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do you know the word doomed? this word is not used by people, that think apple is heading in a wrong direction.
its only used by people who still like apple.

i think - i ve heard that cook said a lot of things WE said, that iphone prices are too high internationally and that people hold longer to their phones.

so whats the point of you comment?
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ähm, yes ... thats what WE want.
he is not what WE want for apple, i guess he has enough money to pursue happiness somewhere else!
Actually those who say apple is doomed are normally trolls...which now there are plenty on here these days
 
do you know the word doomed? this word is not used by people, that think apple is heading in a wrong direction.
its only used by people who still like apple.

i think - i ve heard that cook said a lot of things WE said, that iphone prices are too high internationally and that people hold longer to their phones.

so whats the point of you comment?
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ähm, yes ... thats what WE want.
he is not what WE want for apple, i guess he has enough money to pursue happiness somewhere else!

Doesn’t liking Apple mean supporting what they do even though it may not be what we want?

You may not like what Apple is doing, but that doesn’t mean we can’t acknowledge their merits and give credit where credit is due.
 
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Clearly there are many here that don’t fully understand the company and all their ambitions (like me), but the services number is exciting. They have 1.4B active devices, with 360,000M subscribers to their own and third party services. Based on revenue, this is $30 per subscriber. Think about the potential.

You’re missing Apple Pay. That’s a _major_ factor and how they keep expanding continually in other countries. I think others want to write Apple Pay off as an ‘unwanted or unneeded’ feature, but it’s becoming more accepted and convenient with merchants every single day. In my city, contactless payment has become to the point where I’m rarely even seeing debit cards as much as I used to when people are paying with their phones and Apple watches. It’s a new-ish era and Apple Pay is a significant part of that.
 
You’re missing Apple Pay. That’s a _major_ factor and how they keep expanding continually in other countries. I think others want to write Apple Pay off as an ‘unwanted or unneeded’ feature, but it’s becoming more accepted and convenient with merchants every single day. In my city, contactless payment has become to the point where I’m rarely even seeing debit cards as much as I used to when people are paying with their phones and Apple watches. It’s a new-ish era and Apple Pay is a significant part of that.
Where I live there is no difference between Apple Pay, google pay and Samsung pay. They are all accepted in the same places. I’ve tried Samsung pay and google pay once and they worked pretty well. What I like about Apple Pay is that I can use my watch for payments. Using my Apple Watch is the ultimate convenience factor for me. I don’t have to find my phone in my bag. Google pay and Samsung pay took ages to work with android wear and the gear watches. Yet it was available on the Apple Watch from the start.
 
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360M subscriber? I doubt this number, subscribed to what?

People who say Apple is doomed, its not going to happen in 6 months...its an "eventually" in the near future. 5-7 years. This scenario happened in other markets. No one imagined a cellphone market without Nokia, or videogames market without Sega, or the whole Japanese electronics manufacturers become no names! Its all about the Samsung and LGs now!

I am not saying its going to happen but if Apple keeps neglecting the Mac, rise the prices of the iphone, and investing in singing in the car tv shows... yes it will happen. It happened to the Commodore, Compaq, IBM...they all left the market.
 
Can someone explain the re-allocation of amortized value from products to services? It was all the analysts were talking about a week ago, and the call comes and goes, and Apple says, "Hey, services grew 19%" while not disclosing how much of that 19% growth was from reallocation of revenue. Seems like shenanigans to me.
 
360M subscriber? I doubt this number, subscribed to what?

People who say Apple is doomed, its not going to happen in 6 months...its an "eventually" in the near future. 5-7 years. This scenario happened in other markets. No one imagined a cellphone market without Nokia, or videogames market without Sega, or the whole Japanese electronics manufacturers become no names! Its all about the Samsung and LGs now!

I am not saying its going to happen but if Apple keeps neglecting the Mac, rise the prices of the iphone, and investing in singing in the car tv shows... yes it will happen. It happened to the Commodore, Compaq, IBM...they all left the market.

You doubt subscriber numbers eh?

Well - keep watching the largest company raking in money for 5 years and then compare what you thought in 2019 with how things are in 2024.
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Can someone explain the re-allocation of amortized value from products to services? It was all the analysts were talking about a week ago, and the call comes and goes, and Apple says, "Hey, services grew 19%" while not disclosing how much of that 19% growth was from reallocation of revenue. Seems like shenanigans to me.

