Ever, in the history of publicly traded companies? I think it would have to eclipse what PetroChina once hit, $1 trillion, although its hard to find good info on foreign exchanges. To reach $1 trillion, APPL would have to be about $1072 per share.
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Apple Share Price Breaches $500, Hits All-Time High
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Ever, in the history of publicly traded companies? I think it would have to eclipse what PetroChina once hit, $1 trillion, although its hard to find good info on foreign exchanges. To reach $1 trillion, APPL would have to be about $1072 per share.
so in other words, the massive % gains over the years with apple are over so invest accordingly
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
Who's to say the massive percent gains won't continue?
It's worth noting that the PetroChina number of $1 trillion was the result, as far as I can tell, of an IPO in the Shanghai stock exchange in 2007. (They had been, and continue to be, traded in Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges as well.) Not exactly the time for the most rational of investment decisions.
Funny how psychology and superstition are such powerful factors in the stock market. Analysts try so hard to be smarter than anyone else, yet they are all subject to exaggerated positive reinforcement and confirmation bias.
As in "Yeah, the dot-com bubble burned me so bad that I'm wary of all tech stocks now. Including Apple." Or "See? I told you to dump your tech stocks. Just look at RIMM. AAPL will follow them down."
That's why the "psychological figure" is a real phenomenon.
The gains seen from buying a share from when it was 40 a few years back to now over 500 = >1000% gain
You will not see a 1000% gain from its current price. All I am saying
This story both depresses me and makes me feel a bit better; because maybe I'm not the only fool that passed up a great opportunity when I saw it. Do I miss it? No, I never had it. Do I wish I did? You'd better believe it. The next time I believe a company is going to do me some good, I'm going to act on it. Will that ever come close to the faith I have in Apple? Probably not. Will I ever act on a large stock purchase with another company? Probably not. In the end, I feel better knowing what my cash flow would be. If I had put $10,000 in Apple, I can guarantee I would have wasted countless hours obsessing over the market and turning my hair grey. I don't feel guilty, I don't think about the what-ifs, but I do wonder about the what-could-have-been.
I wonder how Edward Zabitsky is feeling today.
http://wallstreetpit.com/26718-edward-zabitsky-recommends-selling-apple-aapl-short-126-target
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/01/25/an-apple-bear-sticks-to-his-270-price-target/
I read this idiot's analysis and his previous advice to sell AAPL short over the years. So far that "sell short" advice is not working out for him. The major flaws in his reasoning....
1) An "on-par" expérience does not win customers over. You must deliver a superior experience for the same price or an equivalent experience for a better price to get people to switch from what they know. So far iPad is the best-value tablet around, so if price is equal then the experience must be superior.
2) Android 4.0 is on-par with iOS 5 with the glaring exception of software ecosystem and accessory ecosystem for Android devices. You cannot ignore these exceptions and focus solely on the operating system mechanics. These same exceptions are what held the Mac back from Windows for so long.
3) Android 4.0 is available on so few devices at the moment (only 1% adoption among Android devices). This means that very few people know somebody who has an Android 4.0 device for them to ooh and ahh over.... this means less buzz. By the time most folks see Ice Cream Sandwich, iOS 6 will have been released and the Android community will be busy talking about Android 5.0 which will of course be "coming soon to a Nexus device" and "coming much later to other devices".
4) Apple still has the best HTML-5 experience of any device with the best support. So as we move to faster networks Apple devices will leverage iCloud more and have better access to web-based apps via Safari.
5) Even if Google does well in the tablet space (which they have yet to do) or if Microsoft does well (which they likely will do with Windows 8 and Office), the market is growing extremely fast. This means that losing market percentage does NOT mean decreased sales. In a Post-PC tablet market that is five times as large as it is today, Apple could stand to go from 90% market share to 60% or 50% market share -- it still means they sold more iPads and made even more money which should mean great earnings and higher stock price.
