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And who is to say they are.

Sounds rather like some people are desperate to see only good in any move Apple makes.
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I don't think a $75bn organisation is "saddled" with anything.

I'm not saying they definitely are, but Microsoft already have their fingers in the pie since they've spent money on R&D and I highly doubt their interest will end with the Surface Pro X.

Also. I'm not desperate to only see good in Apple. I'm just wishing them well in a venture that is likely to mean their users get improvements in speed and efficiency over intel's current offerings.

Desperate, indeed.
 
Where did you get this "technical debt caused CISC" nonsense from? The assumptions underpinning your entire argument are flawed. And do you *honestly* think Intel with all their resources could not develop a RISC architecture CPU platform is they wanted to or saw a need to? Really?

1) I get the “technical debt caused by CISC nonsense” from my experience designing x86 and x86-64 chips for a decade, and comparing it to my experience design chips for three different RISC architectures (SPARC, PowerPC, and MIPS).

Do you have specific experience from designing x86-64 processors that would help explain why you think there is no technical debt having to include a microcode sequencer, microcode ROMs, load/store bypasses, writeable instruction pages, etc.?

2) as i noted, if Intel designs RISC chips, they can be (A) not ARM, in which case they are compatible with nothing and have all the disadvantages everyone is whining about with apple’s plan or (B) ARM, in which case they still have those disadvantages and are no better than what apple can do because they can’t be tailored to Apple’s needs.
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I don't see why Intel or AMD need a fab advantage in the first place when they have a clear advantage in manufacturing thanks to way higher volume. That also means they can have way more SKUs for sale. Not to mention the entire hardware and software infrastructure around their CPUs.
Anyway both AMD and Intel are transitioning to new X86 CPUs in the near future, it's not like the X86 improvements will stop the moment Apple will launch a Mac with an ARM CPU.

This is an insane post. AMD uses THE SAME FAB as apple. TSMC, apple’s fab, has a MUCH larger volume than Intel. What are you talking about?
 
What if TSMC hit the some wall as Intel does now.
This is a great question. It appears team ARM is under the impression ARM will never face challenges. Either that or they believe Intel is some incompetent company that can't make a decent processor to save their business. Making processors is complex and expensive. To think that Apple is going to endlessly make processors without challenges while Intel flounders around is, IMO, naive.
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I don’t understand your point. Intel has money, therefore x86 suddenly doesn’t have all the technical debt caused by being a crappy old CISC architecture?
The whole concept of RISC versus CISC is, IMO, is dead. Processor technology is considerably more advanced than where it was when there was a meaningful distinction between the two.
 
This is a great question. It appears team ARM is under the impression ARM will never face challenges. Either that or they believe Intel is some incompetent company that can't make a decent processor to save their business. Making processors is complex and expensive. To think that Apple is going to endlessly make processors without challenges while Intel flounders around is, IMO, naive.

It’s naive to think that Apple, now using an architecture that has an inherent advantage over x86, and now free to CHOOSE to use whatever fab is executing on all cylinders, can’t keep up with Intel which has to execute perfectly to even be competitive. Hell, if Intel gets its act together in the fabs, you don’t think they’d happily make Apple’s arm chips in order to soak up fab volume? Of course they would.

The fabless model is a huge part of apple’s advantage - look at what getting rid of fabs did for AMD once they jettisoned Global Foundries (their spinoff).
 
No joke whatsoever. How could they possibly compete given that they have no fab advantage and they are saddled with an architecture that has inherent technical disadvantages?
I don't know, perhaps in the same way they competed in 1995 when Mac transitioned from 68K to PPC and the same argument was being made?

ARM has been around for decades. If it is so superior to x86 then where has it been for the past 30 years?
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It’s naive to think that Apple, now using an architecture that has an inherent advantage over x86, and now free to CHOOSE to use whatever fab is executing on all cylinders, can’t keep up with Intel which has to execute perfectly to even be competitive. Hell, if Intel gets its act together in the fabs, you don’t think they’d happily make Apple’s arm chips in order to soak up fab volume? Of course they would.