It is a bit, but they do it to start off a new accounting method in which margins will now be reported for “services” as well as “hardware”. Something like that.

It’s a new metric. And if you are interested you can figure it out without being an accountant, but yeah it’s weird, but here are many things like this in business.
 
Where I live there is no difference between Apple Pay, google pay and Samsung pay. They are all accepted in the same places. I’ve tried Samsung pay and google pay once and they worked pretty well. What I like about Apple Pay is that I can use my watch for payments. Using my Apple Watch is the ultimate convenience factor for me. I don’t have to find my phone in my bag. Google pay and Samsung pay took ages to work with android wear and the gear watches. Yet it was available on the Apple Watch from the start.
Samsung Pay is available in compatible Galaxy Smart Watches.
 
Maybe Apple no longer has to make great computers, just stuff slightly better than the junk the competition tries to peddle

Better than what? Some 1 euro chinese knockoff pc? The latest products from apple are just junk... no quality at all.
 
Yes but it wasn’t at the start.

May be so....Apple Pay requires special PoS device. Samsung Pay uses existing PoS devices much simpler implementation. Also, in my place contactless cash wallets use QR Code for Merchant Payments and I have done as big as $1200 using such methods. Apple Pay is unnecessary in most of the places in our region
 
May be so....Apple Pay requires special PoS device. Samsung Pay uses existing PoS devices much simpler implementation. Also, in my place contactless cash wallets use QR Code for Merchant Payments and I have done as big as $1200 using such methods. Apple Pay is unnecessary in most of the places in our region

“Special” point of sale device is a loaded term in the USA I am finding. Canada has had wireless chip Visa cards for more than a decade - works with Apple Pay too
 
Remember when people would camp-out at Apple stores waiting for the newest phone release ?
iPhone sales grew only 1% last year. Compared to Huawei (38% increase) which overtook Apple for the first time in smartphone shipments. Alarmingly, Apple has lost 1/3 of its value over the past six months. This downward spiral will only deepen and get worse.
 
“Special” point of sale device is a loaded term in the USA I am finding. Canada has had wireless chip Visa cards for more than a decade - works with Apple Pay too
I am talking about merchandise PoS equipment(I believe for Apple Pay vendors required to buy this) not the consumer device which is iPhone or compatible Apple device
 
On this topic of why is AAPL stock still way down from their high, I do actually wonder.

There are 4.7B shares. How many shares were bought back in this last quarter then? ZERO? It seems like the “buy shares back quickly” statement made back in July/Aug conference call was not sincere?

Didnt Apple promise to buy back shares? I thought they still has $80B earmarked for that buyback and that we would have seen a lot of buyback action, but I do think that this activity is missing! Absent!

There are many peculiarities and I’m looking for the answers. Lots of other things if interested.
This data is fully disclosed to investors. They bought back $8B in AAPL shares in the December quarter and have around $63B left for buybacks. They will update investors on their capital return program when they report again in 90 days.

https://s22.q4cdn.com/396847794/files/doc_downloads/Return_of_Capital_and_Net_Cash_Position.pdf

They are likely buying more as we speak.

I was disappointed in the amount that was purchased in calendar Q4. Simply not enough, but I don't have visibility into why. The $100B earmarked for buybacks will be used for buybacks, no question. It's all about timing.
 
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Can someone explain the re-allocation of amortized value from products to services? It was all the analysts were talking about a week ago, and the call comes and goes, and Apple says, "Hey, services grew 19%" while not disclosing how much of that 19% growth was from reallocation of revenue. Seems like shenanigans to me.
I think Katy Huberty asked that question on the conference call last night. Luca's answer was something about "free updates" being reallocated under Services where it had been under Products. He said it had a "diluting" effect to the growth rate of the Services sector.