The biggest thing being missed in the tablet space is there is a belief that this will remain a two-horse race. In all likelihood, Windows 8 with native office on a tablet will likely push Android tablets from the brink of obscurity and into oblivion. Once people get accustomed to Windows 8 tablets, then Windows Phone will begin to eat into Android sales even more. The Post-PC era is going to be a dog fight between Apple and Microsoft, each owning about half of the market. Google struggled to bring a decent tablet to the table for two years and has failed. Now their would-be customers are eyeing Windows 8 on the horizon and the time to grab mindshare has expired.
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$469 billion, huh? And yet I struggle just to pay my $175 phone bill every month. Sh'yeah...life's really fair :-(
$469 billion, huh? And yet I struggle just to pay my $175 phone bill every month. Sh'yeah...life's really fair :-(
So far as I can tell the Fortune article is incorrect. MSFT was never worth $642B! By Sept 2000 they had declined & were worth about half of that. I think Fortune missed a split or something. MSFT's peak valuation was the week of December 20, 1999 when the price was $58.72 (split adjusted), or $493B -- Below AAPL's value today.
That assumes the number of shares outstanding has been constant, which may not be the case. I know you'll correct me if I'm wrong. Anyway, I sold my MSFT stock around then and am happy I did.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
That assumes the number of shares outstanding has been constant, which may not be the case. I know you'll correct me if I'm wrong
. Anyway, I sold my MSFT stock around then and am happy I did.http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
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This story both depresses me and makes me feel a bit better; because maybe I'm not the only fool that passed up a great opportunity when I saw it. Do I miss it? No, I never had it. Do I wish I did? You'd better believe it. The next time I believe a company is going to do me some good, I'm going to act on it. Will that ever come close to the faith I have in Apple? Probably not. Will I ever act on a large stock purchase with another company? Probably not. In the end, I feel better knowing what my cash flow would be. If I had put $10,000 in Apple, I can guarantee I would have wasted countless hours obsessing over the market and turning my hair grey. I don't feel guilty, I don't think about the what-ifs, but I do wonder about the what-could-have-been.
I know we all feel bad looking at hindsight but hindsight is always clearer. I first encountered AAPL when it was 10 dollars, before APPL came back alive. I had bought it around 10 and sold it a couple dollars up. Then bought it again at 50 dollars (this was all back during 1999/2000). that stock then sunk from 50 to 25 dollars due to weak quarter projections. The 23-25/stock remained for a period of approx. 3 years....I sold it at $23, 3 years later and never looked at it again. Hindsight tells me that WTF have I done...but in reality, even if I kept it, there was NO WAY I would have kept it till 500 or 400 or even 300 or 200. Maybe if we all knew the outcomes and took a time machine back, sure. But how many people would have held on to a stock thinking oh, it'll jump 50,000% in 13 yrs with a company on the brink of chapt 11.
Back in 2003 or so it was around $6-$8. I was in high school. I was a huge Apple fan/geek back then when everyone else around me made fun of me for using Macs. I remember wanting to buy some AAPL but just didn't know enough about how stocks worked.
Back then I worked weekends and after school... I bought a 1) car, 2) video camera 3) iMac 4) Cell phone (and paid the plan each month), 5) clothes .....the list goes on and on...
If I would have just taken $2000 of that money and held it, I would have nearly $150k right now. Now that I'm approaching 25 years old, that would be a great down payment for a house, payoff for student loans, car...etc.
Kicking myself.....but who would have known.
Back then I worked weekends and after school... I bought a 1) car, 2) video camera 3) iMac 4) Cell phone (and paid the plan each month), 5) clothes .....the list goes on and on...
If I would have just taken $2000 of that money and held it, I would have nearly $150k right now. Now that I'm approaching 25 years old, that would be a great down payment for a house, payoff for student loans, car...etc.
Kicking myself.....but who would have known.
Yowsers. In 2006 just as Apple went intel, I told my friend who was looking to buy a ton of stocsk in something to buy Apple shares. He said that they were too expensive. They were $66!
Everyone has stories about how they executed brilliantly when buying a winning stock. The losers like GM never get mentioned. You get big winners and big losers, but in the end, you'll wind up with an average market return overall.
If you own a big mutual fund, you probably own shares of AAPL, so take comfort in that.
If you own a big mutual fund, you probably own shares of AAPL, so take comfort in that.
aapl*
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It's fun to read the old thread when AAPL went through the $200 barrier: https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/806711/
or when it reached $250: https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/898506/.