The fabless model is a huge part of apple’s advantage - look at what getting rid of fabs did for AMD once they jettisoned Global Foundries (their spinoff).
Please detail these inherent advantages. Or will I just hear the same RISC versus CISC reasons I heard back in 1995?
 
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I don't know, perhaps in the same way they competed in 1995 when Mac transitioned from 68K to PPC and the same argument was being made?

ARM has been around for decades. If it is so superior to x86 then where has it been for the past 30 years?

1) it needs software.
2) nobody had a vested interest in making fast arm chips. I mean, why would intel make Arm? (They bought strong arm to get the design team then sold the business). Why would AMD? Why would anyone?

Anyway, wait a year and come back to me.
 
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This is an insane post. AMD uses THE SAME FAB as apple. TSMC, apple’s fab, has a MUCH larger volume than Intel. What are you talking about?
Nothing insane about it.
TSMC's high performance node is not the same as their as their low power nodes so high performance chips thta would compete with AMD's and Intel's CPUs won't be manufactured on the same node iphone chips are manufactured.
Apple's Mac market share is very small in comparison to the total market addressed by AMD and Intel CPUs.
 
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Maybe the efforts to affirm sales of Intel Macs is indication Apple is going to make a sincere effort to try to tackle the Bootcamp / VM for Windows problem / concern. I was around for PPC to Intel transition, and know they technically kept selling PPCs after announcement, but I do think (hope) this is truly a sincere effort to not lose a segment that has been loyal and are power users. I'm a lawyer, so I'm going to be fine professionally regardless, but don't want Apple to lose professional and higher ed users (I think some on here have mentioned field-specific software that is so specialized no one in right mind would port to MacOS) if possible. To me, a user who loves their Mac and MacOS are also solid prospect to use Macs for personal use and thus be drawn into entire "ecosystem". I've seen Macs grow in use among lawyers I know, some who used to look at my MBP as an oddity, and have gone full Mac/Apple after using Macs for work (not programming or intensive video work, but point remains valid imho)
I know squat about the tech behind CPUs, RISC, etc., and not naive enough to ignore fact some users may indeed have to look elsewhere, but also not willing to assume the absolute worst this early. I do accept AAA gaming is not likely to be a priority for Apple anytime in the near future, or ever, but otherwise think Apple is well aware of the concerns posted here and does not want to simply say "sorry, bye" to a segment of their existing base if it can be avoided. Who knows, maybe they have already made the decision to do so in light of gains vs costs. And some folks have to make expensive decisions now that do not allow them to wait. But nothing is certain yet.
<Now I'm going to duck b/c likely my naive, wordy (I'm a lawyer) and clearly non- tech savvy post looks fan boyish even though it's just meant to be a "don't throw in the towel" or accept doomsday predictions. >
 
1) it needs software.
2) nobody had a vested interest in making fast arm chips. I mean, why would intel make Arm? (They bought strong arm to get the design team then sold the business). Why would AMD? Why would anyone?

Anyway, wait a year and come back to me.
IBM has been making high performance RISC chips for years. They simply aren't successful.
 
1) it needs software.
2) nobody had a vested interest in making fast arm chips. I mean, why would intel make Arm? (They bought strong arm to get the design team then sold the business). Why would AMD? Why would anyone?

Anyway, wait a year and come back to me.
Apple had an interest. Instead they went with PPC.
 
IBM has been making high performance RISC chips for years. They simply aren't successful.

They still sell them in their own workstations. PowerPC stuck around in game consoles for years. They seem to have had some success. What they didn’t have is their own consumer operating system or hardware business.

In any event, the question was about Arm chips.

BTW, Exponential’s PowerPC chips were faster than intel chips, too. The reason they failed had nothing to do with technical merit. (I was the floating point designer on the x705, and took over as floating point designer on the x704).

