The stock is nearing a top. Sure it may go up a bit more from here but at this point the upside/downside risks are so skewed to the downside one has to wonder whether it's worth holding on for another last pop.
When companies like AAPL reach the size they are currently at you invariably see the company start to stumble. Not only in terms of operations but in terms of meeting the expectations of investors. Remember, this is a company that makes consumer electronics. That it is worth nearly $300bn is simply astounding.
What's going to pop the bubble? Competition. Apple dominated the music space with the iPod because there were no credible competitors. They have dominated the smartphone segment over the last 3+ years but it is here that I think competition has caught up with Apple. Yes, the iPhone is still "the best" out there and is more polished than others but Android's OS has largely caught up and for more and more people Android is a more attractive option given the ability to do customization.
The iPad was a "revolutionary" device and remains so but given how far Android has advanced it's just a matter of time (months) until credible competitors to the iPad come along.
Apple's entire business model has been of one of strong innovation with little or no competition. This provided them a platform for Lord Steve to control his consumers by blessing the minions with a few new features every year, giving just enough new features to compel the consumer to upgrade their device but not enough so that they can pull the same stunt on them a year later. It works great when there is no other alternative out there, but with Android coming on strong I think that throws a major wrench into the way Apple has conducted business the last 10 years, particularly the iPhone and iPad which are the two growth drivers.
Having an iPhone or iPad has become the cultural "cool" thing to do in our society at this point in time. That is the exact moment that momentum starts to slow because at this precise time more savvy users are ditching the iPhone for Android devices, which they can do more with. Eventually the "cool" people won't be carrying the exact same black iPhone that millions of others have but other devices. And when you are "forced" to upgrade your device for $300/year just to be able to create app folders and multitask the value proposition of the iPhone and probably the iPad diminishes, particularly when you see multiple device manufacturers and an army of Android developers pushing the potential of Android forward.
This is just one person's view and it's entirely possible that AAPL goes to $400 but I think the game has changed and the stock's current valuation and high levels of expectations (48 analyst buy recommendations, 3 holds, 0 sells) means AAPL pretty much needs to create time travel to really keep the momentum going.
