Actually no. For starters, electrical cars are about equal to ICEs only if 100% of the power generation is from coal (results vary a little from region to region). A non-ideal situation certainly. But even if we were to funnel everything previously used in cars to oil based power plants we'd see an improvements - simply because the efficiency gains that come from scale.
However, the above also makes two fatal assumptions:
1) That the ICE does not considerably increase the emissions-per-distance over its lifespan. There is a reason it is required by law in most countries to test the vehicles emissions whenever its on service. If this value climbs to high for its current age, driving it is illegal. With the average age of the vehicle fleet in countries, this amount is not trivial, whereas all research has always assumed a new ICE at peak efficiency (its easier to do). Needless to say, that's not particularly realistic.
2) That power plants do not improve their efficiency over time. In basically all countries, the limitations on emissions on power plants has increased as the years ago by. This efficiency improvement directly results in an efficiency improvement to electrical vehicles, both new and old.
In other words, while a 5 year old ICE will perform below the results of research, a 5 year old electrical should perform better.
Good points. Just as a counter, you also have to take into account that the batteries also become less efficient in EV's over time, decreasing the range capacity before a charge is needed.
In any case, I think we both can agree that "dirty" power pants need to be marginalised in order for a tipping point in EV's to become mainstream. That and a big jump in charging technology. Either super fast charging technology, or a profound building out of specialised infrastructure, like dedicated sections of wireless charging roads. The fact that an ICE can be refueled and back on the road on a full tank in less than 5 minutes gives the freedom of interstate and international travel.
Even Tesla's "supercharging" stations, while a good effort, are not widely enough available, and still represent a significant enough compromise, or inconvenience as to be a deal breaker.
EV's currently effectively have half the advertised range, because you have to be able to "get back to base" for an overnight charge.
Obviously for urban and metropolitan area use, that's not a big issue, but then a lot of people will feel they need to have a second vehicle for "proper" auto use, such as motorways, towing, etc.
For the EV to become a replacement, it needs to be able to fulfill all of the use cases of the ICE vehicle without significant compromises.
Tesla's upcoming model X would do that for me personally, but I don't know if I can justify the price, either.
