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Photorun said:
Typical Wall Street, dumb money for soulless people based on rampant vacant rumor, speculation, lies, and corruption.

It's very simple, really. Analysts and investors expected a profit of X dollars. And the shareprice reflected that expectation. But when Apple reported profit of (for example) X - 10%, the shareprice will go down, regardless of the fact that the reported profit were excellent. The fact still remains that they were less than what was expected, and it was therefore less than what was reflected on the share-price. Therefore the share-price will go down.
 
FoxyKaye said:
Maybe I'm crossing wires here, but didn't I read somewhere a year or so ago that Apple took a chunk of its corporate savings and paid off all of its debts in full? If so, that would seem to mean that the company is now operating entirely in the black - and doesn't that make it a bit of an anomaly in the corporate world?

Well, Apple IS an "anomaly" in the sense that it has no debt. However, "operating in the black" means that the company is turning a profit. And lots and lots of companies are profitable, so there's nothing strange about that 🙂. And there's nothing weird in having debt and being profitable. Maybe 98% of all profitable companies have some debt.

IIRC, having debt has some tax-benefits. But I'm no accountant, so what do I know?
 
Important distinction should be made. 15" Powerbook G4 and iMac G5 will be available as supplies last, but they did not include the 12" and 17" Powerbook G4 in that number.

Arn, you might want to correct the story to reflect this.
 
lord patton said:
I imagine the entire portable line will be updated in 2-3 months, but for sure by this summer. My worthless prediction is Apple will release 10" and 13" iBooks (or MacBooks) and that they will be _everywhere_ on campus in the fall.
I hope so. I remember a few years where laptops were released in September/October which seems too late for the back-to-school shopping crowd. June/July would be about right to make sure that there is enough product in the pipeline for people to buy in August/September. Updated iBooks in the $1000 range would be killer for the college market. Combine that with an iPod promo (shoot even $25-50 in free iTMS credit would be great) and Apple will sell loads of laptops in the fall.
 
My prediction is that the share price will go down. If anything i think they got more orders for the laptops than imacs and are scurring to airfreight imacs so customers don't cancel, like i just did. I'm kind of glad considering that the performance is not what SJ had announced. I'm waiting patiently for the 64bit imacs in june to appear.

Its also obvious that itunes and ipod sales will be affected this quarter considering that the major buying season was christmas. I would start to buy apple again at $60-70 range, hopefully in the next month or so. I also predict their earnings are on target and not conservative unless they come out with some other things to sell and have them in stock.
 
Go figure.

AMD earns $0.21/share profit in the last quarter and amidst reports that Intel fared badly, their stock jumps 10% today

Apple reports $0.64/share profit in the last quarter (their best ever) and despite Dell posting less than ideal numbers, they get whacked.

It really goes to show how much logic and actual soothsaying powers that the analysts have...
 
Analysts don't give you breathing room thats for sure, they expect every quarter to be that much better than before if not your marriage ends with them. Apple will pick up after march but until then if they don't come out with anything new I personally don't expect them to have a stellar quarter considering these new machine are not performing as SJ had announced.
 
legacyb4 said:
Go figure.

AMD earns $0.21/share profit in the last quarter and amidst reports that Intel fared badly, their stock jumps 10% today

Apple reports $0.64/share profit in the last quarter (their best ever) and despite Dell posting less than ideal numbers, they get whacked.

It really goes to show how much logic and actual soothsaying powers that the analysts have...

Again: it's because the earnings were LESS than the analysts were expecting. Apple might have delivered stellar results, but if the analysts expected even more, the share is going to go down.
 
Evangelion said:
Again: it's because the earnings were LESS than the analysts were expecting. Apple might have delivered stellar results, but if the analysts expected even more, the share is going to go down.

ok, EVANGELION; how low do you think APPLE is going before bouncing back ?
 
Evangelion said:
Again: it's because the earnings were LESS than the analysts were expecting. Apple might have delivered stellar results, but if the analysts expected even more, the share is going to go down.

Not really in this case. Apple beat estimates. There might have been some whisper numbers, but its doubtful, considering Apple preannounced.

What was disappointing to analysts was the forward guidance. Which was a lot less than what the analysts are forcasting. And considering the runup Apple stock had this year, people were looking for a reason to cash out. Of course, those same people will probably be buying back in later.

However, I think Apple is just guiding expectations lower and acting conservatively. In all probability, the stock will go back up when they realize that.

