The sheer number of app stores doesn't mean
anything; what presents concern to regulators is market share and whether a dominant position is being abused. I could put up a page on my website and call it an (empty) app store today, adding yet another "app store" to the list of 300+, but that doesn't mean it's of any market significance. Specifically of concern to U.S. regulators is the market share of the App Store and Play Store combined under their jurisdiction, and these two make up essentially all significant mobile spending in the U.S., which will warrant scrutiny.
It's arguable whether the App Store and Play Store are actually competing against each other because iOS apps and Android apps, even when a company offers both (and
very many don't!), are separate products requiring separate development, maintenance, and even marketing. It's not like two drugstores competing to sell you the same bottle of Tylenol by any stretch. The problems for Apple which warrant the scrutiny they now receive have two prongs: You can only obtain iOS apps from Apple (except in some edge cases like jailbreaking and B2B, again not of market significance), and Apple competes in its own market (with offerings like Apple Music, Apple Arcade, Apple TV+, and so on). Inevitably, this combination will lead to cases where it can be argued that Apple is tipping the scales in its own favor as the sole distributor of iOS apps.
As I've said here many times before, Apple would
vastly prefer to sort this out themselves with an arrangement that both they and the developer community at large can genuinely accept, instead of having the government do it for them. Eventually, as things stand, they'll go just a bit too far and the hammer will come down in a way that's far less preferable to, say, some combination of:
- Apple retains its position as the sole distributor of iOS apps.
- The annual cost of the Apple Developer Program is converted to a graduated model to potentially increase based on the previous year's app downloads; massive companies would pay much more than a measly $99/yr. The first year would remain $99 for all developers.
- Apps can offer their own in-app payment system only in conjunction with IAP; they cannot discourage the use of IAP.
- Independent arbitration is allowed for app rejections that are irreconcilable through current app review policies.
- The App Store commission is reduced to 15% for all IAP transactions, maybe paid apps too.