I hope that Apple and Disney join forces now that they have pulled from Netflix. Exclusive First watches on new movies before or during a movie being in the theater plus the Disney catalog
I see what's in it for viewers and Apple. What's in it for Disney?
Note: back in 2012 when the Netflix Disney deal was struck, there was belief that Netflix had agreed to pay about $300 MILLION per year for that deal. If true, fast forward to 2017 and obviously whatever was the actual amount is no longer enough for Disney. So how much does Apple need to pay to strike this deal?
Note2: the Netflix deal did not include getting to see new movies before and during their theatrical runs, so how much
more does Apple pay for that option too?
Disney is looking to start it's own service. And why not? They do have highly desirable content and a very deep catalog. What's potentially in it for them? Looking at a niche service as a proxy: WWE "channel" recently announced they were nearly 2 million subscribers deep. A subscription there can cost between $10 and $13/month depending on if one is willing to commit to more than a month-to-month engagement. 2 million subscribers times- say- $11.50 = $23 Million/month = $276 Million/yr. WWE is not sharing that revenue with an entity like Netflix. Instead, it's their own.
Can a Disney offering draw more business than a niche offering like WWE? That seems likely. Is about $11.50 out of line for a Disney offering? No- personally, I suspect Disney will price it at about HBO levels, or about $15/month.
How many subscribers can Disney draw? Looking at the rumored Netflix number of $300M, $300M/($15*12) = approx. 1,667,000 subscribers. In short, to make the $300M at $15/month, Disney needs to acquire about 1.7M subscribers. And if they do that, the $300M Netflix was giving them is replaced AND they have full control of their programming and all the benefits of a relatively captive base.
If a Disney offering can match WWE in terms of number of paying subscribers, about 2M subscribers at about $15/month = $360M/yr in revenues.
If I'm Disney, I expect to do considerably better than the niche reach of WWE, so I project larger volumes of probable subscribers:
- 3M (subscribers) = $540M/yr
- 4M = $720M/yr
- 5M = $900M/yr
So how much does an Apple (or other) need to cough up to motivate Disney to do a Disney-Netflix exclusive deal instead of Disney doing it themselves? If I'm Disney, the success of others is highly encouraging me to roll my own service. Of course money
does talk, so does someone like Apple show up and offer me enough money to delay these aspirations a few more years? For example, if I believe I see a billion-dollar opportunity, will Apple pay me more than that billion to motivate me to put off rolling my own for now? Apparently Netflix was not willing to pay up for whatever Disney wanted to persist the existing deal. Apple certainly has the money... but the question is: will Apple pay up for content like this?
Based on history, the answer is probably no. There has been numorous opportunities in recent years for Apple to spend some of it's mountain of cash on a variety of desirable programming: Time Warner (which included Warner Bros), NFL Sunday ticket, NFL Thursday Night football, etc. And time after time, the rumors were that Apple didn't even bid. So would they even bid for an Apple Disney deal?