I predict the discussions will sound exactly the same today.
Looking very toppy right here. A pullback to 450 is very likely, and 425/430 is where I would be looking to buy
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Lol common mistake. You cant base how expensive a stock is by its stock price.
For example, if PEP (PepsiCo) is trading at say $50, and KO (Coke Inc) is trading at $100, you cant say KO is TWICE as expensive as Pepsi.
(Also, some stocks split, like MSFT (microsoft). Its trading at 30, but when you account for all the splits, its over 1000 easy)
You have to look at the PE ratio (Price/Earnings) when determining how expensive a stock is.
Remember, when you invest in a stock, you are investing in FUTURE EARNINGS of the company, NOT current/previous earnings.
Look at this:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=aapl
AAPL's PE ratio is a mind boggling 10!! Which is EXTREMELY cheap for such a high growth tech stock.
Apple is a great company and AAPL is a great stock, but the recent move has been parabolic. Such a move cant be sustained with a beast like AAPL, and it will test previous support levels. From what I can see, 450 and 425 are great supports, then 380, and 350.
With uncertainties from europe, I wouldnt be surprised to see the stock trading at around 425 around April
I don't doubt a pullback, but I don't think it will be 10% at this point. Maybe 5
As to the rest of what you stated. Well, everyone is entitled to an opinion.
those trading based on p/e get burnt too. I also don't see that much of a sell off based on future earnings and demand.
Appl will drop, obviously, but I don't see it losing 20% in a couple months. Let's revisit come April. After the iPad 3 has been selling out for weeks and with new MacBooks on the horizon...then again in summer with the iPhone five.
The thing is...it's all up in the air...opinion, performance, analysts.
With price targets set where they are, a sell off may come at $600 but not yet...too many people with money to control will use it another 20%
But again, that's my opinion. It's all we have.
As to the rest of what you stated. Well, everyone is entitled to an opinion.
those trading based on p/e get burnt too. I also don't see that much of a sell off based on future earnings and demand.
Appl will drop, obviously, but I don't see it losing 20% in a couple months. Let's revisit come April. After the iPad 3 has been selling out for weeks and with new MacBooks on the horizon...then again in summer with the iPhone five.
The thing is...it's all up in the air...opinion, performance, analysts.
With price targets set where they are, a sell off may come at $600 but not yet...too many people with money to control will use it another 20%
But again, that's my opinion. It's all we have.
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Yup, lets revisit in April.
Long term, this company is excellent. Short term, I see too many headwinds.
iPad 3 is priced already, an announcement and release subsequently, will not affect the stock price. If anything we might see sell on the news.
Im calling for a 15% pullback before April. ($435)
What will affect is sales figures. And before April we will see another reporting right?
Anyway. I have my personal sell number. I think those selling now thinking they can get back in a few months for 15% less will be disappointed.
I don't actually agree on the long term. Well depending how one defines long term. I think apple will yield excellent for about two more years, big growth. At that point I believe they will stagnate.
I have owned apple at three points now, so far things have gone well, hopefully the upward trend continues.
As far as long long term...oracle is really cheap right now.
Anyway. I have my personal sell number. I think those selling now thinking they can get back in a few months for 15% less will be disappointed.
I don't actually agree on the long term. Well depending how one defines long term. I think apple will yield excellent for about two more years, big growth. At that point I believe they will stagnate.
I have owned apple at three points now, so far things have gone well, hopefully the upward trend continues.
As far as long long term...oracle is really cheap right now.
Long term to me 5 years. My time frame is usually 2-3 weeks when I trade. I trade options more than stocks, so thats why my time frame is so short.
Next earnings comes in april, usually the 3rd week. Of course, no one knows how the price will act after earnings, since thats the single biggest catalyst for a price movement.
We shall see though, Im rooting for AAPL share/option holders, but I just dont see the stock moving up without a pullback to test support levels. Im sure you know as an investor, but, remember, pullbacks are healthy for stocks.
Yah, absolutely. It is healthy. I don't disagree with the premise, I just don't think we're at the level yet.
Anyway I'm not worried at present.