Besides, Apple stock was already a bit ahead of itself. 78 is a fair value at this point.
 
macidiot said:
Besides, Apple stock was already a bit ahead of itself. 78 is a fair value at this point.

...oh man, i should have asked around here before buying at 84.10... 🙁

...i've got the feeling you guys would have certainly suggested to wait for the Q1 results and buy days after the event, right ?
 
Hattig said:
Well I haven't done any such course.

It just seems logical that for a company with billions in the bank, that can afford to research pretty much anything entirely from those billions, that it doesn't need to rely on external funding ever. It doesn't take $10b to research anything that Apple's made.

If they get into spaceship design then maybe there'd be a high R&D cost up front that would require borrowing beyond Apple's saved billions.

Sure, if it is a small company it may help them to spread the risk when developing an idea, and the don't have billions anyway, but borrowed money isn't free. Your own money is. Unless you get a loan deal where the interest rate is lower than the interest rate on the company's savings account and it's simply better to borrow than to spend your own money.


I'm not sure why your hung up on research costs. Why do you think companies borrow money only for research? Why do you think that research the main cost of doing business? This is a very minor part of Apple's operating costs. About 4%. As in the other 96% of the money Apple spends day to day goes to things like marketing, manufacturing, office salaries, rent, electricity, phone bills, paper, pens, etc.

Forget about Apple, look at a guy that wants to build a supermarket. He has enough money to build it himself. But he gets a mortgage instead, borrowing the money. Now, since he only had to use a part of his own money, instead of all of it, he decides to use his other money, along with more borrowed money, to build 3 supermarkets instead of one. Yes, he owes interest on the borrowed money. But now he can make triple what he would have if he only used his money.

Of course, if the supermarkets fail, he is in big trouble, owing a lot of money. But I explained that before.

And you really need to forget about that 10 billion in this situation. That is there for many reasons other than a piggy bank for running the company. Its there as a cushion in case the company starts losing big money. Like if people decided to stop buying iPods and macs. It is also there to provide psychological support that the company is strong. It is there in case Apple wants to buy another company or invest in another company. For example, Apple has owned or does own large percentages of companies like AOL, Akamai, ARM semiconductors, etc.

It is not there just for developing an idea.

Apple makes enough money day to day to cover the day to day running of the company. That includes research and development costs.

Borrowed money isn't free. But its often better to make money using someone else's money instead of your own. And actually, considering what interest rates have been at over the past 5 years, borrowing money was in fact essentially free.

I understand that this might be complicated or new for you. And it can get very complicated. You really might want to buy a book or take a class about this. I might understand this stuff, but I'm probably not the best person to teach it.
 
strange days said:
...oh man, i should have asked around here before buying at 84.10... 🙁

...i've got the feeling you guys would have certainly suggested to wait for the Q1 results and buy days after the event, right ?

I wouldn't have. I don't try to time stocks or the market. Its a great way to lose money. At the very least, reduce your returns. Besides, the last I checked, my psychic powers were pretty weak.

But what I do try to do, among other things, is figure out what a fair value for a stock is. And when that stock dips below a certain level, I consider it a buying opportunity, assuming the reasons I liked the stock in the first place are still there. And this can hurt you too. There are lots of stocks that I never bought because I always thought they were too expensive. Thing is, they always stayed expensive. Stocks like Starbucks, Ebay, etc. And I definitely missed out on making some money. But I still stick with what I think works. Because for every ebay, there's an etoys.

But really, if you like a company and its long term prospects, and have done enough research to satisfy yourself, day to day prices shouldn't have much impact. For example, if, 2 years from now, Apple is at 150, will it really be that big of a deal that you bought at 84 instead of 78?

Then again at this point, part of me thinks that Apple stock is EXTREMELY expensive, considering what I paid for it. 😀
 
Its only natural for the stock to fall at this point, you must look at the long-term. Buying and selling for the short term is for big time investors. If you're like me keep it for the long-term, apple will do fine.

Having said all this, at this point I am concerned about the speed improvement in the imac and certainly haven't seen a lot of activity of people selling their imac G5's to switch. I also think that airfreighting imacs is a sign that things aren't going so well and really need to get these machines shipped otherwise people will cancel their orders...my opinion.

I believe that the estimates will be on target and no less. If apple starts to lower prices on older machines, definetly a sign that things aren't going so well. In any case keep your pants on and wait till year end.
 
strange days said:
ok, EVANGELION; how low do you think APPLE is going before bouncing back ?