The point being that RISC chips CAN be faster than CISC chips, so long as the people making them have motivation to address that market. (Look at the DEC Alpha!). But *other* reasons explain why Arm has not, until now, addressed that market. For the same reason that Sparc, SGI MIPS, DEC Alpha, etc. were all faster than Intel but did not achieve market success.
 
They still sell them in their own workstations. PowerPC stuck around in game consoles for years. They seem to have had some success. What they didn’t have is their own consumer operating system or hardware business.

In any event, the question was about Arm chips.

BTW, Exponential’s PowerPC chips were faster than intel chips, too. The reason they failed had nothing to do with technical merit. (I was the floating point designer on the x705, and took over as floating point designer on the x704).

The point being that RISC chips CAN be faster than CISC chips, so long as the people making them have motivation to address that market. (Look at the DEC Alpha!). But *other* reasons explain why Arm has not, until now, addressed that market. For the same reason that Sparc, SGI MIPS, DEC Alpha, etc. were all faster than Intel but did not achieve market success.
And CISC chips can be faster than RISC chips. In fact Apple moved to CISC because the RISC chip they were using hit a wall. Processor technology has reached a point where the distinction between the two has been all but been rendered moot.
 
The converse is also true...if your needs are so specialized, why do you attach to Macs in the first place? You would be better served by a Windows laptop or a desktop if you don’t mind me tied down to a desk.

In your argument, you provide a use case of losing Windows apps and Bootcamp functionality. And you say it with a straight face. Apple is supposed to keep going down this road of using x86 because some people use Windows on a Mac and that should be preserved? Are you f***ing serious? The rest of us should be held captive on our own independent platform by Windows and its users? I use a Mac so that I don’t have to use Windows and if Apple has decided its time to change CPUs and has a legitimate reason to do so (they do), a bunch of Bootcampers and gamers are simply SOL. Go buy a Windows machine. Go to that world and stay in it. You have all the other damn PC OEMs and you can build your own desktop. Go away. I don’t give a s*** if you can’t play PC games on a Bootcamp Mac anymore. Go buy a gaming PC or a console. Unbelievable, the presumptuousness that you have everything else and you should have Apple cater to you and every other PC user because you dropped some coin on a Mac. The sooner the switch happens, the sooner the Intel people will go away.
Dude, chill out; it’s not like I ran over your dog. I hate Windows. Apple doesn’t put out any serious effort for game development support, so I do have to use Windows for that. That said, I haven’t been for ages because I’m too poor to buy TWO computers and displays. I don’t want a console, either. I use Logic, so Mac OS it is. For other tasks, I still want the OS that hurts the least, and that’s still only Mac OS.

I do think this chip transition could help the platform in some ways, if it works out. The only way to move forward is custom chips for specialized functions, not throwing hotter and hotter CPUs at every task. I’m just sick of the way some users are treated by the fanboys for voicing legit criticism of the damage done to our productivity by these repeat and fairly rapid OS changes breaking stuff. I also refuse to accept the notion that these machines must be limited to customers who can afford “luxury”

This is NOT the Apple that won me over in 2008... but I sure as hell am not going back to Windows/PCs. I’d rather stop using computers entirely than go back to Windows. FFS, I just hate the whole computer industry any more; it’s an abusive product market and miserable experience overall.
 
And CISC chips can be faster than RISC chips. In fact Apple moved to CISC because the RISC chip they were using hit a wall. Processor technology has reached a point where the distinction between the two has been all but been rendered moot.

But CISC chips have NO INHERENT advantage, whereas RISC chips DO.

And when you don’t own your fab, you are free to pick whatever fab is the fastest (that’s what killed PowerPC for Apple - Intel’s fabs blew everyone away). So Apple can just take it’s inherently-better architecture and fab it on whatever fab is currently in the lead, *including* intel, which will happily fab chips for Apple.
 
In 2 years TSMC will be on N5P, and on the cusp of N3.

And Intel will be on 14++++++.

And more cores is better than more threads per core. And AMD will have no fab advantage over Apple.

And Intel’s new architecture will be no better in terms of CPI than its current one.

