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Stock up almost 4% now.

Apple guided to a 14-17% growth for the March quarter. I still want to know where this slashing X production is in that guidance?
The stock is up mostly because of the planned restructuring of their capital. More buybacks expected. It was otherwise down slightly on the “miss” for the Q2 guidance.
 
Dividends, buybacks and M&A. Luca Maestri told the Financial Times that they see Apple reducing its net cash position to $0. It’s around $135 billion right now after the one-time repatriation tax and the EU fine.
As stated by Luca on the call (i just listened it its entirety), it’s $163B. The EU fine and one time tax repatriation are separate. Those have been accrued and the EU tax is in escrow and will be appealed endlessly. If they end up winning appeals, it will be a windfall.
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The stock is up mostly because of the planned restructuring of their capital. More buybacks expected. It was otherwise down slightly on the “miss” for the Q2 guidance.
The “miss” in guidance would only be against some made up analyst number. They reported $52B in the Q2 2017 period, so a $62B quarter would be strong double digit growth.

The earnings call was extremely bullish, particularly on the X which Cook let slip that it continues to be the best selling iPhone through January.

We will see the X for a full 3 months and in full availability for the entirety of Q2.

Impossible to know “why” the stock is up. It’s up for many reasons, including the realization that ASPs are going higher.
 
Proponents are so reasonable.

I am not the one claiming that the iPhone X wouldn’t sell.

I get it. It’s unpopular and categorically uncool to root for Apple these days, given that it is now a massive corporation who needs more scrutiny and completion rather than blind adoration.

But just like it’s awesome to watch Serena Williams or Usain Bolt dominate their respective sports over the years (even if it doesn’t always make for cliffhanger matches), I most certainly can be impressed by Apple and be in awe of its reign of excellence.

So to Apple, I applaud you. It’s been a decade since the first release of the iPhone, and I think it’s astounding just how well you’ve been able to improve, iterate, and stay the champ for so long.

Onwards! All the way to the top!
 
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Well done Apple. Does that mean they can stop overcharging people for outdated computers and upgrade the Mac Mini?
 
Anybody want to speculate what, if anything, Apple will do for the stockholders with the money they bring back from overseas????


Nothing?
Increase dividends?
More stock buybacks?
Etc........
Luca started they will adopt a “net zero” cash position meaning $163B will be put to work. He also said they’ll do what they’ve done in the past, indicating more dividends and buybacks. Update coming next Q.
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Personally disappointed to see the dividend the same. I was again hoping for a bump as the yield continues to fall.
You’ll take some share appreciation as opposed to a bigger div, right? I’d rather them do buybacks instead anyway.
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Stock up almost 4% now.

Apple guided to a 14-17% growth for the March quarter. I still want to know where this slashing X production is in that guidance?
Nikkei and the rest were fake news, as I predicted. It’s just a shame the stock moved from $180 to $167 based on nothing. Still takes time to recover even with a solid quarter.
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When Tim and Luca mentioned the difference in weeks per quarter, the AAPL after-market price jumped.
Shows how reactionary and clueless “investors” can be. These are nearly traders, not guys like Buffett who has a nice 134M shares.
 
The average iPad sale was $445. Also, a lot of first time buyers. This seems to indicate that the base iPad 2017 was a big seller, since the cheapest iPad Pro is $650 and a fully loaded 12.9 iPad Pro is about $1200.
 
It’s not good to gloat.

But still, with all the FUD about the iPhone X recently and the frankly tedious wave of negative comments on every single article about it, it’s refreshing that the confirmed numbers at least prove otherwise. Best selling phone of the entire line & the revenue confirms this even with overall less iPhone sales.

Well, this pretty much happens every single year when there’s some silly article about lower sales or manufacturing slowing down. The cycle repeats.


Yes, but I am tired of this fake news - even Reuters is guilty of passing along that garbage Nikkei Asia News article.
 
They missed street unit estimates by 3 million units - sold 77.3 million phones vs 80.2 million estimates. They also sold fewer 1% fewer phones than last year. So much for the "mega cycle" predicted by some analysts.

Had one week less in the quarter.
 
You’ll take some share appreciation as opposed to a bigger div, right? I’d rather them do buybacks instead anyway.
Not really at this time. I don’t plan on selling anytime soon and I have enough appreciation (bought most of my shares 20 years ago)
:)
 
I have to ask something.

Q1 of 2017 the ASP was $695 Q1 of 2018 the ASP is $796 ... a difference of $101US October to January 2016-2017 the iPhone 7 was king and it was $300-500 cheaper than the iPhone X at launch and during the full year. From 2016 to 2017: Apple sold the iPhone 5S, SE, iPhone 6, and 6S, and the iPhone 7 Globally. From 2017 to 2018: Apple sold the iPhone SE, iPhone 6S, 7, 8, and the X. (This is 2 not one, but 2 new phones at the same and higher retail costs, average profits per unit (8 & X) and much higher Contract/Retail pricing on the X. So why ONLY the $101US difference in ASP IF the iPhone X is selling a LOT more that Apple is making us all believe it to be? I call PURE BS!!!

