It has grossed that much so far, yes.
"...it needs to gross at least half-a-billion worldwide in order to break even theatrically, even if Apple is relying on its theatrical run as marketing for its eventual release on streaming"
Actually no we don’t know the exact figure. In terms of production cost, remember there are reports that Apple received $40 million in product placement fees. Also tax rebates/credits on film production in various territories.
And on the revenue side, it isn’t straight from theatrical to streaming - their are several PVOD release windows (premium rental, standard rental, purchase, promotional), and even physical, cable, and broadcast rights licensing (yes its still a thing even for streamers if they choose).
Traditionally the post-theatrical release windows usually more than cover a popular film’s P&A budget (“prints & advertising” which in the digital age usually just means advertising).
But in terms of long term profitability there are two other major considerations for Apple:
1. How many extra subscribers does it bring to AppleTV+. For every million subscribers Apple brings to its service, that is $100 million in extra annual revenue, all of which is pure profit margin for the service.
2. Does it kick start a franchise? If a film is popular enough to start a franchise (a series of related films) it’s worth is a lot higher than its initial box office performance, as for franchises the follow up movies generally are far more profitable than the first one (due to a built in audience).