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Apple to Announce Earnings Today Following First Revenue Warning in 16 Years, End of Unit Sales Reporting

joeblow7777 said:
Props to you for being the first person who actually explained what the statement meant as opposed to others who just got very defensive and said things to effect of "it's your own fault for being too dumb to understand" whenever someone expressed confusion.
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Perhaps, these people should have asked why it was possible, so they could become educated.

It is really just basic percentage calculation.

Apple reduced revenue by $5 billions. If Greater China revenue is reduced by $6 billion, it would constitute 6/5 = 120% av the reduction of the revenue.
 
gim said:
A shortfall is a deficit. No factor can be responsible for more than the entire deficit (100%), even if they have made more money elsewhere to balance some of the revenue losses in China.

This isn't about math, it's the semantics that do not make any sense.
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It's always about math. Math is the purest form of logic. I'm not understanding what your issue is with the statement that Cook put out.

Apple revised guidance revenue by $5B. Apple estimated that China would have contributed over $5B more than it actually did. Therefore, ,more than 100% of the shortfall in revenue compared to guidance is due to China. Other regions exceeded what they had estimated back in November.

Had every other region met their expectations, then China would have been responsible for 100% of the shortfall.

NOTE - MR was full of these kinds of discussions back when Apple routinely accounted for more than 100% of the profits generated by the smartphone market. Yes, it is possible to have more than 100% of the profits of an industry when others post losses.


EDIT - @Carnegie was kind enough to point out my misinterpretation of Tim Cook's statement. The "more than 100%" comment was in reference to iPhone revenues in China from Q1-2018 to Q1-2019.
 
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BuddyTronic said:
I don’t think it matters about that, they could still make a really cool iPhone mini. Small screen but edge to edge. Really strong housing, waterproof, light and thin of course. Latest camera. Big price. Why not design and make it? Confusion of customers maybe? I like a bit bigger screen, but I can see that some people want the old SE form factor. I wonder if the make it a super mini iPhone with big price these fans will freak out? Do these same users want a cheap price too?
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Reminds me of this SNL bit about iPods getting smaller and smaller and then... the iPod Invisa!

 
Cosmosent said:
Off the Radar of just about everyone, but should NOT be.

NO ONE should be surprised if AAPL announces they are moving to Annual Guidance !

Cook's #1 priority is keeping his job, NOT making Shareholders happy, NOR AAPL's customers !

If AAPL announces "the move," I predict the share price will Quickly Tank to below $100/share !

NOT Rocket Science, it will signal Cook's AAPL is "Running for the Hills" !

It's just a matter of time before Cook is forced out by the AAPL Board ... may happen later this week ... should have happened years ago !

Cook's main limitation is He Lacks Basic Common Sense !
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And of course YOU could do SOOOOOO much better....

Riiiiight.
 
ftaok said:
It's always about math. Math is the purest form of logic. I'm not understanding what your issue is with the statement that Cook put out.

Apple revised guidance revenue by $5B. Apple estimated that China would have contributed over $5B more than it actually did. Therefore, ,more than 100% of the shortfall in revenue compared to guidance is due to China. Other regions exceeded what they had estimated back in November.

Had every other region met their expectations, then China would have been responsible for 100% of the shortfall.

NOTE - MR was full of these kinds of discussions back when Apple routinely accounted for more than 100% of the profits generated by the smartphone market. Yes, it is possible to have more than 100% of the profits of an industry when others post losses.
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To be clear, the "over 100 percent of" from Mr. Cook's letter related to the YoY revenue shortfall, not the guidance revision. According to the letter, sales of iPhones, Macs, and iPads in China accounted for more than 100% of Apple's decline in revenue from Q1 2018 to Q1 2019. So, if revenue for Q1 2019 is $84.000 billion, that's a YoY decline of $4.29 billion from the $88.293 billion it had in Q1 2018. So revenue from iPhones, Macs, and iPads in China would have fallen by more than $4.29 billion. (The total revenue decline for China might still have been less than that, as revenue from other categories for China might have grown.)

The letter also said that "most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance" came from sales of iPhones, Macs, and iPads in China.
 
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Carnegie said:
To be clear, the "over 100 percent of" from Mr. Cook's letter related to the YoY revenue shortfall, not the guidance revision. According to the letter, sales of iPhones, Macs, and iPads in China accounted for more than 100% of Apple's decline in revenue from Q1 2018 to Q1 2019. So, if revenue for Q1 2019 is $84.000 billion, that's a YoY decline of $4.29 billion from the $88.293 billion it had in Q1 2018. So revenue from iPhones, Macs, and iPads in China would have fallen by more than $4.29 billion. (The total revenue decline for China might still have been less than that, as revenue from other categories for China might have grown.)

