iPhone applications ... no money in that.
End result will be some decent corporate and media apps by big players but I am having a hard time believing that any small or independent developer will make living developing for iPhone.
I realize many people probably disagree with you and part of me disagrees with you as well. But, as a hobbyist shareware author myself and a long time software developer (started on a c64), I've definitely seen a huge shift in the shareware industry.
A lot of areas that used to be served by shareware are now served (for free) by any number of guys
for free. Want to produce a photo gallery? See Flickr, Picasa, etc. Want to mange your digital music collection? Meet iTunes. Want a homepage or a blog? Pick one. Dictionary? Encyclopedia? Maps of your neighborhood or the world? Map of the night sky? People no longer care that they don't own their own content, they are just content to have someone host it and throw a few ads in to pay for it.
All these guys will presumably provide their own iPhone apps. As one example, Flickr will have an app that makes it easy to upload pics from the iPhone. They'll likely be geotagged and Flickr already has a .kml feed for Google Earth. So yes, we'll see free iPhone apps from guys like Google, MyFace, SpaceBook, Yahoo, Flickr... and a whole host of other Web 2.0 giants.
The best bet might be games- I think there is a market here. But, game development is sometimes best done by larger software outfits. Not to say that one guy can't produce a fancy, advanced game, but it is a lot more work than writing an email client or calendar. And for me, there is a huge risk in spending months to write an app that Apple may not see fit to include in their library. If this happens, you are at a dead end. There is no other distribution channel.
knows that it's inevitable that there will be some crap coming out of the SDK. But if they let too much crap come out RIGHT AWAY, then everyone will think of iPhone Apps as crap. 
