Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC

[thekeyring]

I think the issue is people would only pay $3k for something they really value. The first Mac I bought was a £999 13" MBP. Now I use it for work and know Mac really well, I have confidence when buying a more expensive machine for my work.

People use their phone all the time, so it's less of an ask to get people to pay a lot for it.

This is a new thing, most people don't know what it's for, or when you tell them need to see it for themselves.

 

[chachawpi]

my 65" LG OLED tv was $2000 and my surround sound setup is $1500. Granted I wish I didn't invest so much In those things now since I watch all my movies on the Vision Pro but its not all that crazy considering the theater size screen

Sure, but what if you wanted to watch the movie with other people? You wouldn't need multiple OLEDs and multiple sound systems. My TV is a Sony X900H which cost $999. I also have a Sonos Arc, Sonos Sub, and 2 Sonos Play 1:s. All in price was under $2500.

 

[gleepskip]

I know it's practically a game now to pile on the contempt for this product in every Vpro thread.

It's seemingly a game for AVP fans to justify their purchase in all of these threads. It's vastly overpriced and many continue to enumerate the reasons why.

 

[chachawpi]

But there is no killer app for this - I've seen these headset products come and go for years! Like 3D TV in the home...

Whereas the smartphone (Nokia, Sony Ericsson ++), PDA and MP3 players markets existed already - so here the iPhone was a natural fit.

No killer app? Another commenter here says you can watch movies on it.

 

[spaxxedout]

As an owner, I’m glad it’s got low market penetration right now. Many would be turned off by the current state of the experience. It needs a lot of refinement, and it’s AMAZING to see how much better visionOS 2 is in just 4 months.

One of the product’s biggest weaknesses is how it’s development was inturrupted by COVID. It’s obvious that it’s a Frankenstein device with some last minute changes. The first major iteration will be great.

 

[Rychiar]

Sure, but what if you wanted to watch the movie with other people? You wouldn't need multiple OLEDs and multiple sound systems. My TV is a Sony X900H which cost $999. I also have a Sonos Arc, Sonos Sub, and 2 Sonos Play 1:s. All in price was under $2500.

Oh it's totally dependent on use case but I live alone so it's ideal for me. And there area a lot of couples out there who don't watch the same things(like my parents) or families where ya might want to get away from kids programming or watch a big loud movie after the kids go to bed, or apartments where people can't blast surround sound. I'm sure there are a lot of situations where this thing is ideal for entertainment. Isolating yes, but I love that about it, I sleep great after using it and I watch movies and tv without distraction

 

[iMac The Knife]

Oh it's totally dependent on use case but I live alone so it's ideal for me. And there area a lot of couples out there who don't watch the same things(like my parents) or families where ya might want to get away from kids programming or watch a big loud movie after the kids go to bed, or apartments where people can't blast surround sound. I'm sure there are a lot of situations where this thing is ideal for entertainment. Isolating yes, but I love that about it, I sleep great after using it and I watch movies and tv without distraction

I will say this, if you enjoy watching movies on the AVP I could see it being worth the cost for sure. I am a huge movie buff, but I prefer my home theater over strapping something to my face. But, like you've mentioned, everyone has their own preference.

 

[NagasakiGG]

What? People with brain don't want to spend 4 grands on useless glasses? NO WAY?!

 

[bradman83]

I draw comparisons to the original Macintosh, which was a new way of working with computers, was underpowered and overpriced (equivalent to $7300 today), was laughed as as an expensive toy by people who were into "real" computers, and didn't have an obvious killer app yet (though MacWrite and MacPaint were both contenders). Apple sold about 250,000 of those the first year.

The Vision Pro in its current incarnation is highly flawed, but it's also a version 1.0 product just like the original Mac. As the technology that goes into it advances and becomes more commoditized we should hopefully see the price drop while developers figure out what to actually build for it.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

my 65" LG OLED tv was $2000 and my surround sound setup is $1500. Granted I wish I didn't invest so much In those things now since I watch all my movies on the Vision Pro but its not all that crazy considering the theater size screen

My 85" TV was $3500 back in 2020. We hardly use it, because the $2000.00 65" we also bought for the bedroom is the one we use the most at night. And the one my wife uses the most is the 42" Samsung TV in the kitchen, that costed less than $400 back then.
And I prefer my AVP when I'm watching movies or series by myself.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

I draw comparisons to the original Macintosh, which was a new way of working with computers, was underpowered and overpriced (equivalent to $7300 today), was laughed as as an expensive toy by people who were into "real" computers, and didn't have an obvious killer app yet (though MacWrite and MacPaint were both contenders). Apple sold about 250,000 of those the first year.

The Vision Pro in its current incarnation is highly flawed, but it's also a version 1.0 product just like the original Mac. As the technology that goes into it advances and becomes more commoditized we should hopefully see the price drop while developers figure out what to actually build for it.

And most flaws can be fixed by a software update.
The size and weight are not a big issue for me anymore.