You should probably read the transcript of the conference call if you haven't already done so.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...aapl-q1-2019-earnings-conference-call-tr.aspx

Kathryn Huberty -- Morgan Stanley & Co. -- Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. Services growth did decelerate from the growth rates in recent quarters. So, can you talk about the factors that played into that slower growth? And then appreciate the new disclosure around paid subscribers. But if you compare what you added in 2018 versus what you expect to add over the next two years, that implies a slowdown in annual net new subscribers. So, should we be thinking about services as a lower growth segment than what you experienced in 2018? And then I have a follow-up.


Luca Maestri -- Apple, Inc. -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Katie. Let me take that one. First of all, when we talk about the services business, it's very important to start from the momentum that we have. As you know, we have set an ambitious target for ourselves to double the size of our business from fiscal '16 to 2020 which implied at the time a 19% Kaiger. So far, we've been able to grow above 20%. In fiscal '18, we grew 22%. So, we are on track to achieve our objective. And it's important to understand what is driving the growth of the business. First of all, it's our install base. As we just told you, the install base continues to grow very nicely. It has reached 1.4 billion active devices at the end of December. And really, very little of our services revenue is driven by what we sold in the last 90 days. The second factor for the growth of the services business is that within this installed base, the percentage of users who are paying for at least one service is growing very strongly. This is due to several factors.

First of all, we're offering more and more services. During the last few years, as you know, we've launched Apple Music, Apple Pay, an advertising service for our developers on the app store. All these businesses are growing very strongly. Second, we are making it easier for our customers to transact on our digital stores. We accept many more payment methods today which are very common in certain countries around the world. We've also increased the distribution coverage for many of these services. We're bringing Apple Care to more points of sale around the world. We are launching Apple Pay in more and more markets. And so on. Thirdly, as you mention, our subscriptions are becoming a very large portion of our business. And they are growing very well above services average. The fact that we are saying that we will surpass half a billion during 2020 -- we're not putting a specific date during 2020.

But I think you've seen over recent quarters that we've been adding about $120 million on a year-over-year basis for a number of quarters now. And this is an incredible, staggering number when you think about it. We're also broadening the scope of many of these services. If you take Apple Pay as an example, it started off as the most convenient, most private, and most secure way to make a payment in a store or in an app. Then we took Apple Pay to Safari. Then we started a peer-to-peer service. And we're launching it in new markets across the world every quarter. So, we are broadening that scope. And of course, similar to what we've done in the past, in the last three years, we launched several new services. We're also looking to launch new services going forward that we believe will provide great value to our users. And we're really very excited about the opportunities that we see in front of us. I think you're referring to the deceleration in the growth rate that we've seen in the December quarter.

And I think you're referring back to the growth that we reported in September. I think an important point I need to make -- and I think it's helpful that you asked the question -- is that a portion of this deceleration is truly just a reclassification of the amortization of free services that we've made in connection with the adoption of the new revenue recognition standard. And as we explained 90 days ago, this amortization of free services in the past was reported under products. And now, it gets reported under services. The reclassification is actually diluted to our growth rate because the amortization of free services is a relatively stable number which gets applied to a growing base. So, this reclassification reduces our growth rate versus the previous classification. This factor, by itself, represents roughly one-third of the deceleration that you've seen. We talked about 27% growth in the September quarter. With the reclassification, the growth rate was about 24.5%.

So, that explains about a third of that deceleration. There are, I would say, three factors that explain this difference between the 24.5% to the 19%. The first one is that foreign exchange plays a role. Roughly 60% of our services business is outside the United States. And as you know, the US dollar has appreciated in recent months. And in general, we tend not to reprise our services for foreign exchange on a very frequent basis. The second factor is a well-known issue around the app store in China. The app store in China is a large business for us. We believe this issue around the approval of new-gain titles is temporary in nature but clearly is affecting our business right now.

And then thirdly, we have seen some level of deceleration in Apple Care which has had very, very strong growth during fiscal '18 where we're starting to lap some of the increase in distribution coverage that we put in place recently and the channel field of Apple components that happened when we increased the distribution coverage. But in general, we're very, very pleased with 90% growth. And we think that the business will continue to grow nicely going forward.
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May be so....Apple Pay requires special PoS device. Samsung Pay uses existing PoS devices much simpler implementation. Also, in my place contactless cash wallets use QR Code for Merchant Payments and I have done as big as $1200 using such methods. Apple Pay is unnecessary in most of the places in our region
Not sure how it's done in India, but one of the main reasons to use ApplePay (and NFC in general) is the security features. The merchant doesn't get access to your credit card number when you use ApplePay. So when their servers get hacked, your credit card number isn't out there for purchase by nefarious entities.

