of course not, but you can shut up all the people in this thread saying stuff like this isn't possible.
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Apple to (possibly) sell movies online
- Thread starter medea
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of course not, but you can shut up all the people in this thread saying stuff like this isn't possible.
iDVD in all this
I think that iDVD will at some point become to movies what iTunes is to music. Perhaps advanced video playlist features will make their way into a completely new application, an iVideo for example.
Hopefully the content will not be limited to trailers, Star Wars Kid and Pixar films.
I think that iDVD will at some point become to movies what iTunes is to music. Perhaps advanced video playlist features will make their way into a completely new application, an iVideo for example.
Hopefully the content will not be limited to trailers, Star Wars Kid and Pixar films.
It's true that it's possible, but there are definitely hurdles that need to be overcome before this can become a money-making proposition.
Hmm. As it turns out, the truth is halfway in between.
First off, we're talking US formats here: NTSC and ATSC HD. There is one NTSC format: 720x486/30i. (We're gonna ignore interlace here and just deal with frames. The numbers work out the same in terms of informational units--pixels or bytes--per unit time.) There are two ATSC HD formats: 1920x1080/30i and 1280x720/60p. Let's do 'em both.
NTSC is 10,497,600 pixels per second. It's hard to translate that into bandwidth because it depends on how the image data is encoded. At 4:4:4 RGB, 8 bits per pixel, it's 1,049,760 bytes per frame. At 4:2:2 YUV, the data is packed into two bytes per pixel--one byte for luminance data and two four-bit values for color--so that comes to 699,840 bytes per frame. In actual TV production, you don't use 8 bits per pixel; you use 10 bits per pixel. That raises all sorts of complicated pixel-packing and byte-alignment issues that are best left unplumbed right now, because it's too early in the morning for me to think clearly about them.
So let's skip the bytes per stuff and go with pixels per. That's a fine apples-to-apples comparison.
NTSC: 10,497,600
1080/30i is 62,208,000 pixels per second (1920*1080*30).
720/60p is 55,296,000 pixels per second (1280*720*60).
Half 1080/30i is 960x540/30i, or 15,552,000 pixels per second. That's 1.5 times NTSC.
Half 720/60p is 640x360/60p, or 13,824,000 pixels per second. That's 1.3 times NTSC.
So whichever way you slice it, half HD would require considerably more bandwidth than NTSC at the same encoding. I was wrong to say 3X (I foolishly just divided the pixels per second by two, instead of by four), but the figure is still higher.
It could happen, it should happen, using some incredibly advanced streaming software. I don't think Apple are going to leave QuickTime TV as it is, it's possibilities are endless, I would love to abandon my TV and just use my Mac.
Speaking as someone who just last summer spent $3,000 on a brand new HDTV, I would disagree.
I would, however, be amenable to a Mac-like device with SD/HD component analog outputs for watching streamed or downloaded programs.
Re: Not yet
One thing you've got to remember with this...Download speed depends both on the person sending and the person receiving. When you download from a P2P, you do not generally get a blazing fast connection because of the shadiness of the originator and his speed.
With Apple, you can expect top-of-the-line servers that will maximize the speed that you could get. That doesn't make enough of a difference to make this plausible yet, per se, but like other posters have said, soon "we" will all have higher-speed broadband.
And who are "we"? Apple is not targetting lower-middle-class and below with this, or people who can just barely check their e-mail. No, they're initial targets are the junkies like us, for whom it has been so long since we bought a DVD or CD in a store that we are just more comfortable downloading it. In general, these people are from above-average educated, above-average (if slightly) income groups who have a bit more knowledge about technology...And are thus more likely to have a higher speed internet connection. These people would also be more likely to dump 15 to 20 bucks online for a DVD.
One thing you've got to remember with this...Download speed depends both on the person sending and the person receiving. When you download from a P2P, you do not generally get a blazing fast connection because of the shadiness of the originator and his speed.
With Apple, you can expect top-of-the-line servers that will maximize the speed that you could get. That doesn't make enough of a difference to make this plausible yet, per se, but like other posters have said, soon "we" will all have higher-speed broadband.
And who are "we"? Apple is not targetting lower-middle-class and below with this, or people who can just barely check their e-mail. No, they're initial targets are the junkies like us, for whom it has been so long since we bought a DVD or CD in a store that we are just more comfortable downloading it. In general, these people are from above-average educated, above-average (if slightly) income groups who have a bit more knowledge about technology...And are thus more likely to have a higher speed internet connection. These people would also be more likely to dump 15 to 20 bucks online for a DVD.
Nice analysis, but one quick possible correction. You say that 4:2:2 YUV has data packed 2 bytes/pixel. That would be twice 4:4:4 RGB (8 bits/pixel). So shouldn't the value be
1,049,760*2, which is not 699840?
Maybe I'm wrong here, not sure. Just wondering.
Think big!
This is Apple we are talking about here. You gotta push those limits to the extreme and think outside of the box. An online downloadable movie store would be fantastic. Because of OS X's stand alone application design you could pick a movie and let it download throughout the day while still using your cpu for other stuff... if download speeds were optimized it might be even quicker. Anyway... all I care about is the release of a new 15" Powerbook.
