interest in Intel SSD's so far, 194 GB of Samsung is possible.
* Has a huge bearing on cost so 120 GB, at least as an option, is likely
* Having optional sizes unlikely due to fusing direct to motherboard
Screen type
Glossy - 95%
Matte or matte option - 5%
* That's just the way it is. Sorry.
Screen bezel
Yes, a bezel/border - 90%
No, screen to edge - 10%
* Too small for decent keyboard without at least
some bezel.
Resolution
1366x768 (16:9) - 70%
1280x800 (16:10) - 20%
High retina style resolution - 5%
Something crazy like 1600x720 - 5%
4:3 ratio screen - 0%
* Pixel doubling on Apple laptops within 2 years likely... not quite ready for prime time yet
* 16:9 fits a full/near-full sized keyboard better
Ports
1 USB + power + mini-DP - 70%
2 USB + power + mini-DP + maybe SD reader + audio - 25%
Ethernet & other 'fat' ports - 0%
One Light Peak to rule them all (LP + power only) - 5%
* Squared off shape would allow many 'slim' ports to be included, but even so Apple favors clean lines & minimalism in design
* A single Light Peak port could drive display & USB etc via adapters/cables.
Port types
USB 3 - 40%
USB 2 only - 50%
Light Peak - 10%
* Hoping for USB 3 at least
* Apple
may have decided to go straight to Light Peak & skip USB 3 ports entirely (would support USB 2/3 protocols but with Light Peak connector)
* Light Peak likely not quite ready for market
Dedicated switchable graphics
Yes - 85%
No - 15%
* Apple has made a big move towards better graphics, to the point of holding back the Macbook 13 line from having Core-i series processors
* Lack of optical drive allows
more internal space that 13" Macbooks to fit a dedicated card to the motherboard.
Graphics card & vendor
nVidia GT 320m, or similar - 60%
nVidia GT 330m, or similar - 30%
ATI - 10%
* Likely a lower end dedicated graphics card, due to thermal design issues with the small form factor
Memory
4 GB - 60%
2 GB - 30%
2 GB or 4 GB options - 10%
More than 4 GB - 0%
* Desperately needs more memory than 2 GB, and memory configuration options are unlikely due chips living to directly on motherboard
Touchscreen
Touch me baby - 20%
Don't touch what you can't afford - 80%
* Touch to arrive on OS/X eventually, but probably not so soon after iPad
Operating system
OS/X - 95%
OS/X with iOS 'quick-boot' option - 5%
iOS - 0%
* A jumbo iPad with a keyboard? Not a chance.
Keyboard
Full size, to edge - 60%
Near-full, same layout - 30% ?
Near-full, different layout - 10% ?
* Slim but squared-off shape allows keyboard to extend to the edge, unlike the current Air
* There is a big preference from Apple, I believe, to keep current full-size kb... but is it possible at 11.6"? Probably yes with edge kb and enough screen bezel.
Touchpad
Medium-large glass - 75%
Smaller - 20%
New, different, crazy - 5%
* Will a largish trackpad fit? If so... we have a winner.
Processor, for base model
Core-i7 640UM 1200 MHz + turbo - 40%
Core-i7 660UM 1333 MHz + turbo - 10%
Core-i5 540UM 1200 MHz + turbo - 40%
Core-i5/i7 1067 MHz + turbo - 5%
Core-i3 without turbo - 5%
* Cost favors i5 540UM, but i7's have faster turbo speeds
* Non-turbo highly unlikely due to poor performance
Processor options offered?
Yes, faster &/or i5-i7 options - 20%
No, take your Jobs medicine and like it - 80%
Thickness
0.76" (1.94cm) (current Air) - 0%
0.7" (1.78cm) - 5%
0.6" (1.52cm) - 70%
0.5" (1.27cm) - 20%
0.4" (1cm) - 5%
* What exactly is possible here, with component sizes, unibody infrastructure, thermal requirements etc? 1/2" would be great for marketing but is iPad territory. 0.4" is flirting with the unknown... and unlikely/impossible.
Dual 11.6" and 13.3" models?
Yes, large and small to fit the whole family - 30%
No, 11.6" is the one true path - 70%
* I have a feeling they will retain a single MacAir model to avoid fracturing the product line for a flagship/pin-up product.
Design surprises
Something completely new/cool/revolutionary - 10%
Mildly new/cool - 40%
Nada, except as listed here (super slim etc) - 50%
* I don't think there will be too much on the design side apart from the super-slimness. That's enough of an achievement in itself.
* But... what about new materials (glass backing to screen), semi-transparent glass screen, touchpad on underside/outside of case, touchpad build in to keys (touch surface on keys, no dedicated pad), convertible tablet screen (unlikely to Apple as too mechanically complicated), some other cray pointer control to allow removal of touchpad (as form factor may limit size/effectiveness of traditional touchpad - and removal would allow wider than expected form)... and on and on and on
* Ohhh, I have it... the glass display panel is touch enabled and "reversible", such that the screen can operate whilst open (with keyboard) or closed in tablet mode (touch screen only). Wow that could be the super-coolest option yet. There have been tech demos of transparant panels which could enable this. And the 'on-screen' kb in touch mode could be the
real keyboard underneath with the key areas made semi-transparent whilst in kb mode (so still a soft kb, but co-located with the 'real' keys underneath). < 1%
Price
$999 - 10%
$1199 - 40%
$1499 - 45%
$1500+ - 5%
* Depends on exact feature set, but with dedicated graphics & SSD it's almost certain that hitting $1k will be impossible given Apple quality & design.
* Somewhere between $1200 and $1500 seems likely.
* Over $1500 for an 11.6" machine? Not on my watch. (But on Apples...?)
Would I buy one?
Yes, in a second - 95%
No way man - 5%
* Provided the features & price are similar to what I have listed here, I would buy one in an instant for my wife.
--
Please feel free to invert the speculatory matrix and render your judgement upon the component parts at will... i.e. comment.
So to finish with my personal story:
I currently have a new Macbook Pro 15", and I love it. My wife currently has a Lenovo U110 that she loves... 11.1" 1366x768 and 2.9 pounds with usable battery (2.4 with near useless slim battery). I would prefer to get her a new Mac for her next upgrade, but she won't go for it unless there is a small form factor portable available. It will hopefully be this new, rumored, MacAir... but if not the Lenovo U160 is looking a good bet (similar hardware to this speculation, and around $1200 - without SSD or dedicated graphics). I have been hoping for something like this to come along for a long time now...