 

[contacos]

Mine is collecting dust (thankfully I didn’t have to pay for it) just like my Meta Quest 3. The moment you get used to VR and don’t see it as anything special anymore, it’s like I’d rather just lay on my couch in any position I want without this thing on my head.

I wonder how long before devs stop developing for it or don’t even start with such a small user base. My company is reconsidering it but we also rely on the broadcast money of Germany

 

[klasma]

How can IDC say that Apple is unlikely to hit 500,000 sales, when Apple is unlikely to produce more than 400,000 units this year !! Doesn’t make sense !!

There was significant production in 2023 already ahead of the launch. Year of production differs from year of sale.

 

[GuruZac]

The $3500USD starting price made it DOA for many potential customers. It almost feels like an early beta product.

 

[GuruZac]

my 65" LG OLED tv was $2000 and my surround sound setup is $1500. Granted I wish I didn't invest so much In those things now since I watch all my movies on the Vision Pro but its not all that crazy considering the theater size screen

Watching Dune 2 with a high end VR headset must be pretty epic.

 

[Rychiar]

Watching Dune 2 with a high end VR headset must be pretty epic.

yup it was awesome, though I wish it was 3d like the first.

 

[ferratus]

I own one and I do think the device is incredibly impressive but I'm not surprised in any way that the sales would be low. Even if you take away the price issue, VR/AR headsets just don't sell well in general. Even the Meta Quest which is likely by far the most popular of these is not exactly mainstream.

In gaming at least, there's been a dislike & disdain of VR headsets since the beginning. Lots of people actively hate these things (and many also get sick wearing them, etc.).

I'm really curious to see what Apple does. I hope it sticks with the platform and makes a (much) more affordable product and maybe one day the market will shift.

I know a lot of people are saying the lack of content for it is one of the big issue but I actually disagree with that. Maybe it's mostly people who haven't tried it who say this or maybe it's just me, but I find that even a normal iPad app to be absolutely awesome on this thing. There's a lot of stuff I would improve on this device, starting with the price and the weight/comfort, but content really hasn't been an issue for me. Watching even "2D" content like YouTube or Netflix is quite amazing on it too. Sure, I would love more immersive video content because it's quite mind blowing, but content has never been an issue for me.

For me it's by far the best "iPad" I've ever bought. It's quite incredible to use and being able to fully use even iPad apps in full multitasking mode not restricted by a small screen & stage manager is awesome. The pairing with the Mac is also super cool.

But like many, I don't actually use mine all that often because my phone, my Mac or my iPad are actually already available and there's less friction to start a session with these devices.

In any case, very curious to see if the VisionOS platform is still a thing 5 years from now.

 

[klasma]

What "we" actually seem to want is the same overall product quality & FABS at a dramatically-lower price... only achievable- best I can tell- by Apple opting to dump their margin... which seems the LAST thing modern Apple Inc. would do.

Which is one reason why I don’t see a bright future for this product. Its limited appeal even at high hardware standards doesn’t square with the pricing it necessitates.

 

[brofkand]

Speaking purely for myself, I have zero interest in more Apple products with training wheels OSes.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

But there is no killer app for this - I've seen these headset products come and go for years! Like 3D TV in the home...

Whereas the smartphone (Nokia, Sony Ericsson ++), PDA and MP3 players markets existed already - so here the iPhone was a natural fit.

And what is that killer app going to be? A Game? A 3-D word processor?

The AVP is not about killer apps. Its killer feature is its environment, the endless canvas, eye and hand tracking and all other features not found on other devices. Adding to that the fact that it's also a computer.

 

[scrapesleon]

well at least we know sales in the mud

 

[AndreDC]

Has anyone had any real experience with the virtual desktop? That seems to be the only real use-case i would have for it? But not sure practically if it is any good.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

I will say this, if you enjoy watching movies on the AVP I could see it being worth the cost for sure. I am a huge movie buff, but I prefer my home theater over strapping something to my face. But, like you've mentioned, everyone has their own preference.

It's very hard to get the same level of immersion when watching a movie on an AVP than even at the iMAX Theater.
There are no Exit signs or other typical distractions. And the Screen size is huge!

 

[ArtOfWarfare]

The original iPhone was overpriced at $600, even though it was cheaper than the cheapest Mac at the time (the MacMini was $800 in 2007).

It's utterly insane that Apple thought they could launch a product that had far fewer features than almost anything else they sell, at a price higher than almost any other device they sell - the Mac Pro is the only device that's more expensive than the Vision Pro. Does anyone on earth think that the Vision Pro somehow slots between the Mac Studio or MacBook Pro and the Mac Pro, where Apple priced this?

If Apple wants to sell the Vision Pro at such an absurdly high price, they need it to be so good, so featureful that people opt to buy the Vision Pro instead of a MacBook Pro or a Mac Studio.

 

[nfl46]

Well, I love mine but I’m not surprised. It cost $3500+. Our economy isn’t the best right now so most can’t justify the price.