Unfortunately I'm not a stock-analyst 🙂. If I knew everything about Apple and the future of their shares, I would have bought metric assload of those shares 5 years ago 🙁....
 
macidiot said:
I wouldn't have. I don't try to time stocks or the market. Its a great way to lose money. At the very least, reduce your returns. Besides, the last I checked, my psychic powers were pretty weak.

But what I do try to do, among other things, is figure out what a fair value for a stock is. And when that stock dips below a certain level, I consider it a buying opportunity, assuming the reasons I liked the stock in the first place are still there. And this can hurt you too. There are lots of stocks that I never bought because I always thought they were too expensive. Thing is, they always stayed expensive. Stocks like Starbucks, Ebay, etc. And I definitely missed out on making some money. But I still stick with what I think works. Because for every ebay, there's an etoys.

But really, if you like a company and its long term prospects, and have done enough research to satisfy yourself, day to day prices shouldn't have much impact. For example, if, 2 years from now, Apple is at 150, will it really be that big of a deal that you bought at 84 instead of 78?

Then again at this point, part of me thinks that Apple stock is EXTREMELY expensive, considering what I paid for it. 😀


heh, i always liked Apple, but i didn't have spare money for Wall Street until late in the game. Apart from that, i'm considering a long-term investment on this stock, so yeah, i agree it shouldn't be much of a loss if nothing strange happens...

...on the other hand, i'm not very competent and i can learn from observations you guys make here.

THANKS ! 🙂
 
strange days said:
heh, i always liked Apple, but i didn't have spare money for Wall Street until late in the game. Apart from that, i'm considering a long-term investment on this stock, so yeah, i agree it shouldn't be much of a loss if nothing strange happens...

...on the other hand, i'm not very competent and i can learn from observations you guys make here.

THANKS ! 🙂

As I stated earlier in this thread (and others) I decided to short AAPL on Tuesday @ 85.00. Not sure how much longer I'll hold it, but I have made some decent money on it just this week alone. In general, from my experience, "buy and hold" rarely works in today's markets, and I have been far more successful at short term investing and trading over the years myself. Popping in, popping out, playing seasonality, etc. Take it for what it's worth. 😎
 
WTF is going on ?

...AAPL going towards 70$ ???

new iTunes content added, product annoucements coming, iMac and MacBook Pro orders galore...

is it just the financial quarter "forecast effect" ? 😕
 
The bubble is starting to deflate...glad I got out at the top.

A lot of it is the next quarter guidance by Apple. Yes, Apple has historically low-balled their guidance and then blown by it, but they actually went so far it was a bit of a shock when they announced guidance of $4.3 billion in sales and $0.42/share earnings. Analysts had been expecting $4.6+ billion and $0.48/share. Some of that difference can be attributed to conservatism by Apple, but it's an awfully big difference and there are concerns that Apple sees a good reason to temper expectations...expectations which could be considered to unreasonable.
 
strange days said:
WTF is going on ?

...AAPL going towards 70$ ???

new iTunes content added, product annoucements coming, iMac and MacBook Pro orders galore...

is it just the financial quarter "forecast effect" ? 😕

It wasn't that hard to predict. As I said above, I shorted it at $85 and am making good money on the stock now as a result. 😎
 
strange days said:
WTF is going on ?

...AAPL going towards 70$ ???

new iTunes content added, product annoucements coming, iMac and MacBook Pro orders galore...

is it just the financial quarter "forecast effect" ? 😕

Its due to the forward guidance from Apple and the uncertainty regarding the Intel switch. Oh and today, its possibly from the FUD from Microsoft that they are going to make an "iPod killer." To go along with every other "iPod killer" from the last 4 years. 😛

Also, this quarter is going to take a hit in computer sales. A lot of people are waiting for or ordered a new Macbook. Which doesn't ship till Feb. Which means a month of little or no laptop sales. And this should continue through the year for each product. People will hold off on iBook, mini, and possibly the desktops. If there are any product delays, it could cause a big hit to earnings.

Basically, Apple is trying to do a massive rollout, replacing its entire line of computers in one year. A huge undertaking. There are lots of places where the rollout could breakdown. Of course, even if problems happen, at some point the rollout will be complete, and at that point any lost earnings should be recovered.

That said, if Apple is simply flat with computer sales this year, the stock should still go to ~95 this year. iPod sales alone justify this.

Me, I'm waiting for the stock to stabilize, then I'm probably going to start buying, up to 75 or so. Anything under 75 looks like a very nice price point.
 
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