The letter also said that "most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance" came from sales of iPhones, Macs, and iPads in China.
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You're right. I had read the first part of the statement, but misread the second part. My bad.

For posterity, here's the full quote.

TimCook said:
While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China. In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.
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Dominicanyor said:
Why does it matter what Apple :apple: earnings is to the public?
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Because Apple is a publicly owned company, that’s why. Aside from investors, it’s with-in Apples standing to advise where they are financially, which still offers investors/shareholders/Stockholders in AAPL, etc, provides insight as well in terms of expectations of sales and/or guidance from previous earnings. It’s all relative and necessary information in benchmarks.
 
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Dominicanyor said:
Why does it matter what Apple :apple: earnings is to the public?
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Much of the public is invested in AAPL stock. Either directly owning the stock, or indirectly through a mutual fund.

Plus, this is an Apple centric forum and the earnings of Apple is an indicator of the health of the company and of the iOS platform. Many MR members root for the continued success of Apple so that their investment in the company and iOS continues for the forseeable future.
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magicschoolbus said:
i put a truck nuts pop socket on my iPhone XS Max.. Looks awesome.
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Pics or it didn't happen.
 
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ftaok said:
It's always about math. Math is the purest form of logic. I'm not understanding what your issue is with the statement that Cook put out.

Apple revised guidance revenue by $5B. Apple estimated that China would have contributed over $5B more than it actually did. Therefore, ,more than 100% of the shortfall in revenue compared to guidance is due to China. Other regions exceeded what they had estimated back in November.

Had every other region met their expectations, then China would have been responsible for 100% of the shortfall.

NOTE - MR was full of these kinds of discussions back when Apple routinely accounted for more than 100% of the profits generated by the smartphone market. Yes, it is possible to have more than 100% of the profits of an industry when others post losses.
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Google what "semantics" mean. But go ahead and try to explain the meaning of the words "shortfall/deficit/loss" by using math. Good luck. You cannot explain your mathematical findings without "using" language.

China cannot account for (for example) 105% of a loss. That 5% is money, they have NOT LOST because they've made more than expected elsewhere.

Same paradoxon with the "more than 100% of the profits". You cannot take more than the entire profit that an industry makes. If the others lose money, they have made no profit. A profit is by definition a financial gain. A loss is not a negative profit, a loss is no profit at all, because there is no gain.

Fascinating how long you need to realize that I never doubted the math, but your choice of words.
 
Baymowe335 said:
Haha, yeah...they are close to the end with $20B of profit in 90 days and $84B in sales.

What do you even mean the "beginning of the end?" So they are going to zero? What is your horizon? The company will fail, "some day?"

You doom and gloomers are all the same. General prognostications based on nothing.

There is innovation all over the place. Your failure to care or recognize it doesn't mean it's not happening.

Oh yeah, a MacBook with a Blue-ray drive. WOW!! That's innovation. The most secure way to unlock a device, pay at a terminal, and still hasn't been replicated by Android isn't innovative, but a drive that's been around 20 years in a laptop would be?

Silicon...THE best in the industry.
Neural Engine
Embedded Security on the silicon
AirPods
Watch
FaceID
ApplePay

Just a few of the innovations at Apple.
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I won’t argue with the rest but how is Apple Pay an innovation?
 
All the markets that have seen large growth are now becoming saturated and mature. There was ony so long they could keep making record profits for.

The real challenge now is to keep things stable.
 
ryanwarsaw said:
Some investors aren't convinced that China is the whole story. Let's see if they make the 84 or higher. Should be interesting. Anybody buying before earnings? I am leaving it alone for now.
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already bought couple of days ago!
 
Shanghaichica said:
I won’t argue with the rest but how is Apple Pay an innovation?
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Steve Woz said it was...I think so too. Changing the way we authenticate and pay, securely, privately, effortlessly? Pretty cool to me.
[doublepost=1548797859][/doublepost]Haha, they still made $20B in profit and the services margin is breathtaking.

Excellent quarter besides the China bruise.
 
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BuddyTronic said:
Tim Cook DID say that they would be light on revenue, but still have record earnings. He said that over 3 weeks ago.
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Was just reporting what I saw. Interesting that Cook has said they will price iPhones in foreign currencies from here on out.

$130 billion cash on the books. So they did spend quite a bit this year.
 
So, Apple did beat the revised estimates, AAPL is up.

The downgrade itself tells more of the future earnings - not rosy.
 
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