Do you think they'd release it quicker if we all made like Gandhi and didn't eat until they did what we wanted? I'm all for the non violent approach...
Although if anybody want to storm the Apple building brandishing guns and hand grenades I'll do that to. I'm desperate.
This is Apple we are talking about here. You gotta push those limits to the extreme and think outside of the box. An online downloadable movie store would be fantastic. Because of OS X's stand alone application design you could pick a movie and let it download throughout the day while still using your cpu for other stuff... if download speeds were optimized it might be even quicker. Anyway... all I care about is the release of a new 15" Powerbook.
Do you think they'd release it quicker if we all made like Gandhi and didn't eat until they did what we wanted? I'm all for the non violent approach...
Although if anybody want to storm the Apple building brandishing guns and hand grenades I'll do that to. I'm desperate.
Ever country needs to be like Sweden and BBS with its 100mbit unmetered connection to 50% of homes (the other 50% are still stuck at 10mbit unmetered; but upgrades are constantly taking place).
+++++PLUS+++++
What about this swanky new super high quality quicktime stuff? Maybe they didn't just develop that specifically for Pixar... it could be that they have been thinking about this for a while and the new quicktime with Panther (i forgot what its called, "Pixel" or something like that) is probably going to be used for that.
What about this swanky new super high quality quicktime stuff? Maybe they didn't just develop that specifically for Pixar... it could be that they have been thinking about this for a while and the new quicktime with Panther (i forgot what its called, "Pixel" or something like that) is probably going to be used for that.
Curious, but how are the Swedes able to deliver 100mb to the home??? This sort of bandwidth seams a bit much to my ears, are you sure your quoting the correct figrues? just to give you an example of how ludicrous this sounds to my ears, a quote for a 100mb link the uk would cost £919080.00 before VAT. So unless the swedes are very very well off financially, I would possibly either question your stats or like to know how they are managing to deliver such a service.
jason
I'm not sure about his/her figures, but I do know that just because they're able to deliver those speeds (probably using Ethernet over Fiber) it doesn't mean they're affordable. Only about 25% of homes in Sweden are subscribed to some type of broadband Internet connection.
Re: We need competition in broadband for this to happen
Knowing several people with cable modems and several people with DSL, I can say with absolute certainty that the above is not always true. Certainly in my area (Comcast Cable) the cable modem network is oversold and slow as mollasses compared to DSL (which clips along at a rated 768 and gets about 500 sustained vs maybe 100 sustained on cable modems, 200 if you surf in the middle of the night).
The problem with cable modems is that your actual per-house bandwidth is not fixed, and is inversely proportional to how many houses in your area the cable company signs up. Now, given the upmost levels of philanthropy cable companies have historically shown, i know this may come as a shock, but I've yet to see a cable company say "No, can't sign you up because that would make your neighbor's connection too slow; sorry!"
To the general point though, yes, there needs to be a general industry upheaval before "broadband for the masses" becomes reality ... DSL and cable both, frankly, suck.
Knowing several people with cable modems and several people with DSL, I can say with absolute certainty that the above is not always true. Certainly in my area (Comcast Cable) the cable modem network is oversold and slow as mollasses compared to DSL (which clips along at a rated 768 and gets about 500 sustained vs maybe 100 sustained on cable modems, 200 if you surf in the middle of the night).
The problem with cable modems is that your actual per-house bandwidth is not fixed, and is inversely proportional to how many houses in your area the cable company signs up. Now, given the upmost levels of philanthropy cable companies have historically shown, i know this may come as a shock, but I've yet to see a cable company say "No, can't sign you up because that would make your neighbor's connection too slow; sorry!"
To the general point though, yes, there needs to be a general industry upheaval before "broadband for the masses" becomes reality ... DSL and cable both, frankly, suck.
argh.
people won't have connections fast enough for this in years! get it through your skulls
i have a cable modem. my nieghbor got one around easter. my cable slowed down. it used to be a lot faster. oh well. it still beats dial-up
people won't have connections fast enough for this in years! get it through your skulls
i have a cable modem. my nieghbor got one around easter. my cable slowed down. it used to be a lot faster. oh well. it still beats dial-up
FTTH Costs.
Here in Japan, my friend pays about $50 per month for FTTH. That gives him 12.5MB (100Mb) connection speed. Quite a bit cheaper than the UK it seems.
Personally, I have ADSL. They have three levels: 12Mb, 8Mb and 1.5Mb. My service is 1.5Mb due to my location. I pay about $35 per month.
Sushi
Here in Japan, my friend pays about $50 per month for FTTH. That gives him 12.5MB (100Mb) connection speed. Quite a bit cheaper than the UK it seems.
Personally, I have ADSL. They have three levels: 12Mb, 8Mb and 1.5Mb. My service is 1.5Mb due to my location. I pay about $35 per month.