PS: prices are from Bloomberg.com on ASP.
 
I am not the one claiming that the iPhone X wouldn’t sell.

I get it. It’s unpopular and categorically uncool to root for Apple these days, given that it is now a massive corporation who needs more scrutiny and completion rather than blind adoration.

But just like it’s awesome to watch Serena Williams or Usain Bolt dominate their respective sports over the years (even if it doesn’t always make for cliffhanger matches), I most certainly can be impressed by Apple and be in awe of its reign of excellence.

So to Apple, I applaud you. It’s been a decade since the first release of the iPhone, and I think it’s astounding just how well you’ve been able to improve, iterate, and stay the champ for so long.

Onwards! All the way to the top!

I get it. It’s uncool to think anyone can reasonably have an issue with any Apple product, service, or policy. It’s unpopular to think a consumer can credibly constructively critique a company they care about.

That said, you can totally root for Apple and be in awe of them...I just take issue with your blanket statement against those with critiques.
 
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I have to ask something.

Q1 of 2017 the ASP was $695 Q1 of 2018 the ASP is $796 ... a difference of $101US October to January 2016-2017 the iPhone 7 was king and it was $300-500 cheaper than the iPhone X at launch and during the full year. From 2016 to 2017: Apple sold the iPhone 5S, SE, iPhone 6, and 6S, and the iPhone 7 Globally. From 2017 to 2018: Apple sold the iPhone SE, iPhone 6S, 7, 8, and the X. (This is 2 not one, but 2 new phones at the same and higher retail costs, average profits per unit (8 & X) and much higher Contract/Retail pricing on the X. So why ONLY the $101US difference in ASP IF the iPhone X is selling a LOT more that Apple is making us all believe it to be? I call PURE BS!!!

ASP in Q1 2015 was $687 with the iPhone 6 / 6 Plus having base prices of $629 / $749
ASP in Q1 2016 was $691 with the iPhone 6s / 6s Plus having base prices of $649 / $749
ASP in Q1 2017 was $695 with the iPhone 7 / 7 Plus having base prices of $649 / $769

Base prices for the iPhone 8 / 8 Plus are $699 / $799. If those were the only two models Apple sold, ASPs should have risen to a bit over $700 based on previous movements and taking into account the $50 increase in the iPhone 8's price compared to the 6s and 7.

The only way you get a $101 increase in ASP is because you sold a shedload of $999 of iPhone Xs (and more likely a shedload of $1149 iPhone Xs).
 
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I get it. It’s uncool to think anyone can reasonably have an issue with any Apple product, service, or policy. It’s unpopular to think a consumer can credibly constructively critique a company they care about.

That said, you can totally root for Apple and be in awe of them...I just take issue with your blanket statement against those with critiques.

You miss my point.

It’s okay to complain about the $1000 price tag of the iPhone X. It’s another to claim that the iPhone X won’t sell just because of one’s own personal feelings on the matter.

I am all for constructive criticism. Thing is, I am just not seeing that here. Just look at the first several pages of any new thread, not forgetting the first few comments. Note how shallow and superficial and utterly devoid of any meaningful response there is. Do those look like constructive criticism to you?
 
So why ONLY the $101US difference in ASP IF the iPhone X is selling a LOT more that Apple is making us all believe it to be?

Did you take algebra? As an exercise for the student, work out what percentage of 77M iPhones it would take for a $1k iPhone to raise the average from $700 to $800. It's not a small percentage or number, given that 5 other different models are also on the top selling list.
 
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How is this even possible?

On the iPhone X:
  • It's way too expensive at $1,000. Nobody will pay that much.
  • FaceID is useless, bring back TouchID.
  • That notch. Not only ugly but interferes with all my content and videos.
  • Glass back? I don't want a fragile phone.
On the iPhone 8:
  • Not enough of an upgrade from the iPhone 7.
  • They still kept the same basic design? Lame.
On Macs:
  • Still no Mac Mini updates? People are waiting.
  • iMac Pro? I can build a machine for 1/2 the price that's 3x as fast.
  • Still only 16GB on the MBP? I require 32GB to be productive.

So my question for all the naysayers and analysts is this. How does it feel to be wrong? Not just wrong, but utterly and spectacularly wrong?

I don’t disagree, but there is an element of concern about long term sustainability here. The growth in revenue distracts from a negative growth in the number of phones sold in their largest segment (by far). I need to look at this more, but the first reading of this implies that the growth is a rebaselining of the price and cost of their flagship products. This is not a sustainable growth model; i.e. if the maintained their margins but upped the price and proportionate cost so that the next iPhone retailed @ $3000, the growth push would fail. That’s an extreme price increase scenario, but it makes the point though.