I really doubt AMD or Intel can compete with Apple.
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Oh yeah? When are they going to get rid of FireWire ports, SD card slots, USB-A ports, and floppy disks if you’re so smart?

Intel will be on 10nm by the end of this year.

By the end of 2021 they will be competing on 10nm+ against AMD's Z4 (on 5nm).
 
1) I get the “technical debt caused by CISC nonsense” from my experience designing x86 and x86-64 chips for a decade, and comparing it to my experience design chips for three different RISC architectures (SPARC, PowerPC, and MIPS).

Oh yeah, right, we get a load of chip designers on here.

I am calling total BS on that one. OBVIOUSLY. What are you 12?

Perhaps I should add that I was PA to Steve Jobs for 27 years? Or any other made up line to suit my argument.
 
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I am calling total BS on that one.

Ask around. I’ve been on here for 13 years. Many people know who I am, and that I worked at Exponential, Sun and AMD. Here, for example, is the paper I wrote for the Journal of Solid State Physics about the PowerPC i designed: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/641683

Here’s stuff written about predictions I made on these forums years ago about AMD which, at the time, were dismissed as me being a fake, but which were proven true: https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/ex-amd-engineer-explains-bulldozer-fiasco.2198529/
 
Ask around. I’ve been on here for 13 years. Many people know who I am, and that I worked at Exponential, Sun and AMD. Here, for example, is the paper I wrote for the Journal of Solid State Physics about the PowerPC i designed: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/641683

Here’s stuff written about predictions I made on these forums years ago about AMD which, at the time, were dismissed as me being a fake, but which were proven true: https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/ex-amd-engineer-explains-bulldozer-fiasco.2198529/
I'll stick with my earlier judgement.
 
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I'll stick with my earlier judgement.
Yeah, don’t let proof get in the way of your opinions.

Here’s my PhD thesis, if that helps? https://www.ecse.rpi.edu/frisc/theses/MaierThesis/
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Intel will be on 10nm by the end of this year.

By the end of 2021 they will be competing on 10nm+ against AMD's Z4 (on 5nm).
Ok. 10+ isn’t as bad as 14++++++. (Is it? Is it like a b-flat is the same as an a-sharp? And shouldn’t intel use minuses instead? Like 14- ?)

Still won’t be competitive with TSMC of course.
 
My undrstanding of CISC vs RISC is that RISC replaced complex memory to memory instructions with simpler (equal length) instructions that operated on registers in a larger register stack. This is combined with load / store instructions.

This makes for a simpler architecture, i.e. smaller and simpler core, less power consumed. Correct or?
 
What are these inherent advantages? Can I expect the same list as what was provided back in 1995?
The only advantage CISC had in 1995 was intel’s fabs.

The advantages RISC has are the same advantages it always had. X86 requires much more complex instruction decoders with microcode sequencers and microcode ROMs, much more complicated pipelines, much more complicated load/store logic, much more complicated branch prediction to compensate for the more complicated pipelines, etc. All because x86 allows writeable instruction streams, variable length instructions, ALU instructions that directly address memory, etc. For all these reasons RISC cores are much smaller than x86 cores. This allows greater clock frequency if you want it (because electrical signals travel at about 6ps per mm in a chip), less power usage (fewer switching transistors, so less charging of capacitance - power = cap * V squared * frequency), fewer gates between flip flops (which also allows higher clock frequency if you want it), fewer pipe stages (which means less of a penalty when you guess wrong on a conditional branch, etc. ARM also has more general purpose registers, which means fewer load/stores (with their inherent multi-cycle penalties), etc.

And that’s just the start of the technical advantages.
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My undrstanding of CISC vs RISC is that RISC replaced complex memory to memory instructions with simpler (equal length) instructions that operated on registers in a larger register stack. This is combined with load / store instructions.

This makes for a simpler architecture, i.e. smaller and simpler core, less power consumed. Correct or?
Largely yes.