SamsungPay is primarily NFC. It does have the ability to fall back on the magnetic stripe "emulation" when the terminal doesn't accept NFC. When this is the case, your actual credit card number is used and you lose all of the security features.

In reality, it's pretty much a moot point. Your credit card number is likely on dozens of merchant's servers anyway. And in the US, pretty much all terminal have NFC and the ones that don't (small shops, local restaurants) aren't prime targets for hackers.
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Remember when people would camp-out at Apple stores waiting for the newest phone release ?
iPhone sales grew only 1% last year. Compared to Huawei (38% increase) which overtook Apple for the first time in smartphone shipments. Alarmingly, Apple has lost 1/3 of its value over the past six months. This downward spiral will only deepen and get worse.
OK. Thanks for the heads up.
 
Incredible how small Mac sales have become as a part of their revenue. I don’t know what’s more astonishing, that fact about the Mac sales, or the fact people are dooming and glooming over a company that just posted $84.3B in earnings in a single quarter.

Apple would get a major boost to sales if they updated the Mac line. Since Cook took over, the Mac line has had more issues with longer intervals between releases and it is starting to feel like he is looking to kill off the Mac.

I think what is going on here is Apple has scavenged people and resources form Mac development to take advantage of the cash-cow that the iPhone has become. Since we now live in a world of government shutdowns and trade wars, people are feeling the pinch or are bracing for one. A lot of people are now too nervous to dump the cash on a status symbol that has in turn created a finical bubble that is now on the edge of bursting. If the economy does not improve devices like the iPhone and iWatch are going to drop off to a fraction of what they are now. At the same time Mac sales, form the lack of updated hardware combined with buggy software, will drop off as people go with cheaper alternatives, perhaps generating a temporary boost to iPad sales in the next few years as people use iPads to replace full computers due to the price.

What Apple should do is; each mouth a product has been available to the public, degrade 1% off the base price, this drop off in profit would be a great encouragement to update current lines of neglected products like the Mac, while giving people a break from the bloated Apple prices.
 
I think Katy Huberty asked that question on the conference call last night. Luca's answer was something about "free updates" being reallocated under Services where it had been under Products. He said it had a "diluting" effect to the growth rate of the Services sector.

You should probably read the transcript of the conference call if you haven't already done so.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...aapl-q1-2019-earnings-conference-call-tr.aspx


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Not sure how it's done in India, but one of the main reasons to use ApplePay (and NFC in general) is the security features. The merchant doesn't get access to your credit card number when you use ApplePay. So when their servers get hacked, your credit card number isn't out there for purchase by nefarious entities.

SamsungPay is primarily NFC. It does have the ability to fall back on the magnetic stripe "emulation" when the terminal doesn't accept NFC. When this is the case, your actual credit card number is used and you lose all of the security features.

In reality, it's pretty much a moot point. Your credit card number is likely on dozens of merchant's servers anyway. And in the US, pretty much all terminal have NFC and the ones that don't (small shops, local restaurants) aren't prime targets for hackers.
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OK. Thanks for the heads up.
Since we don’t use magnetic stripe terminals in the UK and haven’t done so for more than 10 years, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay and Google Pay all work via NFC and can be used in the same places. I suppose the advantage Apple Pay has is that it is supported by more banks than the other 2 in the UK.
 
Since we don’t use magnetic stripe terminals in the UK and haven’t done so for more than 10 years, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay and Google Pay all work via NFC and can be used in the same places. I suppose the advantage Apple Pay has is that it is supported by more banks than the other 2 in the UK.
Yes. The UK and Europe in general have had NFC for a long time now. So SamsungPay really isn't accepted more widely than ApplePay.

In the US, we've just only converted to NFC and SamsungPay had wider acceptance from merchants due to emulating the magnetic strip. Now that NFC terminals have been deployed to most merchants, there's very little difference (in terms of acceptance) between ApplePay and SamPay

The poster that I was addressing is in India. Seems like he's implying that India is behind even the US in terms of NFC terminals. So SamsungPay would have an advantage in India.
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Apple would get a major boost to sales if they updated the Mac line. Since Cook took over, the Mac line has had more issues with longer intervals between releases and it is starting to feel like he is looking to kill off the Mac.

