If everyone's favorite apps are gone, then all users will move to Android. Period. Yes, even the wealthy iOS users will move. Apps are everything.
The commodified apps don't hold power. No one cares if a smaller calculator app that does the same thing as 100 other apps move to Android-only.
The apps that can persuade Apple are the high powered ones like Netlix, Amazon, Spotify, etc. They can band together and force change.
But Apple is smart. If they could, they would force Facebook to give up 30% of the advertising revenue or get out. But of course, Apple won't do that. It bends the rules just for Facebook's business segment so Facebook doesn't become Android only.
Thus, Apple is making unfair rules.
Having access to the best apps is but one of many reasons for my preference of iOS. I will likely still stay (and perhaps reconsider going back to stock apps). It just means the developer loses me as a paying customer were he to move to android.
It also makes a pretty compelling argument for Apple to have their own services like music streaming, just like they created their own mapping service to replace their reliance on google maps. This way, if Spotify ever did decide to play punk and withhold their service from iOS (perhaps as part of negotiations for better terms), Apple could just tell them to F off because they have an equivalent alternative to prevent users from following Spotify to Android.
Lastly, I continue to stay by my initial assertion that Apple’s 30% revenue cut is not unjustified and personally, it’s a hill I am willing to die on.
Here’s my argument, summarised.
1) I suspect Apple is not making as much money from the App Store as people make it out to be. Revenue is one thing, profit is another once you deduct the hefty costs of hiring all the people to manage the store.
2) As mentioned, there are many forms of app monetisation that Apple does not get a cut of. They don’t get facebook ad revenue, they don’t get a share of Uber rides or food deliveries, and they don’t get a cut when I buy clothes from Zalora.
I think we can all agree that nobody is expecting that Apple run the App Store at a loss, and the $99 a year from developers don’t even come close to breaking even. As such, the only source of revenue they can get is from app sales and subscriptions. So those who can pay, should pay.
3) I don’t agree that Apple should open up iOS to competing app stores, because that would weaken the main selling point of iOS - security.
The rules don’t strike me as unfair, but they do appear to be quite inconsistently enforced. If anything, it just means that Apple ought to do the same to larger companies like Netflix and Spotify, rather than continue to make exceptions for other developers.