Sushi
i guess my point was that I can't see 100mb as being a correct statistic. The figures suspiciously reflect ethernet speeds (gigabit and 10mb speeds). The 100mb product I quoted was for a lease line, DSL technology is obviously substantially cheaper. Presently I belive the fastest speeds available in the Uk are 4mb available in london and 2mb available geographically. The ICT company I work for have plans to deliver 6mb to the home within the next three years and are looking at speeds of up to 17mb within the next six years. We're along way off the speeds in Japan at the moment granted, but three years for 6mb connections isnt far off. with this in mind, it is very conceivable that videop purchases online will become a feasable reality, especialy as the Uk arent generally as quick as the US and far eatern countries with the introduction of new technology.
jason
jason
Korea and Japan seem to have the broadest broadband takeup so it would make sense for Apple or anyone else to start up a service there. I can't see the US as being a big consumer market for the service in the near future unless radical new technology was introduced. It will happen, it's just a matter of when.
I would bet even money on there being an Apple set-top box within two years. Remember, the iTMS took 18 months to develop. I would expect it to stream via Airport Extreme as you download a movie and allow the user to pause, rewind, and fast forward. I'd also expect to be able to buy from the couch and also stream any other video I happen to have on my computer.
Recording TV also makes perfect sense. The thing will probably be available with a hard drive, but possibly also without, because by then, lots of people will have hundreds of gigs of storage and fast networking on their main computer.
I'm not in any hurry to see it. I know that when it happens, it will be done right. Such is the beauty of Apple: if you can think of it, they probably thought of it years ago, and if it makes sense, they're probably already working on it.
Oh, and my name prediction:
iWatch
Recording TV also makes perfect sense. The thing will probably be available with a hard drive, but possibly also without, because by then, lots of people will have hundreds of gigs of storage and fast networking on their main computer.
I'm not in any hurry to see it. I know that when it happens, it will be done right. Such is the beauty of Apple: if you can think of it, they probably thought of it years ago, and if it makes sense, they're probably already working on it.
Oh, and my name prediction:
iWatch
I think that having DSL or its equivalent would be a necessary perquisite to downloading a movie. My problem would be saving the downloaded movie. I would want to see the actual cost being less than purchasing a DVD. Would still expect the same quality. Apple's customer base would be lower than for the music store because of the perquisites.
I could of course be wrong here, but I have a feelilng if Apple does this it won't be quite the "play video on demand" store people are picturing. Competing with rental just won't work, partly because of how cheap and easy rentals are, and in part because there's already PayPerView to compete with, and even that isn't hugely successful even though it's got a set-top-box and ins't expensive. Besides, video on demand won't be smoothly available to most people for a long time, and it's not even the model that the iTMS is using now.
I'd find it much more likely it would be more like a "Buy a movie without leaving home" solution. That is, you click "buy" and stick a DVD in the drive, then after a download of heavily compressed video (and probably a re-compress into MPEG2, and a burn, out pops a finished DVD with standard DVD copy protection (if that's possible--I don't know a whole lot about the process). Play it on your computer, or on your TV, and even at $10 or $20, it'd be cheaper and easier than the store.
There'd also have to be a TiVo-like option, which could also provide copy protection, and I suppose you could play the movie directly on your computer, but maybe Apple would avoid that method for copy protection reasons.
These methods are "safer" for Apple, and don't require massive bandwidth--just enough to get the movie to you in a couple hours of download or so, which is certainly available now. Nobody needs to be playing it real time, to be sure.
Whether it's more like this, or more like a legal filesharing service, it probably won't happen for at least a couple years, but it doesn't have to reach every human on earth for Apple to try it--I'd be quite willing to bet that they'd be targeting geeks and high-end users anyway, which would be plenty of a market to start, and probably exists already.
I'd find it much more likely it would be more like a "Buy a movie without leaving home" solution. That is, you click "buy" and stick a DVD in the drive, then after a download of heavily compressed video (and probably a re-compress into MPEG2, and a burn, out pops a finished DVD with standard DVD copy protection (if that's possible--I don't know a whole lot about the process). Play it on your computer, or on your TV, and even at $10 or $20, it'd be cheaper and easier than the store.
There'd also have to be a TiVo-like option, which could also provide copy protection, and I suppose you could play the movie directly on your computer, but maybe Apple would avoid that method for copy protection reasons.
These methods are "safer" for Apple, and don't require massive bandwidth--just enough to get the movie to you in a couple hours of download or so, which is certainly available now. Nobody needs to be playing it real time, to be sure.
Whether it's more like this, or more like a legal filesharing service, it probably won't happen for at least a couple years, but it doesn't have to reach every human on earth for Apple to try it--I'd be quite willing to bet that they'd be targeting geeks and high-end users anyway, which would be plenty of a market to start, and probably exists already.
The cost is $20 a month. I will admit the backbone to other countries isn't as strong as it is in country. I've transfered between sites in Sweden at 7500KBps (not Kb) numerous times in the past. Speeds to the US can still reach 2000KBps but they don't reach full 100mbit. I believe the gov't subsidised cat5 to the home in the early 90's and now they are subsidisng fiber to the home. I'm not exactly sure how they do it; I just know that there are hundreds of 100mbit and even more 10mbit vcd/divx sites in sweden (at least there were when I got out of that hobby last year).