Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC

[MacRumors]

Apple's Vision Pro spatial computing headset has yet to sell 100,000 units in the quarter since it launched in the U.S. in February, according to market tracker IDC (via Bloomberg).

The device is projected to see a 75% drop in domestic sales in the current quarter, but the launch of Vision Pro internationally this month is expected to offset that decline.

IDC believes that a more affordable version at roughly half the price of the current $3,500 unit should rekindle interest in 2025, but sales are not expected to rise significantly over the coming year. Apple Vision Pro is set to launch in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, France, and Germany on Friday, July 12.

Reviews for the device have been mixed overall. For the most part, users have been impressed with the hardware and the technology introduced by the Vision Pro, but there are questions about the actual function of the device, the intuitiveness of the gesture-based control, the weight and comfort, and VR in general. Users have also been critical of the lack of content for the device.

"The Vision Pro's success, regardless of its price, will ultimately depend on the available content," said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president at IDC. "As Apple expands the product to international markets, it's crucial that local content is also made available."

Apple is expected to produce fewer than 400,000 Vision Pro headsets in 2024 due to the complexity of manufacturing, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. However, Apple is said to be already working on a new version of the ‌Apple Vision Pro‌ for 2025 that will be priced more affordably. IDC's Jeronimo predicts that will more than double sales when it arrives in the latter half of 2025.

Article Link: Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC

 

[dannyyankou]

It's difficult to convince people to buy a $3500+ pair of computer goggles.

And no, this is not the same as Steve Ballmer laughing at the iPhone.

 

[epox999]

Product is unreasonably expensive and far too limited in scope for regular consumers, still waiting for the "killer app" for this.

Would need to be under $1000 for most users to consider it, still blows my mind this is 7x-8x the cost of other VR headsets

 

[Compile 'em all]

I am a big Apple fan and built myself several (featured by Apple) apps in the early days of the apps store. Adopting new technology is no issue for me but €4000 is extremely hard to justify for something I will rarely use at home. 4K for a MacBook that will be used daily for work is no problem, 1.5k for an iPad will outlive several iPhones by years is a great investment. But 4K for a first gen product with limited use is a hard sell.

 

[ZiBart]

If you consider returns, its unlikely to hit 250k in sales this year.

 

[coffeemilktea]

but there are questions about the actual function of the device

Buy one, try it for a few days, and once the novelty wears off and you don't know what to actually do with it... it makes for a wonderful decoration for your shelf. 😎

 

[Sir Ruben]

It will sell to the bored rich people looking for the next purchase to entertain them for a few hours. Beyond that sales will sharply drop off.

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

Slowly but surely interest is gaining. It’s not going to be as fast as a $500 iPhone but it’ll get there. FB groups keep adding members and search Apple Vision Pro news and you’ll get more and more articles.

 

[mozumder]

It'll be a hit once we have content for it. Right now the app selection is pretty weak, but that'll take time to develop.

What's more interesting is the media production infrastructure. If Apple can get to a point where they can broadcast basketball games (or any other sport) in VR that'll be the tipping point. But for that to happen, they'll need time to redesign broadcast productions for VR. Things like camera angles and storytelling and data visualization needs practice to develop in a new format.

Right now, NBA basketball games and NFL football games have like 50 years of broadcast experience behind them, where they've developed every shot format perfectly to match the storytelling of each game. This will take time for VR headset media production companies to develop and train, including camera operators and technical directors. Cameras have to be much more steady otherwise we're going to throw up due to motion sickness, for example. Camera operators have to be trained to unlearn their traditional ways.

The VR cameras are only now becoming more accessible, like the upcoming BlackMagic Ursa Cinema Immersive camera. They will likely need entire backend production equipment to be redesigned/developed as well for broadcast purposes. This kind of infrastructure is likely 5-10 years away.

 

[testcard]

A more affordable version would need to be sub-$1000 before I would even consider buying one.

 

[newdeal]

There is no content that would make me spend $5650 Canadian after tax on a pair of ski goggles. Especially when Meta quest 3 is a tenth the price

 

[CB1234]

How can IDC say that Apple is unlikely to hit 500,000 sales, when Apple is unlikely to produce more than 400,000 units this year !! Doesn’t make sense !!

 

[Scott6666]

Buy one, try it for a few days, and once the novelty wears off and you don't know what to actually do with it... it makes for a wonderful decoration for your shelf. 😎

Agree totally. I regret keeping mine. Price is not a real issue. Lack of content is.

 

[gleepskip]

There is no content that would make me spend $5650 Canadian after tax on a pair of ski goggles. Especially when Meta quest 3 is a tenth the price

You forgot to add AppleCare which is another $800 and prescription lenses for $225

Total price is almost $6700

 

[Rychiar]

Agree totally. I regret keeping mine. Price is not a real issue. Lack of content is.

95% of what I do with mine is watch movies on a theater screen so I'm happy every time new movies come out

 

[jclardy]

It'll be a hit once we have content for it. Right now the app selection is pretty weak, but that'll take time to develop.

What's more interesting is the media production infrastructure. If Apple can get to a point where they can broadcast basketball games (or any other sport) in VR that'll be the tipping point. But for that to happen, they'll need time to redesign broadcast productions for VR. Things like camera angles and storytelling and data visualization needs practice to develop in a new format.

Right now, NBA basketball games and NFL football games have like 50 years of broadcast experience behind them, where they've developed every shot format perfectly to match the storytelling of each game. This will take time for VR headset media production companies to develop and train, including camera operators and technical directors. Cameras have to be much more steady otherwise we're going to throw up due to motion sickness, for example. Camera operators have to be trained to unlearn their traditional ways.

