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Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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Apple Watch shipments will decline more than 25 percent year-over-year in comparison to 2015, according to a new research note issued by KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The wearable device sold an estimated 10.6 million units in eight months last year, but Kuo predicts that even with the launch of the Apple Watch 2, and a full twelve months of sales, the device's shipments will still come in at less than 7.5 million units in 2016.

applewatchbuiltinapps-800x217.jpg

The analyst describes an "immature wearable device market" and a few key lacking features of the first-generation Apple Watch -- iPhone independency, no killer app, limited battery life, etc. -- that will contribute to its overall sales decline prior to the launch of the second-generation version. Kuo believes that the Apple Watch 2 will enter mass production in the third quarter of 2016, in line with a fall launch alongside the iPhone 7, so its overall contribution to shipping numbers for the year is predicted to be limited.

Kuo's note also predicts some of the features of the next version of the Apple Watch, which is expected to adopt the same upgrade cycle as the iPhone. In essence, 2016's Apple Watch 2 will see some under-the-hood spec improvements and possibly minor form factor changes, while fans will have to wait until 2017 for a massively redesigned wearable from Apple. The similar design is one of Kuo's biggest reasons for declining Apple Watch shipments in 2016, despite even the uptick in sales the device could have during the holiday season.

The recent KGI Securities research note directly conflicts with a report from less-reliable Apple analyst Brian White, released last Friday, that predicted the Apple Watch 2 will not only launch in two to three months, but adopt a 40 percent slimmer case design. That launch window would put a reveal by Apple at WWDC in June with a launch following a few weeks later.

In either launch scenario, the Apple Watch 2 is rumored to have a bevy of feature improvements over its predecessor, including a FaceTime video camera, an expansion of its Wi-Fi capabilities, and new model tiers. Rumored casings of the next iteration of the device could possibly even incorporate new materials such as titanium, tungsten, palladium or platinum.

Article Link: Apple Watch 2 Expected to Focus on Internal Upgrades Rather Than External Changes, Launch in Late 2016
 

mroffbeat

macrumors member
Apr 3, 2010
39
68
Amsterdam
Apple Watch:
on Siri: Hey Siri (wait 10 seconds) set the time.. Hey Siri.. Hey.. set the timer for 5 minutes.. (wait 15 seconds)..done
on Apps: Starting up weather app.. shows old info.. wait for.. oh damn, does not work.. open other app
On glances: **** waiting... waiting ***

Apple watch needs more CPU power and faster response for it to work..
I still wear it every day though, notifications seem to do fine which i do love
 

McFreggle

macrumors 6502a
Jul 18, 2001
524
496
Dendermonde/Leuven, Belgium
Apple Watch:
on Siri: Hey Siri (wait 10 seconds) set the time.. Hey Siri.. Hey.. set the timer for 5 minutes.. (wait 15 seconds)..done
on Apps: Starting up weather app.. shows old info.. wait for.. oh damn, does not work.. open other app
On glances: **** waiting... waiting ***

Apple watch needs more CPU power and faster response for it to work..
I still wear it every day though, notifications seem to do fine which i do love
Siri isn't the fastest on the Watch, I agree. But it is capable of handling some backlog. Most of the times, I raise my wrist, I say "Hey Siri, set a timer for 15 minutes", I lower my arm, and I check back 10 seconds later if it succeeded. 99% of the times it did.

But I fully agree the watch needs more CPU power and way faster response. And they should fix the 1% of the times when it didn't work. And its Siri should be capable of doing all the things the phone Siri can do.
 

samcraig

macrumors P6
Jun 22, 2009
16,638
41,619
USA
Because people don't buy new smart watches every year. Because those that wanted one, most have purchased them. There is still a very viable market - but I don't think we're going to see "iPhone" numbers on the watch any time soon. Very respectable numbers within its category - but not as strong of a pillar.
 

Tymmz

macrumors 68000
Jan 6, 2005
1,539
451
I see where he is coming from. It's a new class of product and I am personally waiting to see what Watch 2.0 will look like. After years of iPhone update cycles I have a rough idea what the next iPhone will look like. When it comes to the watch though, it's completely new territory.

I don't want to buy a watch today and feel disappointed in September (?) when Watch 2.0 is released and it's immensely better speced and looking.
 

teslo

macrumors 6502a
Jun 9, 2014
929
599
at 40% thinner (reported next version) - plus whatever advancements to watch OS they make - i'd imagine they can keep a decent amount of interest going for this. i'm not a 'thinner is always better' guy at all - but the watch needs it. chunk factor is about an 8 out of 10, imo. it vaguely looks like an original iPhone with a strap.
 

0815

macrumors 68000
Jul 9, 2010
1,773
990
here and there but not over there
Apple Watch:
on Siri: Hey Siri (wait 10 seconds) set the time.. Hey Siri.. Hey.. set the timer for 5 minutes.. (wait 15 seconds)..done
on Apps: Starting up weather app.. shows old info.. wait for.. oh damn, does not work.. open other app
On glances: **** waiting... waiting ***

Apple watch needs more CPU power and faster response for it to work..
I still wear it every day though, notifications seem to do fine which i do love

Sadly this is very true and (almost) my only complaint. Battery life is fine, still have 40% when I go to bed after a long day.
 

mattopotamus

macrumors G5
Jun 12, 2012
14,016
4,648
Well, but there are people like me - waiting for the 2nd generation since the first iteration of prodcuts often are.. "Bad", or at least not polished.

I agree. I just think there are less people in that boat. I came from android wear/pebble watches and even the first gen apple watch blows those out of the water in terms of looks and polish. The whole "use apps on your watch" is silly. That is not what a smartwatch is good at. It should just focus on delivering notifications.
 

dannys1

macrumors 68040
Sep 19, 2007
3,100
5,556
UK
I don't care about iPhone independent use, I don't use any apps on it, and the battery life is practically too good. What I would like is for them to just turn on iBeacon usage for the watch - the single more obvious use for my always wearable accessory so I don't have to carry my phone around the smarthome everywhere - come on Apple, its not a complex feature! Let ME decide what to do with all that extra battery life.
 
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friedmud

macrumors 65816
Jul 11, 2008
1,327
1,085
I have Gen 1 and I will upgrade instantly as long as they do one thing: keep compatibility with the existing bands!

At this point I have more invested in bands than in the Watch itself. I would love to be able to grow a nice cache of bands and then just flip out a couple of hundred bucks every other year to upgrade the Watch.

Otherwise, I'll probably wait for Watch 3 so I can get some more use out of my bands.

We'll have to wait and see'
 

crsh1976

macrumors 6502a
Jun 13, 2011
987
720
Frankly this applies to the smartwatch niche as a whole, it was a fad and it's already dying. The industry is trying to find new ways to sell gizmos to the masses, and those plans are not all successful.

Unless Apple can make a new version of the watch that doesn't rely on the iPhone, has actual purpose, etc - then it may be an interesting boost. As is, if it's only thinner or adds a longer-lasting battery, it's really of no interest.
 
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