MacRumors

macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
54,192
16,011
https://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogodarkd.png

Apple will be webcasting a discussion of their Q2 2007 Financial Results on Wednesday, April 25, 2007.

Please note that comments made during this call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. For more information on the factors that could influence results, please refer to Apple’s SEC filings.

The conference call begins at 2pm PT/5pm ET.
 

DsurioN

macrumors regular
Jan 7, 2007
124
56
Great, I hope they have some good results and they somehow leak some hints as to what's in store for the rest of the year... :D
 
Comment

NewbieNerd

macrumors 6502a
Sep 22, 2005
512
0
Chicago, IL
Big freaking deal...is this really a rumor?

It's all we've got with Apple right now. I guess if they're so swamped with the iPhone right now that Leopard had to be delayed several months, they're probably too swamped to do anything else interesting. :(
 
Comment

Grimace

macrumors 68040
Feb 17, 2003
3,549
106
with Hamburglar.
Even great profits don't help the AAPL price. The future outlook is really what investors are looking at these days. Mac sales are important too, but I wouldn't count on the stock price jumping. Stellar results the last MANY quarters and each time the stock has tanked because of Apple's cautious outlooks.
 
Comment

Cinematographer

macrumors 6502a
Sep 12, 2005
900
4
far away
I have a very good feeling about this.... I think the numbers will be stellar!

The iPod numbers are quite impressiv indeed. It looks like Apple has sold more than 11 million iPods in Q2 (cf. 100 millionth iPod anouncement). This is another Q2 record, of course, beating 8.5 million in Q2 2006 and 5.3 million in Q2 2005.

I'm not so sure about the Macintosh numbers though.
 
Comment

scu

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2005
182
0
is this a serious question? it closed @ 93+ today............. :confused:

if this is serious you should do a lot of research before getting into stocks, particularly aapl.

aapl is now trading at 33.8x p/e. Earnings per share year to date is 2.77. If p/e remains unchanged and it announces .65 earnings per share for 2nd quarter, then the stock should trade at about 115 per share.

3.42x33.8=115

If the market feels that the p/e is too high and the stock should trade more in the 26 p/e range than the stock should trade at 95.76.

Many insiders feels that the actual earnings will blow estimates away and come in at about .85 a share or more. If that is the case than buying aapl at 93 a share is a steal and we should see a nice 10-15% return on investment over 3 months.
 
Comment

zombitronic

macrumors 65816
Feb 9, 2007
1,116
8
If you make lucky choices and have the starting cash, then yeah, AAPL can be a good stock in a company that you actually like. With about $5,000 and a trading site that lets you buy double what you can afford (thinkorswim), you'd have about $10,000 to spend on shares. Pick up 110 shares (10 to cover the $10 commission), sell it at a dollar more and ::BOOM:: you just made $100. Let it go down, buy again and repeat. You'll have paid for that iPhone in no time.

I'm sure you'll get dissed by some pro-traders that would call this a frivolous trading habit and that your money would be better off split up in smaller stocks, but it's your money. For very little effort, it has the potential to pay off.
 
Comment

IJ Reilly

macrumors P6
Jul 16, 2002
17,889
1,479
Palookaville
aapl is now trading at 33.8x p/e. Earnings per share year to date is 2.77. If p/e remains unchanged and it announces .65 earnings per share for 2nd quarter, then the stock should trade at about 115 per share.

3.42x33.8=115

If the market feels that the p/e is too high and the stock should trade more in the 26 p/e range than the stock should trade at 95.76.

Many insiders feels that the actual earnings will blow estimates away and come in at about .85 a share or more. If that is the case than buying aapl at 93 a share is a steal and we should see a nice 10-15% return on investment over 3 months.

What that the analysis was quite so simple. First, trailing PE is a virtually worthless statistic to look at for a growth company. It only tells you what has happened over the past four quarters and nothing about the future. For a company like Apple, the forward PE (currently at 24:1) is far more important, since it represents a consensus estimate of future earnings. If Apple fails to grow EPS at something like the difference between trailing and forward PE, and/or does not confidently predict that level of growth going forward, then they will probably be punished by the market. But even that analysis is too simple because the market values stocks based on far more than simple numbers.

Here's a good bottom line which has worked well in the past: If Apple doesn't beat expectations by at least 10%, then the stock will generally be drubbed the next day, because investors have already priced in at least consensus expectations. They want more and can be very disappointed when they don't get it.
 
Comment

Apple Architect

macrumors regular
Apr 4, 2007
133
2
United Kingdom
Apple results

I am always shocked by some of the responses to the financial details/share price questions.

On one hand we have a group of people suggesting "use a site and buy twice what you can afford" and on the other the people claiming to use formula to predict share price.

The share price is exactly that, a price. It is what the market thinks the company is worth. As for news contained in the end of quarter report...if you believe in the strong form of Simple Market Hypothesis then everyone who ACTUALLY understands these things has already traded as the share price already reflects information that may or may not be in the public domain.

If you are thinking of buying shares to make a profit....then by a tracker to remove the risk associated with single shares. If you think that the shares are undervalued then buy them, but please only buy what you can afford to lose.
 
