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Apple Reports Best Quarterly Results Ever in Q1 2013: $13.1 Billion Profit on $54.5 Billion in Revenue [Call Ended]
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Perpetual Apple Defenders: why you are seeing the whining is because the stock is down. It doesn't matter if a company makes record profits, or has good products, or launches good products, or was founded by a guy named Steve- for those that own a lot of stock in that company, they want to see the stock go up. If it goes down, they lose a lot of personal money. They feel direct pain. So they whine (and should).
Analysts are not "stupid" because the stock is going down. Analysts work for firms that want people to buy a lot of stock. Stocks losing money means sell orders and that money flows out of accounts they control and could go somewhere else (where their firms can't make a commission). That's why analysts tend to be heavily biased to the bull side: they want AAPL to go to the moon (too). They are not stupid for wanting that either. It's good for them and their customers (some of which are whining in this thread).
Whiners: you have yourselves to blame. Believing that any stock is going to go to the moon is a mistake made again and again throughout history. When the profit slope gets to a fairly steep angle, it becomes very difficult to maintain that angle indefinitely. If the angle slumps, so goes the stock. You can't maintain that kind of growth at large scale sizes unless you are rolling out new "next big things" faster and faster over time. Riding old NBTs offered in new sizes, weights & colors can only carry you so far.
What Apple has been doing to try to maintain record growth is roll out existing products to more markets sooner than they did in the past. Remember when a product would launch in the U.S. and maybe Canada? Then, every quarter or so, a list of other countries would be entered. Now, Apple has to roll out much quicker than the past because it is a strain to be the biggest company in the world and maintain the crazy growth expected from years of setting records.
But that's also why rumors of more frequent updates are heating up. If you roll out to just about all markets in about half or a third of the time you used to roll out, you have to have something new to sell sooner because the old thing will already be sold everywhere. You have to give the markets new versions faster because you've already introduced the latest versions to all of the markets. Else, you'll get killed in the quarters following global reach rollouts because those that really want it will have already bought it.
What Apple needs to get back on track is a new "next big thing"- which is not a different size of an existing product but something that is truly a new thing. Apple historical growth tracks each major NBT:
2001: iPod
2007: iPhone (6 years later)
2010: iPad (3 years)
2012: (nothing, but needed it)
2013: (something?)
Apple needed a NBT in 2012. We didn't get it (a smaller existing product or a retina screen obviously didn't do it... and won't). That iDevice line of NBT seems to have matured out, so the next NBT is probably not a variation of iPod/iPhone/iPad but something that is tangibly different from that line of products.
Is it a TV? I find that one hard to imagine as having as much of an impact as- say- iPhone or iPad after it rolled out, in spite of the endless rumors about it. So what is it? Don't know, but it needed to hit in 2012 and it better hit in 2013 or expect the stock to feel the pain.
If you look at the pace at which Apple needs new NBTs, should one arrive in 2013, they probably will need to roll out another in 2015- maybe 2014- to maintain the accelerating pace of NBTs to support record-breaking growth going forward. We need to see that kind of "wow" product rollouts for AAPL to get back on track and run to new records. A new thinner "old big thing" or a lighter "old big thing" isn't strong enough to ride to new all-time records much further.
If you buy that the pace of NBT rollouts needs to accelerate, the worry then, is the recent consolidation of power at the top of the company (where fewer guys now have more responsibilities). Another thing a big company needs is to build a lot of little Steves than to consolidate broad responsibilities to fewer and fewer guys. We celebrated Ive getting hardware and software design but that could also be seen as half of his former focus on hardware will now shift to software. Sure, they all have legions of employees underneath them but I would be surprised if even the most steadfast Apple cheerleader would dare argue that Apple is more delegation than consolidation.
At times in the past, it has sounded like every decision had to be made by Steve. That can work when you are a little-to-medium-sized company. When you are the biggest company in the world, if a handful of guys have to make every decision, the max output of that little team is the bottleneck to how fast that company can continue to grow.
Analysts are not "stupid" because the stock is going down. Analysts work for firms that want people to buy a lot of stock. Stocks losing money means sell orders and that money flows out of accounts they control and could go somewhere else (where their firms can't make a commission). That's why analysts tend to be heavily biased to the bull side: they want AAPL to go to the moon (too). They are not stupid for wanting that either. It's good for them and their customers (some of which are whining in this thread).
Whiners: you have yourselves to blame. Believing that any stock is going to go to the moon is a mistake made again and again throughout history. When the profit slope gets to a fairly steep angle, it becomes very difficult to maintain that angle indefinitely. If the angle slumps, so goes the stock. You can't maintain that kind of growth at large scale sizes unless you are rolling out new "next big things" faster and faster over time. Riding old NBTs offered in new sizes, weights & colors can only carry you so far.
What Apple has been doing to try to maintain record growth is roll out existing products to more markets sooner than they did in the past. Remember when a product would launch in the U.S. and maybe Canada? Then, every quarter or so, a list of other countries would be entered. Now, Apple has to roll out much quicker than the past because it is a strain to be the biggest company in the world and maintain the crazy growth expected from years of setting records.
But that's also why rumors of more frequent updates are heating up. If you roll out to just about all markets in about half or a third of the time you used to roll out, you have to have something new to sell sooner because the old thing will already be sold everywhere. You have to give the markets new versions faster because you've already introduced the latest versions to all of the markets. Else, you'll get killed in the quarters following global reach rollouts because those that really want it will have already bought it.
