It will likely be that the regulators will go after this in the right order.Yes, the 30% commission is what Apple is really fighting for. Regulators going after IAP or the App Store are missing the forest for the trees. Apple's fundamental position is that by by virtue of its investments into iOS, silicon, APIs, hardware, marketing, etc. it has cultivated an extremely valuable set of customers and if you want to tap into that you need to give them a cut. IAP and the App Store are just the methods they use to collect that rent. Regulators can (and will) go after them all they want and Apple will just find a new way to collect its commission (as I said before, if sideloading is enforced Apple will go after it at the Dev Account level).
No one (regulators, courts, lawmakers, etc.) has actually come out and said "Apple is not entitled to a commission". They've just gotten into fights with Apple over the current ways Apple collects it. Apple can credibly argue that, given that it is owed a commission, mandating IAP and the App Store are a good idea because they make it simple for Apple to collect it and are simple for consumers. But those are just proxy battles over the fundamental issue. And once regulators have forced Apple to cede its payment and distribution exclusivity, they'll have to actually address the elephant in the room. And I think getting Apple to actually lower its commissions is going to be much, much harder than going after IAP or the App Store. I can see two ways to do that:
1. Straight up cap the fee. This is complicated because there's no "right" answer. What exactly is Apple entitled to anyway? Ten years ago 30% was fine. Now it's not. Is the answer 5%, 10%, 20%? iOS isn't really a utility. It's much easier to say "add another store for competition" then make a value judgement like that.
2. Go after Apple's "monopoly" on dev accounts. Basically say Apple can't be the only one providing APIs, tools, notarization. This would "work" but it would basically be a nightmare to implement and doesn't even make sense. Apple makes the platform, it makes no sense for a third party to provide the accounts and signing.
IAP and the App Store are the comparatively easy pickings. Regulators will go after them first and find themselves right back in square one, with no easy way to move forward.
First apple had to abandon control of IAP as they just did, but countering with the 27% fee.
This will very likely spring the trap on apple, especially as some recent groundbreaking European court of Justice rulings( equivalent to US Supreme Court) that have just happened in the end of 2021 in other lawsuits
1: they ruled first sale exhaustion includes licensed software sold at fixed price.
case UsedSoft v Oracle
And reinforced Directive 86/653/EEC) (the “Commercial Agents Directive”)
Of the first sale doctrine
2: software sold with a perpetual use license counts as a sale of goods and Exhaustion of intellectual property rights
The Software Incubator Ltd v Computer Associates (UK) Ltd.
That it includes downloaded software. 2021 reinforcing the 2016 ruling to cover more digital software.
Thes rulings Under EU law, once a good protected by an intellectual property right has been put lawfully on the market within the European Union (i.e. by the right holder or with his or her consent), the rights conferred by that intellectual property right in relation to the commercial exploitation of the good become exhausted. In that case, the right holder can no longer invoke the intellectual property right in question to prevent the further resale, rental, lending or other forms of commercial exploitation of the goods
This means apple don’t have a right to exploit the sold app for more commercial exploitation after first sale to consumers unless the developers agree to pay for this service
But we will se in the next few days likely.