Unit growth and maintained margins would be better signs of their success and we are not seeing that. What has delivered growth in units is an adoption of industry trends (eg larger form factor phones). The driver for growth is therefore not an in-house brain trust. What keeps customers like me on board is a recent return to quality in both hardware and software - in my experience anyway. I’d like to see details on customer churn, but I’d be surprised if we saw growth there. We are also tending to move away from some of their categories as well: eg I don’t see a computer as a necessity and so I haven’t bought my daughters one for their education and that is quite normal.

Overall there is some doom and gloom here as apple moves further into its stable phase. It’s like exploding kittens (for those that play): Apple has had to use its defuse card(s) over the past few years and my concern is that they have nothing left and therefore have no defence against to protect them from competitors.
 
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I have to ask something.

Q1 of 2017 the ASP was $695 Q1 of 2018 the ASP is $796 ... a difference of $101US October to January 2016-2017 the iPhone 7 was king and it was $300-500 cheaper than the iPhone X at launch and during the full year. From 2016 to 2017: Apple sold the iPhone 5S, SE, iPhone 6, and 6S, and the iPhone 7 Globally. From 2017 to 2018: Apple sold the iPhone SE, iPhone 6S, 7, 8, and the X. (This is 2 not one, but 2 new phones at the same and higher retail costs, average profits per unit (8 & X) and much higher Contract/Retail pricing on the X. So why ONLY the $101US difference in ASP IF the iPhone X is selling a LOT more that Apple is making us all believe it to be? I call PURE BS!!!

PS: prices are from Bloomberg.com on ASP.

And Apple also has a couple past phones at $100 cheaper. And Tim Cook said that the iPhone X outsold the 8s every week they were on sale. Do you think Cook would risk (even more) lawsuits and possible jail time by spouting "PURE BS" like you're claiming?
 
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Apple usually has a divided increase in the 2nd Quarter, wonder if its going to be a larger than usual one :)
 
How is this even possible?

On the iPhone X:
  • It's way too expensive at $1,000. Nobody will pay that much.
  • FaceID is useless, bring back TouchID.
  • That notch. Not only ugly but interferes with all my content and videos.
  • Glass back? I don't want a fragile phone.
On the iPhone 8:
  • Not enough of an upgrade from the iPhone 7.
  • They still kept the same basic design? Lame.
On Macs:
  • Still no Mac Mini updates? People are waiting.
  • iMac Pro? I can build a machine for 1/2 the price that's 3x as fast.
  • Still only 16GB on the MBP? I require 32GB to be productive.

So my question for all the naysayers and analysts is this. How does it feel to be wrong? Not just wrong, but utterly and spectacularly wrong?

It's not. They are lying.
Shall I add sarcastic smile?
Here we go ;)

Oh, by the way you forgot yo add Still no 3.5mm headphone jack
 
And Apple also has a couple past phones at $100 cheaper. And Tim Cook said that the iPhone X outsold the 8s every week they were on sale. Do you think Cook would risk (even more) lawsuits and possible jail time by spouting "PURE BS" like you're claiming?

I don't see why not?
- currently over 24 lawsuits of possible coersion of throttle to lead into more sales; Q1 results and statements doesn't help this cause. Now the US DOJ is investigating. This aint no joke.
- the key is Apple always underscores estimates and always beats them since 1997. Since there is no specific breakdown of each and every product line ... only 3rd party analysis of models reported for web use (no isolation of location inside Apple or those separated from employees - 20K + of them), nobody would be able to actually call their bluff. So yeah he could risk it.

Therein lies the rub ... he can say anything without specifics which is like the pied piper leading mice ... nobody can resist the music. That's always been something I squint over but it's business genius. They said the same thing about the 7 sales ... or was it the 6S yet it didn't beat sales of the previous model. Now they don't even mention initial launch week/month numbers anymore as per 'policy' ... why not? Hmmm. That has to bother you somewhat.

recall that Apps destruction is the end of the world commercial? That's Apple actually making fun of it's users stating we have no lives and cannot survive without iOS/Watch Apps. Reminds me too much of that Lemmings commercial.

Do I love the company and what they stand for? Yes
Do I love the products and what they offer, and their warranty and exemplary service (customer, retail, or support)? Hell yes.
Do I believe everything they say? No ... nor should anyone. I like pure statistical data, and Apple is hiding the nitty gritty.

Apple's success is good. I hope there is more to come and I'd like to see much better iPhones, more powerful features in iOS and potentially finally The Navigator as a true mobile computer alternative it showed us back in the 80's feeler Apple video in what we see as the future of the iPad.
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Did you take algebra? As an exercise for the student, work out what percentage of 77M iPhones it would take for a $1k iPhone to raise the average from $700 to $800. It's not a small percentage or number, given that 5 other different models are also on the top selling list.

Yeah ...

I'd need to know each country all models sold in.
I'd need to know all the contractural pricing for each model in each country for Q1.
I'd need to know the number of units for each model sold at full retail, their price, in each country for Q1.
I'd need to know if those early iPhone X models that where stolen the first week were factored into the shipped model number or not (just in case).

any other data that I'd need? It's been a while.

PS: The ASP rose $101 from $695 to $796, Q1 2017 to Q1 2018,
 
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