What Apple needs to get back on track is a new "next big thing"- which is not a different size of an existing product but something that is truly a new thing. Apple historical growth tracks each major NBT:
2001: iPod
2007: iPhone (6 years later)
2010: iPad (3 years)
2012: (nothing, but needed it)
2013: (something?)
Apple needed a NBT in 2012. We didn't get it (a smaller existing product or a retina screen obviously didn't do it... and won't). That iDevice line of NBT seems to have matured out, so the next NBT is probably not a variation of iPod/iPhone/iPad but something that is tangibly different from that line of products.
Is it a TV? I find that one hard to imagine as having as much of an impact as- say- iPhone or iPad after it rolled out, in spite of the endless rumors about it. So what is it? Don't know, but it needed to hit in 2012 and it better hit in 2013 or expect the stock to feel the pain.
If you look at the pace at which Apple needs new NBTs, should one arrive in 2013, they probably will need to roll out another in 2015- maybe 2014- to maintain the accelerating pace of NBTs to support record-breaking growth going forward. We need to see that kind of "wow" product rollouts for AAPL to get back on track and run to new records. A new thinner "old big thing" or a lighter "old big thing" isn't strong enough to ride to new all-time records much further.
If you buy that the pace of NBT rollouts needs to accelerate, the worry then, is the recent consolidation of power at the top of the company (where fewer guys now have more responsibilities). Another thing a big company needs is to build a lot of little Steves than to consolidate broad responsibilities to fewer and fewer guys. We celebrated Ive getting hardware and software design but that could also be seen as half of his former focus on hardware will now shift to software. Sure, they all have legions of employees underneath them but I would be surprised if even the most steadfast Apple cheerleader would dare argue that Apple is more delegation than consolidation.
At times in the past, it has sounded like every decision had to be made by Steve. That can work when you are a little-to-medium-sized company. When you are the biggest company in the world, if a handful of guys have to make every decision, the max output of that little team is the bottleneck to how fast that company can continue to grow.
Every company should be so lucky to have Apple's "problems" with earnings.
Sucks that the stock is trading down, but I'm not all that concerned. I'm holding long term and I still think things look good overall. I can't see the stock going much lower than the after hours price of $475. At that price, the $2.65/share dividend equates to 2.2% with an annual yield of 2.25%. That's better than bonds.
EDIT: It is going lower - $460. Looks like I'm going to be buying some more.
Sucks that the stock is trading down, but I'm not all that concerned. I'm holding long term and I still think things look good overall. I can't see the stock going much lower than the after hours price of $475. At that price, the $2.65/share dividend equates to 2.2% with an annual yield of 2.25%. That's better than bonds.
EDIT: It is going lower - $460. Looks like I'm going to be buying some more.
It was well known they low balled every quarter. Wall St used to price this in, but now it seems like they're being more realistic.
I guess I'm old school in my thinking but a company pulling in $13 billion in profit per quarter, with virtually zero debt, billions in reserve cash and a $13.45 per diluted share report should be going up rather that down.
Wall Street is screwed in the head. The tail is wagging the dog at this point.
I like Amazon but I can't see how their crazy business model gets rewarded over Apples. I'll be dead of old age before Amazon starts pulling in the numbers Apple is already achieving.
Wall Street is screwed in the head. The tail is wagging the dog at this point.
I like Amazon but I can't see how their crazy business model gets rewarded over Apples. I'll be dead of old age before Amazon starts pulling in the numbers Apple is already achieving.
Email! iMessage! And I don't have to be in the same room as you with our phones humping each other to do it!
I think there is only limited room for growth if your least (!) expensive phone is 450$ without contract - and more than two and a half years old (iPhone 4 with 8GB).
If I didn't know any better I'd say Tim is purposefully driving the price down to make for a better buyback.
It's $461 right now. I do not expect it to go that low tomorrow though. On the other hand the long term is not looking good at all. Do not think that the "good company's" stock can't drop significantly. Notice how INTC dropped from $74 in 2000 to $21 now and Intel makes way more money now than they did back then.
Macs are only 10% of their business. Good for them, otherwise the stock would have entirely collapsed now, along with their revenue + profits.
Therefore, there won't be a major effect on next quarter's bottom line or the share price either when Mac sales rebound. Everyone knows that they'll report "record Mac sales" next quarter, but it won't bring in enough $$ to offset disappointing iPhone sales.
Sorry, I meant "some" bonds; treasury bonds - short and intermediate term. Almost as good as a bond index fund (BND) with a yield at around 2.7%. Though bonds obviously also have lower risk.
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True, but I'm not sure it's valid to compare INTC with AAPL. They are in fundamentally different businesses.
That said, the classic financial idiom may apply here. "The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent."
I would wait to see how China and the Apple TV plays out to get a clearer picture.
Reading is FUNdamental.
Any reasonable person would interpret what you wrote to mean that the dividend would begin payout on Feb. 11 2013. This is not the case. I've already received two dividend payments and will receive the third shortly. Also, being a smart ass is excusable if you have your facts down or at least express yourself in a logical manner. You are not excused.
The mobile and tablet market in the United States is going to be what happened to the PC market in the country over 10 years ago. A race to the bottom in pricing. Apple will carve out it's niche position and continue to grow. But just like the PC market a large amount of people will be just fine using a phone or tablet that does things maybe not as good as an iPhone or iPad.. but it will be at half the cost.. Price out weighs quality in a product market when it has reached maturity and without a doubt if Apple wants to dominate marketshare they will have to sacrifice their margin to get it (iPad mini) to get it. However good news for Apple is that the emerging markets (China, Brazil and India) are all ripe with people looking for an iDevice just like everyone else. Apple will grow, but expect percentage of international profits to go up from 60% substantially.