In CISC you may say:

ADD [memory A], [memory B] -> [memory C]

If taken literally, you would have to fetch two arguments from memory, perhaps sequentially, each taking dozens of cycles (even assuming the data was in the cache). Only then can you add. Then you have to write the results into memory. That takes forever.

In CISC you would:

LOAD [memory A], R1
LOAD [memory B], R2
ADD R1, R2 -> R3
STORE R3, [memory C]

Even in this tiny example, the STORE can be postponed and other stuff can execute, as long as R3 isn’t needed for anything. Only when R3 is needed do you have to do the store - at that point perhaps you store multiple things at once, to minimize the penalty.

And this also simplifies the hardware design tremendously. For x86 you may try to fix this by adding secret registers to hold the results of memory A and memory B and memory C. But then you need to keep track of what those registers hold (with tags), and have complex logic to decide when to deal with them vs when to just do a load/store.

You also, in any modern x86, essentially try to convert the first example to the second example. But the hardware to do that takes space and multiple pipeline stages. It’s simple in this example, but much harder in some of the goofier x86 things - like x86 lets you do things like:

ADD [memory A offset by the contents of register A], [memory B] -> [memory C]

Now you have to add just to figure out what memory address you are adding!
 
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On the other hand, if Rosetta 2 allows Parallels and Fusion to run in X86 emulation layer, it will be possible to run Windows for X86 as a VM on the ARM Mac. The performance may be dismal, though, as it will be handled by the emulation and the virtualization layers.

That would be totally stupid - because this way you would emulate the whole Windows code in addition to application code. When you run Windows on ARM - only the application code - not the Windows code - need to be emulated, which gives as much better experience.
 
This is what I find perplexing with MS. That was/is their own 1st party hardware carrying their brand name on it. Why release the Surface X at all if they weren’t going to develop proper emulation tools, and didn’t even bother to have their signature software running natively on the platform???

Apple just made them look like chumps. All of their 1st party software, including their signature professional apps, running from day 1 natively, and an emulation tool for 3rd party software that is obviously miles beyond what MS produced. MS even has their own signature software running natively on Apple Silicon macOS before they even have a Windows ARM version.

Not to mention Adobe et al. If that doesn’t say volumes about how the developer community is going to support this transition, then nobody will ever be convinced.

I mean, the fact that you are going to be running iOS and iPadOS apps natively - that alone - is going to drive developer adoption. You have just given the mobile developers a slam dunk at earning more money without having to do anything at all - and even more by doing the macOS UI work. Think beyond the MacRumors forum here. The average consumer that has an iPhone as their main device pretty much - and I am talking the non-tech interested younger and older generations here mostly - tell them that this machine will run all of the apps/games they use on their phone out of the box. Then tell them that this Windows PC over here will never be able to do that.

I actually see Mac market share going up.
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This was my observation as well. iPadOS basically got macOS versions of all the core basic apps, i.e. Photos, Mail, etc. - at least from a UI standpoint.

They have now clearly shown that an iPad could easily handle a full on upgrade of iPadOS to be a touch first UX version of macOS in every meaningful way.

There's been an Office for ARM version since the Surface RT launched in 2012, and Office on the Surface Pro X is a native ARM build. Put down the cool-aid. It's not hard to get office to run on ARM MacOS when it already runs on WinRT.

As for Adobe, the Lightroom app they showed isn't the one professionals actually use with all the tools needed - that's Lightroom Classic. This is the port of Lightroom mobile, so it's basically the iOS version ahyways, and Photoshop already runs on iOS too. None of the apps which will actually present challenges, and NEED big performance (Premiere, After Effects) were shown or mentioned, and the ommission of real Lightroom I think is a clear indicator it's not as smooth as portrayed.

Throw in that most of us in this industry rely heavily on plugins and codec add-ons from smaller devs, and it doesn't matter if Adobe and Apple are both onboard (with the former being questionable) if we can't get our plugins. It's a chicken and egg problem - these devs can't afford to support both platforms, and won't support ARM until we switch... but we won't switch until they support it.
 
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