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Apple Stock Forecasted to Rise as Lifetime iPhone Sales Reach 1 Billion
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Just remember Sept 2012 before the split, AAPL at 700$ and experts pointing towards a 1000$ target and see what happened in reality.
People like TV, but that doesn't stop them from PVR'ing everything and skipping over commercials. All it takes is some new startup to come up with an ad blocker that actually works (and doesn't sell out to advertisers and make a white list). This would be a great thing as we'd lose so many of the garbage sites that exist solely to drive traffic and generate revenue from ads/clicks (instead of generating revenue from creating valuable content).
Or someone could come up with a micro-transaction model for viewing sites without ads. I could (for example) pay $50 a year and for that I could visit millions of sites ad free. No more ads, and sites still get paid when people visit them. This would do away with the need for sites to offer individual subscriptions (as so many do).
There are many ways Google could find their ad revenues nosedive.
The facts is that they're not declining; they're actually way up.
The larger screens of the iPhone 6 and 6+ were delayed to such an extent that the demand for that product must be seen as a blip.
The trend line traced from iPhone 5S to 6S is a very healty one.
In fact, P/E was completely out of industry average (much lower) even at the $130 peak, with surging revenues and earnings.
I'll wait until I see some real numbers and refrain from speculation. Depending on whose numbers and/or percentages are used, the actual numbers could be just about anything.
The fact is the decline is in earnings and revenue for last quarter and this quarter, year over year. Markets don't see this a blip. The see them as realities, which they are.
PE is a trailing indicator based on the last four quarters of earnings versus the current price and is an indicator of market sentiment with respect to future growth. A company with negative revenue and earnings growth can be expected to sell for low multiples. If you are going to cite PE, it helps to know what it means.
I used the 1.4 billion figure that YOU provided. If you have some other numbers, I'd be glad to see them. Or do you take back the figure you quoted?
So its looking like smartphones in existance-
• 400m iPhones (approx)
• 1.4B android
Total 1.8B
World population 7.4B
about 1 in 4 of the World population own a smartphone.
• 400m iPhones (approx)
• 1.4B android
Total 1.8B
World population 7.4B
about 1 in 4 of the World population own a smartphone.
And so? Nobody cares about how many phones you sold. I mean Samsung has sold billions of phones in the same time period, doesn't mean their company is worth more.
Investors impressed at a company that crosses some arbitrary milestone, but fails to realize that iPhone sales have tanked in the past year is what is wrong with the stock market today. Everybody is impressed with fantasy, but facts does not factor into the real value of a company.
This company is simply not offering us a taste of what is next for them. Auto rumors are forecasting something in 2021, in the meantime all Apple has to rely on is iPhone sales, which are slipping and the iPhone 7 appears to be another dud model of mild upgrades over the previous generation which consumers are already very bored of. In addition every other product sector Apple is in is in decline, even Samsung's smartwatch market is in a growth stage while Apple's is in decline.
This company is slipping down the slope of mediocrity very quickly, unless there are some spectacular product rollouts in the next year, I think investors are eventually going to catch up to the reality that Apple is a pale imitation of what it once was.
Investors impressed at a company that crosses some arbitrary milestone, but fails to realize that iPhone sales have tanked in the past year is what is wrong with the stock market today. Everybody is impressed with fantasy, but facts does not factor into the real value of a company.
This company is simply not offering us a taste of what is next for them. Auto rumors are forecasting something in 2021, in the meantime all Apple has to rely on is iPhone sales, which are slipping and the iPhone 7 appears to be another dud model of mild upgrades over the previous generation which consumers are already very bored of. In addition every other product sector Apple is in is in decline, even Samsung's smartwatch market is in a growth stage while Apple's is in decline.
This company is slipping down the slope of mediocrity very quickly, unless there are some spectacular product rollouts in the next year, I think investors are eventually going to catch up to the reality that Apple is a pale imitation of what it once was.
OK genius, then explain why before the iPhone 6, with all indicators pointing to a staggering success, Apple's P/E was still trailing industry average by almost 10 points. By your logic, it should have EXCEEDED it.