I think what is going on here is Apple has scavenged people and resources form Mac development to take advantage of the cash-cow that the iPhone has become. Since we now live in a world of government shutdowns and trade wars, people are feeling the pinch or are bracing for one. A lot of people are now too nervous to dump the cash on a status symbol that has in turn created a finical bubble that is now on the edge of bursting. If the economy does not improve devices like the iPhone and iWatch are going to drop off to a fraction of what they are now. At the same time Mac sales, form the lack of updated hardware combined with buggy software, will drop off as people go with cheaper alternatives, perhaps generating a temporary boost to iPad sales in the next few years as people use iPads to replace full computers due to the price.

What Apple should do is; each mouth a product has been available to the public, degrade 1% off the base price, this drop off in profit would be a great encouragement to update current lines of neglected products like the Mac, while giving people a break from the bloated Apple prices.
I think Apple is not focusing as much on the Mac (as compared to the past) is that computers in general are being replaced by smartphones. The primary computing device has become the smartphone. If you need a bigger screen, then people turn to tablets.

The use cases for a computer are less and less and Apple is devoting fewer resources to them accordingly.

As for reducing prices month-by-month, you know that'll never happen.
 
Yes. The UK and Europe in general have had NFC for a long time now. So SamsungPay really isn't accepted more widely than ApplePay.

In the US, we've just only converted to NFC and SamsungPay had wider acceptance from merchants due to emulating the magnetic strip. Now that NFC terminals have been deployed to most merchants, there's very little difference (in terms of acceptance) between ApplePay and SamPay

The poster that I was addressing is in India. Seems like he's implying that India is behind even the US in terms of NFC terminals. So SamsungPay would have an advantage in India.
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I think Apple is not focusing as much on the Mac (as compared to the past) is that computers in general are being replaced by smartphones. The primary computing device has become the smartphone. If you need a bigger screen, then people turn to tablets.

The use cases for a computer are less and less and Apple is devoting fewer resources to them accordingly.

As for reducing prices month-by-month, you know that'll never happen.
I completely agree with this. For most people who don’t require a computer at home for studying or working from home a tablet will do what most people need.

I have a MBA but I really don’t need it and don’t use it often. I have 2 iPads but my iPhone is my primary computer which is why I upgrade it every year.
 
This data is fully disclosed to investors. They bought back $8B in AAPL shares in the December quarter and have around $63B left for buybacks. They will update investors on their capital return program when they report again in 90 days.

https://s22.q4cdn.com/396847794/files/doc_downloads/Return_of_Capital_and_Net_Cash_Position.pdf

They are likely buying more as we speak.

I was disappointed in the amount that was purchased in calendar Q4. Simply not enough, but I don't have visibility into why. The $100B earmarked for buybacks will be used for buybacks, no question. It's all about timing.

Yes I thought I saw $8B in the financials with fancy words for share buyback, but it was just that I was expecting so much more of a buyback! It didn’t even look like the number of shares changed - which is why I asked.

They said they would buy back rapidly, and this most recent conference call didn’t carry the same message - instead they now said “strategic”. They should be buying back soonish! I feel like I trusted what they said a bit too much. They said China was fine in November! In July they said they were rapidly buying back shares. That class action lawsuit is legit.
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I am talking about merchandise PoS equipment(I believe for Apple Pay vendors required to buy this) not the consumer device which is iPhone or compatible Apple device

I’m talking about the point of sale terminals. The ones in Canada are fairly good. They either accept wireless or they don’t. Here in the states, nobody knows for sure. The Walgreens clerk will tell you that you must insert your card, then I tap my card and surprise, it works. Then another place says they accept Apple Pay, “Bashas” groceries, and you try Apple Pay, and it doesn’t work! USA banks are horrible - but at least they use real money :)

Go for tacos at some taco stand, hand over your card. Sign a paper. Then 2 days later you have to call visa fraud center to get a replacement because “someone” somehow is using your number.

