I don't think I am mistaken, has your research showed you how well apple is doing with that strategy? Or is that billion dollar industry just exist in the Ether? Admittedly, apple isn't trying to get an iPad/iPod/iPhone in every hand. That has never been the "strategy". So yes there is this wide market for the rest of the public that doesn't want the Apple experience. What I am saying is that if the Fire is to be compared to the iPad (which is apples and oranges) you have to take the whole picture to measure success to make them comparable. The decision to augment the Android system to an Apple Like closed system that Amazon is doing is in my opinion the best Idea I have seen to clean up the Android experience for the user and developers, but for any platform to succeed you have to have developers. No developers no platform. Amazon and or Google have the best shot at creating this. More power to them. Good Luck they will need it.
First: You may think the world is flat for all i care. Changes very little in the end.
Second: No, i have yet to do any real research on iOS in particular. I have read research by others touching on it though. Whats your point?
Third: What strategy? The platform strategy? Yes. Apple is indeed successful. That is not to say however, that one needs to release a phone to be successful - which was your original point.
Fourth: The Fire is not trying to be an iPad, nor do Amazon need to release a phone to compete with Apple. Yes, there is more than single devices to consider - but that goes both ends. The Amazon ecosystem is more than the Fire too - way more, in fact.
Fifth: As i see it, the best part of picking Android is a) stable, free, codebase. b) existing developer community to leverage for its own gain.
Sixth: A multi-sided market, for obvious reasons, need actors on every "side". However, given the price, the ecosystem already in place, the ease of leveraging on a thriving developer community etc. that will - most likely - not be much of a problem. Further, most of the apps it will support (that are thought of today) will be ready at launch - in essence, giving them a flying start (and further aiding consumer adoption, by adding to the value proposition).
Seventh: Google, and in turn Amazon, have already created this. Android already have a thriving developer community, and most of these will probably see Fire as a great opportunity to increase their revenue streams. With the Fire being built on the same core, cross-platform development efforts will be severly reduced too, benefiting all parties involved (Google, Amazon, Developers, Users).
Ergo: I doubt they need any luck at all. To paraphrase Vinnie Jones from a fantastic swedish commercial: Luck [will have] nothing to do with it.
Only time will tell, but my impression thus far is that Amazon pretty much nailed it. Hats off.
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So, how may consumers are using the Amazon Music Store exclusively? I can import my all my music from Amazon to my iTunes easily. I have the kindle app. I have Netflix and Amazon Prime (not on the iPad but I haven't missed that option on my iOS devices). So.... What experience is the fire giving me that I can't get elsewhere with many many more options? What is important is that in this market is that a stand alone device as an island isn't going to cut it. Consumers are assuming that there information is easily accessed. If the fire is to succeed then it has to do more than Movies, Books, and limited music. Other wise it will be relegated to a novelty niche electronic dust collector. I hope it does well. I also think that the next phase of the fire will go that direction, if it can keep the fire burning
What is it that you expect not to find on your Fire, that you see as crucial to have easy access too? (i.e. not having to use the web).