The VR cameras are only now becoming more accessible, like the upcoming BlackMagic Ursa Cinema Immersive camera. They will likely need entire backend production equipment to be redesigned/developed as well for broadcast purposes. This kind of infrastructure is likely 5-10 years away.

Yeah - media is the key. So far we've only gotten teasers of everything, but if they can get any one sport going for a full season I think it'll gather a huge new adoption for it.

Gaming is also a big thing, but Apple fumbled the launch for gaming by having horribly slow (30hz) hand tracking (Super accurate and great for productivity, but terrible for games.) They fixed this now in visionOS 2.0, so games should slowly start moving over at a faster pace, and if they can get more tooling other than Unity, it'll be even better.

The dev experience on 2.0 is also massively improved - you can now debug your game on your mac from inside of the game itself, vs having to leave the game to see your mac screen.

I do worry about the product though mainly because of Apple's once a year software drop cycle. Meta is turning on a dime with near monthly releases of new OS updates, and at $500 with a vast game library and increasing productivity software library, it will be tough to justify the extra $3k once we are mid-next year.

 

[iMac The Knife]

Called it! But, but, but, VP isn't a commercial flop. 🤣

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

For Apple to achieve a dramatically "cheaper" version means dramatic cuts in features & benefits, likely starting with 4K-per-eye. Consider the irony in a product with the word Vision in the name chopping down the visual quality. An ASD would cost a lot less too if Apple would cut 5K to 1080p. Where's the calls for that? Why aren't there calls for that?

For Apple to achieve the "under $1K" price some of us are slinging means beyond dramatic cuts to the device. These "far cheaper VR competitors" are usually 1080p at best. Do we actually want lower resolution? And if so, there's already plenty of cheap options down in that end of the pond- buy what is there now. Even the "must be glasses" option exists by shifting ALL processing and battery option off device and to the attached "brains" devices. I lack confidence an Apple logo stamped on any of those devices makes any difference for buyers.

Where's the "must be retina" crowd who pushes the Apple Display so hard in countless other threads, mostly on the importance of high-resolution views? How do we rationalize paying up for retina there while undermining already less-than-retina here? Because that's what we will almost certainly get with this hypothetical "cheaper" model... especially if price is cut to half & lower.

I don't see how Apple maintains its super-fat margin and gets down to the pricing some of us keep slinging. And I suspect the very same people railing against the pricing of the existing one will then rail against the dramatic cuts in features & benefits of a cheaper one. I don't know the answer to this issue: perhaps Apple should roll out the Vpro Monocle (4K for 1 eye)?

I know it's practically a game now to pile on the contempt for this product in every Vpro thread. But when this very vocal crowd gets the "lower price" will they NOT tear into the dramatic cuts that deliver it? What "we" actually seem to want is the same overall product quality & FABS at a dramatically-lower price... only achievable- best I can tell- by Apple opting to dump their margin... which seems the LAST thing modern Apple Inc. would do.

Else, as soon as one seeks a big cut, the first thing to go is probably the most expensive part (4K per eye). As soon as Apple dumps that down to competitor levels, there's no way to beat the even lower prices of established competitors (who don't seek towards 50% margin). Apple never does well when competing on price... because competition can easily undercut Apple pricing by simply opting for less margin.

Would Apple sell more units of this hypothetical Vnotpro Jr? Yes... because cheaper prices always moves more units. Will VnotPro be a big success? TBD... but "cheaper/cheapest" never seems to work for Apple.

 

[Harry Haller]

$999, more comfortable, M4 or M5 chip with Apple Intelligence and similar amounts of content and games to Quest and it will succeed. Maybe.

 

[chachawpi]

95% of what I do with mine is watch movies on a theater screen so I'm happy every time new movies come out

I watch movies on a TV. The TV cost a lot less than $3500 - even after including the surround sound system. If this is what people do with Vision Pro, there's no wonder it isn't selling.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

How can IDC say that Apple is unlikely to hit 500,000 sales, when Apple is unlikely to produce more than 400,000 units this year !! Doesn’t make sense !!

Well... if they know Apple is not going to produce more than 400,000 units, then it does make sense!
This would be the reason why they are so confident their prediction will happen.

 

[Rychiar]

I watch movies on a TV. The TV cost a lot less than $3500 - even after including the surround sound system. If this is what people do with Vision Pro, there's no wonder it isn't selling.

my 65" LG OLED tv was $2000 and my surround sound setup is $1500. Granted I wish I didn't invest so much In those things now since I watch all my movies on the Vision Pro but its not all that crazy considering the theater size screen

 

[chachawpi]

Shocker. This is not a product for the masses - it's a product for people with $3500 burning a hole in their pocket because they already own everything else which costs that much.

 

[foobarbaz]

How can IDC say that Apple is unlikely to hit 500,000 sales, when Apple is unlikely to produce more than 400,000 units this year !! Doesn’t make sense !!

It doesn't? What do you mean? It makes so much sense that you don't even need an expert analyst …

Anyway, I think they will sell all they can make, otherwise they wouldn't slowball the international rollout. 400,000 is only 100,000 per quarter. If they even approach that number in the US, they'll easily sell all of them once they add international markets. But next year will be tough, if they don't update the hardware. They'll probably sell less than this year without the pent-up demand of a launch.

 

[laz232]

Slowly but surely interest is gaining. It’s not going to be as fast as a $500 iPhone but it’ll get there. FB groups keep adding members and search Apple Vision Pro news and you’ll get more and more articles.

But there is no killer app for this - I've seen these headset products come and go for years! Like 3D TV in the home...

Whereas the smartphone (Nokia, Sony Ericsson ++), PDA and MP3 players markets existed already - so here the iPhone was a natural fit.