The answer is that market was indeed expecting a blip. As a result, today's valuation is unrealistically low (as I said earlier, it assumes Apple would shrink 95% in 10 years). In the long run, stock price will reflect the (very healthy) fundamentals, though.
The fallacy is in how this chat is being interpreted. This is 1 billion total iphone sales, Apple is not selling 1 billion phones in 2016. Apple also has a pretty signfiicant incestual market where they only sell new phones to existing users so even out of 1 billion phones sold in total since 2007 their market growth has not actually surpassed 15% of the total market of customers because they haven't had 1 billion unique subscriptions, only continuously selling new phones to existing customers over and over again.
That 400 million number is way too low. The last 3 years Apple has sold 590 million iPhones, and it's safe to say that those would all still be in use.
The original question was about iPhones in use now. Until we don't know this figure, all the anti-Android speculations are only sci-fi
Nice approach. To start, Apple is obviously more than just the iPhone 6, and no, the markets were not expecting just a blip. The market high and the run-up that led to it was based on optimism that earnings would continue to increase at a modest rate. Again remember PE is based on the four past quarters of earnings combined versus the current stock price. Once the forecasts began to surface that decreased earnings were more likely over the next quarter or more, the stock fell and PE compressed, just as any experienced investor would expect them to do. The current valuation by no means is a predication that Apple would shrink 95% in ten years. That's a preposterous interpretation. The low PE is a reflection of market sentiment of little growth in earnings and revenue over the next quarter or two.
I don't make any claims to know whether any valuation is high or low, probably because I know I am not smarter than the combined wisdom of the markets. You are obviously much cleverer than I.
Yes, because revenue of ~$42 billion, and ~$13 billion net profit for a freaking quarter is so bad.
No, the fallacy is in how Android numbers and market share are reported. They look at sales for a single quarter where there would be about 85% Android to 15% iOS devices sold. They then incorrectly assume this also translates into actual market share of devices IN USE. This would only be true if every Android device sold represented a unique user, and wasn't a device sold to replace a lost, stolen or damaged device.
Considering the majority of Android phones sold are low end junk, then it's not very likely at all that all these phones being sold represent unique users. They are simply people buying another disposable phone to replace their existing one. If you add up Android phone sales over the years it's in the billions (3 billion in the last 3 years alone). There's no way you can claim there are 3 billion individual Android users from 3 billion sales.
As to selling iPhones to existing customers, that is 100% false. The sheer rise in the number of individual iTunes accounts counters the idea that Apple is only selling to existing customers (last time Apple reported this it went from 500 to 800 million in a year and a half).
You are in for a disappointment of epic dimensions.
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Of course it isn't bad. It is ****ing amazing. Every other company would die for this. That said you don't seem to understand that the FUTURE is traded at the stock market – and where to go from here. Apple's sales are shrinking and missing growth is the worst thing which can happen to the stock price, even if they stay incredible successful in absolute terms.
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If I had one dollar for every time people in forums told me "you're in for a epic disappointment in Apple stock", I would have a lot of money.
Wait: I actually do have a lot of money as I did not listen!
Look, I know past performance is not a good or reliable indicator of the future, but an investor should a) do the homework b) follow his gut feeling and not the sheeps.
If you are "long term" where is the up part of the "rickety ride up" you referenced? We are basically where we were 4 years ago
I bet one could swim in that much amount of money!
Also, I don't really know how to swim, but I'd happily die drowning in money.. lol
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u have some serious issues..
This is what I've learned in 30+ years of investing, including nearly 20 years in AAPL:
a) The moment you think you are not one of the sheep, you are following the pack.
b) You are not smarter than the markets, and whenever you think you are, you have proven it.
c) Never confuse luck with with special knowledge. You may well have the former, but you will never have the latter.
Believe me, I'm not one of those guys shouting "Apple is doomed!" since many years. I wasn't one of those guys claiming the second Steve Jobs died that this will be the downfall of Apple. I kept neutral and observed. I finally lost faith in Apple's future - stock-holder wise - only one year ago and sold my stocks then (which I owned since 2006). So far it was the right decision. Apple will stay a very successful company for a long time to come. However, the profits will shrink and I dare to predict that we will never see its All-Time-High again.