Not fishing
Apple's foray into the tablet market will be distinctly different than Microsoft's in one fundamental way (and lots of smaller ways):
An iPad is targeted to be a secondary computer.
In every step of the iBook and Powerbook's evolution, Apple has tried to make the notebook a possible desktop replacement. In the case of the iPad, Apple will be looking to increase its sales (and, incidentally, create a more useful product) by designing a tablet that is a Mac through and through, but which has several compromises which, while not having a large impact on its role as a casual tablet, would prevent it from being a desktop or notebook replacement.
First off, there's naturally no chance that it would have an included keyboard. The thing would have zero moving parts except for a few hardware buttons (power switch, reset pinhole).
It won't have any sort of media drive. No CD-ROM, no combo drive, etc.
It will come with Airport and Bluetooth built in.
It will be designed to never need to be opened by the user.
It will have no hard edges.
By the time it comes out, it will be the only device Apple sells with a G3 processor.
It will have USB; it will have Firewire (one port each).
The basic positioning of the product will be as a desktop adjunct. With easy wireless networking and seamless rendezvous filesharing, it's the thing you can pick up when you have to go to a meeting down the hall or across campus, and still have access to the full data on your desktop (or powerbook, what have you).
Even more, it can be anonymous. If you have a meeting, borrow one of the office's iPads, log in as you, and it gets your computing environment from your primary machine.
As for price, once you remove the keyboard, trackpad, and optical drive, and replace a two-part hinged enclosure with a single solid structure, you've saved enough in production costs that you can add a wacom digitizer to the mix and still come out cheaper (and 2 lbs lighter) than the entry-level iBook.
Okay, now a word about digitizers: A true touch screen would be hard for a few reasons. First, they get damaged easily. You can't put a whole lot of protection into a screen and still have it function as a touchscreen with an LCD display behind it. Second, pressure sensitivity is less precise with a touchscreen, especially when using a stylus, where the actual pressure on the tip of the nub is very, very high, and is much better read by the stylus itself than the surface of the screen. Considering that a primary market for an iPad would be the creative market, lusting for a cheaper and more portable Cintiq (
http://www.wacom.com/lcdtablets/index.cfm), 256 (or 512) levels of pressure sensitivity is mandatory.
The nice thing about Wacom's tablets (as those who own them know) is that the circuitry of the tablet can be as much as a half-inch away from the surface of the pen and still have it work. This makes it a prime choice for the iPad for two reasons:
First: It means that the Mac OS doesn't have to be substantially changed to handle applications that, for one reason or another, often rely on mouse position, even when the button isn't being pressed. With another tablet, pen (or finger) would have to touch screen for the OS to know where the cursor is, and they have to have a clunky way (double-tap, stylus button, or 'press harder') to represent a click or click-drag instead of just a drag. With the Wacom, a pen a half-inch above the digitizer still registers, so you can use the cursor, even if you're using it just to point, and not to click.
Second: That circuitry can live *behind* the LCD. This lets the LCD be right up in your face, with a hard-as-you-please protective covering, because the EM field that the tablet uses to find the location and state of the stylus isn't affected by the screen plastics (or glass).
If you have a Graphire, take a look at it. Notice the transparent flap covering the tablet. That could just as easily be made clear instead of frosted, and now your iPad is scratchproof, with a stylus surface that can be replaced at need. you never hear about people who've scratched their tablet.
Anyhow, we'll see how it all plays out, but considering the work that went on between Wacom and Apple to bring Inkwell into play, there's virtually no chance that Apple *isn't* working on a pen-based Mac. My guess is that we'll see fruits of this labor right around May of next year, after the iBooks bump up to G4s.
While the rest of the above post is all speculation, it makes sense to me. Certain as the sun will rise tomorrow, people posting after me will blithly talk about how it won't sell because it's underpowered, too expensive, or useless, to which I reply pbbth. As computers become less and less expensive, there will naturally be a point where a second, task-specific computer will become feasible in more than a Palm or PocketPC-sized fashion. I simply believe that time is coming very soon.
and I'm very glad that Microsoft and Co didn't go the route of the ultralight inexpensive tablet. they're so busy trying to justify Windows licneses that any Windows computer has to be positioned as a desktop or notebook equivalent.
A consumer tablet should never be seen or positioned as a primary-computer equivalent. Either too heavy, too expensive, or too sparse on functionality, there's no way to do it. I hope Apple does what it does best, which is not to try and beat Microsoft at their own game.
Kevin Fox
http://fury.com