I stated earlier in the thread, I think the big threat right now are expectations of a game changing tv appliance. I don't think that will arrive and I think the stock will suffer.
I'm long on bilgari holdings right now as well. Which has performed wildly.
Anyway I'm not worried at present.
I stated earlier in the thread, I think the big threat right now are expectations of a game changing tv appliance. I don't think that will arrive and I think the stock will suffer.
I'm long on bilgari holdings right now as well. Which has performed wildly.
If you bet that way you will virtually always bet wrong. Even the most seasoned, experienced and educated stock traders can't pick and time stocks well enough to beat the S&P 500 over time, including the vast majority of the people who are paid huge salaries to manage mutual funds and pension fund portfolios.
I count myself as very fortunate to have taken a bet on AAPL in 1997, when I first bought in, for averting my eyes from stock inflation and deflation on a short term basis, and sticking with my instinct about whether the company remained in a fundamentally good position to grow earnings. Had I been trading instead of investing, I'd have sold at a bad time and not made the absurd amount of money that I have on AAPL.
iPad3 built in to stock price
Apple stock is reflecting the anticipation of iPad3 announcement. Smart money has been piling in for some time now. The stock might pull back, regain this level and stay that level for some time before the next leg up. I see a lot more potential left. I aspire to one day have an iPhone on T-mobile (current Samsung Galaxy S2 user) but as an iPad user, I realize their products are built to perfection. My 88 year father-in-law who has never used a computer started using an iPad a month back and though partially blind, can't let go of his iPad. He uses, music, CNN, BBC and the lot. I think the best days of Apple are yet to come. I travel extensively on business overseas and realize that Apple products are highly sought after and as incomes rise in the emerging countries more and more people will buy an iPad. iPhone may take longer because in many of these countries 3G is not widely available and the wireless phone market has a different business model where individuals buy the phone and seek a wireless company. So the opportunity for wireless companies to subsidize the phone and recover through higher monthly costs does not exist.
Apple stock is reflecting the anticipation of iPad3 announcement. Smart money has been piling in for some time now. The stock might pull back, regain this level and stay that level for some time before the next leg up. I see a lot more potential left. I aspire to one day have an iPhone on T-mobile (current Samsung Galaxy S2 user) but as an iPad user, I realize their products are built to perfection. My 88 year father-in-law who has never used a computer started using an iPad a month back and though partially blind, can't let go of his iPad. He uses, music, CNN, BBC and the lot. I think the best days of Apple are yet to come. I travel extensively on business overseas and realize that Apple products are highly sought after and as incomes rise in the emerging countries more and more people will buy an iPad. iPhone may take longer because in many of these countries 3G is not widely available and the wireless phone market has a different business model where individuals buy the phone and seek a wireless company. So the opportunity for wireless companies to subsidize the phone and recover through higher monthly costs does not exist.
Only if you are very, very lucky. It's far more likely that your return will be far less than the broader market indexes. Treat the stock market like a casino if you like but keep in mind that in a casino the house always wins.
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Thanks, I haven't seen me around for a long time either.
I agree, which is why I don't use one or two stocks as an entire strategy. When I enter into a large (for me) trade I do so with familiar products. But there's an underlying reason for the long term diversified investments and the shorter term ones.
Trading is good in addition to investing. Or can be,.it just depends. Many people invested in Cisco and lost nearly everything....at the time it was a good investment. They just stayed in...trading would have made a bundle.
As mentioned a couple of posts up...emerging markets are huge for apple.
The idea that one would invest in a company today and not reevaluate it in ongoing fashion is ridiculous. If everyone who isn't in a stock for twenty years is a trader...well there aren't many investors.
I'm in apple as long as the company and valuation look sound to me. If I think the stock is massively overvalued I'll sell and renter when it's not. I the company makes decisions I think are bad, I'm not sticking around ten more years.
That's not short term investing, it's common sense.
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Interesting Fact
With Apple shares breaking $500 today it means I can trade my house for about 400 shares. Meanwhile, 400 shares of Microsoft can buy my fridge.
With Apple shares breaking $500 today it means I can trade my house for about 400 shares. Meanwhile, 400 shares of Microsoft can buy my fridge.