The visa merchant companies need more standards I’d say. They are being a bit cheap with the pos terminals and it wastes many man hours.

Ever seen Apple Pay NOT work? I have - in USA! I find it insulting when a clerk wants to take my card and run off into a back room with it. Haven’t done that in Canada for over a decade.
 
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The stock markets are based on supply and demand and where people want to buy Apple stock. Analysts simply try to predict how the market is going to react to news and earning reports from Apple, but they can never know for sure.
Huh? 3 months ago Apple warned of slower-than-expected holiday sales. But it turned out to be even worse than Cook predicted....analysts had nothing to do with it. And after 12 years, Cook suddenly announces that Apple will stop disclosing how many iPhones it sells each quarter, making it more difficult to track the demand of Apple products. Stock prices move based on the market's "expectations" of a company not supply and demand.
 
Huh? 3 months ago Apple warned of slower-than-expected holiday sales. But it turned out to be even worse than Cook predicted....analysts had nothing to do with it. And after 12 years, Cook suddenly announces that Apple will stop disclosing how many iPhones it sells each quarter, making it more difficult to track the demand of Apple products. Stock prices move based on the market's "expectations" of a company not supply and demand.

I meant supply and demand for Apple stocks. Not their products.
 
Huh? 3 months ago Apple warned of slower-than-expected holiday sales. But it turned out to be even worse than Cook predicted....analysts had nothing to do with it. And after 12 years, Cook suddenly announces that Apple will stop disclosing how many iPhones it sells each quarter, making it more difficult to track the demand of Apple products. Stock prices move based on the market's "expectations" of a company not supply and demand.
3 months ago was November. Apple did not warn of slower-than-expected holiday sales. They did that 3 weeks ago.

In November 2018, Apple was predicting an all-time Revenue record. $89-$93Billion. Not to mention predicting an all-time Earnings record.

That's what they guided for Q1-2019.

Apple was tired of analysts focusing not on either the top-line or the bottom-line, but the middle-line. They were tired of posting record sales and earnings, but getting beat up because the middle-line didn't grow as much as some guy in a suit thought it would.

Of course, you're unlikely to be convinced that Apple wasn't hiding something, especially since the quarter turned out the way it did. That's fine.

I do agree that the stock price moves based on expectation, not results.

I personally feel that AAPL is undervalued by Wall St. by a significant amount. I'm betting that at some point, the market will understand how undervalued AAPL is and I'll end up making bank.

Data - Apple has $250B in cash. There's 4.77B shares outstanding. That's about $50/sh in cash. Subtract that out from the current stock price $165/sh and you get about $115/sh.

Apple has earned about $60B in the last 4 quarters. That's an EPS of $12.60. Factoring out cash, Apple is providing about $11 of earnings for every $100 you invest. That's SO SO SO cheap.

I should slap myself for not having the guts to buy more when the stock got smacked around after the "letter".
 
What about the 38% that is not iPhone?

How many billions of dollars is that 38% that is not iPhone revenues? It’s still pretty good right? Oh wait, what does “pretty good” mean? Compare the 38% that is not iPhone to any other company and see if you can tell that Apple is many gigantic successful companies rolled into one. Sorry I’m not citing references and examples for you, but I’m hoping you and any others can check for themselves and see the obvious.

Firstly, it’s actually against forum rules to tell others to search for the information themselves that back up your claims..
Secondly, that 38% means absolutely nothing to you investors, you should know that, the iPhone slumped in sales and investors promptly wiped 400 billion off Apples value in 2 months...
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They dont give numbers do they so cant say for sure but likely they sold more iPads but Macs will account for a greater portion of revenue on smaller unit sales. That was certainly the case in Q4 2018, iirc they made nearly double the revenue on half the units sold for Macs v iPad

Yet people on here will still tell you Apple shouldn't care about it at all and the iPad is the future.
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See above. Funny thing is if they put as much effort into the Mac as they do the iPad it would probably be a significantly bigger business for them.

I agree with that! Shame it seems to be a second rate product line to them now?
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All time quarterly record for Mac if I read the numbers correctly. 9% up YoY.
So Apple seems to do fine without advertising.

And what Macs are those then? iMacs, Mac Pro’s, or MacBooks..
 
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