right there with you!!
What do you guys mean history? What are you considering history. AAPL consistently beats earnings and consistently sets a accepted guidance. Last quarter is the only recent exception... so is something so recent considered history? I would say historically AAPL beats earnings and sets acceptable guidance.
The economy does seem in bad shape when you look at C,BAC, BSC, and companies like GE. But what about INTC, GOOG, RIMM, IBM, and SNDK? AAPL is much more correlated with the latter than banks/financials and conglomerates.
Why weren't you buying up on the lower support down in the teens and lower twenties? Once it got that low I knew I would never forgive my self for not taking advantage of the situation... unfortunatly I did not have as much capital around as I would have liked
If they miss there will be a large drop in price AH, but if they beat and set an accepted guidance I am not so sure if the gain is not already priced into AAPL the last few days and today: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/...08/04/21/strong-beat-expected-from-apple.aspx
We have seen this before, since AAPL tends to announce later than other companies, investors get the feel of AAPL report and usually build the price in pre-earnings. If AAPL reports well and is accepted I was thinking maybe a 7% increase in AH? If they miss.... geez who knows atleast a 10% drop?
David, just the last few months I have been studying lots of TA with options. Could you explain further into straddles?
a straddle is simply buying calls and puts above and below the current price. It is good if you think there will be a large move in either direction.
Actually, instead of a straddle, the correct play for someone holding a lot of AAPL stock and worried about a short term plunge would be to buy 1 (option) put contract for each 100 shares you are holding. If AAPL goes way up (and stays up) after the report, the put may expire worthless (yielding up to a total loss of the money you spent on that position). If APPL goes way down, you'll lose value on the stock but gain value on the put. In this latter scenario, the put option acts like relatively cheap, short-term insurance against the falling stock price. It is possible to choose a put position so that you can gain $1 for each $1 you lose on falling AAPL share prices.
So, for those bearish on the stock, there's a cheap solution without having to sell the stock. The put can "cover" your losses in the short-term, and you can simply hang on to your stock until it rises yet again. Do a search for using put options like insurance to find many articles that fully explain this strategy.
The straddle idea is better suited for anyone anticipating a huge move up or down in AAPL (but not necessarily owning the stock right now). It is essentially a (stock price) volatility play. Straddles involves buying both kinds of options- calls & puts- to essentially place a bet on both directions. To win, the move needs to big enough that you can fully recoup the cost of both option positions combined (because when one side wins, the other side loses). With AAPL options priced as they are, there will need to be a very large move in the shares to make this strategy work out very profitably.
All that said, I'm optimistic (or is that hopeful?) on AAPL, thinking the actual may prove a little better than expectations this time. Either way though, as the rumor mill cranks up for the 3G iphone, the stock will probably rise (either further from now, or quickly from some fall after this report).
I only recommended a straddle because the discussion was centered around a large move one way or the other. Anyway, I would probably buy more than 1/100 protective puts if I was concerned about a downside move just so I could profit off the move. You still would get the 'insurance' aspect of the PP, but also would potentially profit.
I own both the stock and calls, so I am expecting a nice upside after earnings.