Comment

scu

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2005
182
0
What that the analysis was quite so simple. First, trailing PE is a virtually worthless statistic to look at for a growth company. It only tells you what has happened over the past four quarters and nothing about the future. For a company like Apple, the forward PE (currently at 24:1) is far more important, since it represents a consensus estimate of future earnings. If Apple fails to grow EPS at something like the difference between trailing and forward PE, and/or does not confidently predict that level of growth going forward, then they will probably be punished by the market. But even that analysis is too simple because the market values stocks based on far more than simple numbers.

Here's a good bottom line which has worked well in the past: If Apple doesn't beat expectations by at least 10%, then the stock will generally be drubbed the next day, because investors have already priced in at least consensus expectations. They want more and can be very disappointed when they don't get it.

I would agree with you in principal, however if that was the case then why hasn’t this stock increased more significantly from January 2006. It has beaten street estimates every quarter since then and Apple is growing at about 30% a year. Yet the stock is only trading 7% higher then it did 15 months ago. Wall Street has been too cautious for too long. I believe that blowout earnings this quarter will be the catalyst. We should start seeing aapl appreciating above $100 in the next 3 months. Guidance form Apple for 3rd quarter is key and we agree on that. But they have always given conservative estimates and I don’t see that changing. So it will be up to buyers to determine future value by accumulating the stock. Most analysts have the stock at 105-145 in the next 12 months.
 
Comment

IJ Reilly

macrumors P6
Jul 16, 2002
17,889
1,479
Palookaville
I would agree with you in principal, however if that was the case then why hasn’t this stock increased more significantly from January 2006. It has beaten street estimates every quarter since then and Apple is growing at about 30% a year. Yet the stock is only trading 7% higher then it did 15 months ago. Wall Street has been too cautious for too long. I believe that blowout earnings this quarter will be the catalyst. We should start seeing aapl appreciating above $100 in the next 3 months. Guidance form Apple for 3rd quarter is key and we agree on that. But they have always given conservative estimates and I don’t see that changing. So it will be up to buyers to determine future value by accumulating the stock. Most analysts have the stock at 105-145 in the next 12 months.

The current mean/median 12-month forecast is $110-115. I've never seen these analyst predictions ground-truthed, so I don't know how much trust to put in them. Recall when they announced last quarter's blowout numbers, AAPL actually went down substantially because at the very same time, they advised caution going forward. This was taken by investors as a sign that Apple was signaling less growth to come. The market reacted accordingly. Most companies are conservative in their predictions. Investors know this is a constant and also price the stock accordingly. I believe this is why my rule of thumb (consensus EPS+10% or bust) seems to work.
 
Comment

Mulyahnto

macrumors member
Jun 19, 2006
54
0
It'd be interesting to see the number of ipods and macs sold this quarter. I think consensus is about 10.5M ipods and 1.4M macs. Which would bring in about $1.7B for ipods (@ $160 avg price) and $2.1B (@ $1,500 avg price) for macs. Given that these core products bring in about 2/3-4/5 of total revenue, this results in a very pedestrian $5B quarter. In fact TFC states $5.17B @ $0.64 EPS. I'm hoping for about 12M ipods and 1.5M macs sold this quarter. The year ago quarter sold 8.5M ipods and 1.1M macs.
 
Comment

Mulyahnto

macrumors member
Jun 19, 2006
54
0
AAPL's current market cap is around $80B. Last quarter's shareholder's equity was about $10B, essentially the assets of the company if it were to stop operations immediately, ignoring all intellectual property. A disparity of $70B. This disparity indicates that we think AAPL will evantually be worth the $80B the cap is at right now. If we factor a 10% earnings growth rate, and ignoring investment incomes, the $70B is earned back in about 15 yrs when earnings are projected at $9B compared to today's $2B. If AAPL's cash pile will reach its yearly revenue, it might be time to bring back divident payouts, or a stock buy-back program, it's both good for the investors and for a healthy company.
 
Comment

Rocketman

macrumors 603
Unique subscription based regognition of iPhone sales on a straight-line basis over 24 months. Allows Apple to provide FREE software upgrades over time to existing iPhone owners.

Earnings on service fees to be recognized on an "as earned" basis.

The odd thing about this will be a "rolling recognition" of iPhone related revenues thus smoothing earnings recognition.

Rocketman
 
Comment

scu

macrumors regular
Apr 9, 2005
182
0
aapl is now trading at 33.8x p/e. Earnings per share year to date is 2.77. If p/e remains unchanged and it announces .65 earnings per share for 2nd quarter, then the stock should trade at about 115 per share.

3.42x33.8=115

If the market feels that the p/e is too high and the stock should trade more in the 26 p/e range than the stock should trade at 95.76.

Many insiders feel that the actual earnings will blow estimates away and come in at about .85 a share or more. If that is the case than buying aapl at 93 a share is a steal and we should see a nice 10-15% return on investment over 3 months.

aapl is a steal at 108. In six months it will trade over 120.
 
Comment
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.