It's a fair price for a phone released today. If they're still going to be selling it in 2 years time; then it'd be a stretch to say it's worthwhile.
If they follow previous years trends, then in 7 months when the iphone 17 comes out, the 16 & 15 will get discounted $100 (though the 15 will likely just be outright discontinued like the 14) A $100 price gap between the 16E and 16 is pretty marginal in value.
Next year when the iphone 18 comes out, (assuming they're still selling the 16E) and the 17 gets a price drop, then the $100 price gap between the 16E and the 17 will be laughable.
Of course this predicates that the 17 & 18s will get released at the current price point, which after this morning is looking a lot less likely. I feel like they're more likely to up the price of the 17 by $100-150 which may justify the price gap to the 16E
Personally I think iPhone Air will come in at $999 this fall and lead to a price hike of the iPhone 17 Pro to at least $1099. That could be the end of the changes (probably not) but to keep it simple I will assume the iPhone 17 price does not change and present this hypothetical scenario:
Fall 2025
iPhone 17 - $799
iPhone 16 - $699
iPhone 16e - $599
iPhone 15 (discontinued, would have been $599)
Fall 2026
iPhone 18 - $799
iPhone 17 - $699
iPhone 16 - $599
iPhone 16e - $499
Spring 2027 (maybe)
iPhone 18 - $799
iPhone 17 - $699
iPhone 16 - $599
iPhone SE - $499
I'm not saying this is right. I think the prices may be wrong from Fall 2025 onward (aka all of it), just demonstrating a simple scenario where the iPhone 16e effectively becomes and replaces the iPhone 15 in the lineup and everything can just continue as normal. I agree with you that the iPhone 15 may be discontinued next time it's due for a price drop. Which may or may not be this fall depending on iPhone 17 pricing.
The iPhone 16e presents no pricing issues unless we introduce assumptions that make it an issue. There's only a problem if a) we assume $599 is Apple's price floor and b) that the 16e's price won't change. There's no reason to believe either.
First, all the rumor sites said Apple's target was $499 with extreme confidence. I called BS on this phone being $499, but there could still be something real about that number (just not this phone and this year). I think there's no $499 iPhone right now because of two Apple mishaps, more shortly. Second, the 16e is not called the SE. Apple did that on purpose, yet it seems that we can't shake the assumption that its lifecycle will match the previous SE generations. There's no reason to make that assumption. It's literally not an SE. It has a number, so like other numbered (non-pro) phones it is not unreasonable to expect annual price drops and a fairly predictable discontinuation date. We should not expect it to hang out at the bottom of the lineup for years on end with no price changes. At the risk of repeating myself too much, it's not an SE.
So why isn't there a $499 iPhone? This is my guess. Apple made two mistakes/issues they couldn't resolve.
1) Apple transitioned to USB-C one year too late. I don't know why, but they screwed up. They were forced to discontinue the iPhone 14 one year ahead of schedule in Europe, and just decided to pull the bandaid off everywhere else as well. The iPhone 14 should be on the market (for $599) until the iPhone 17 launches this fall. It isn't on the market because Apple didn't ship it (or update later versions) with USB-C.
2) Apple planned an A17 (with 8 GB ram and AI support) for the iPhone 15, but shipped it with an A16 (6 GB RAM, no IA support). The iPhone 15 Pro had an A17 Pro SOC and no device to date has an A17 SOC. The process node apparently had yield issues, but I can only speculate on why there was been no A17.
The iPhone 16e exists to address the problem in 2 (iPhone 15 has no AI support when Apple planned for it to have it), and it's priced at $599 to address 1 (the iPhone 14 can't fill the $599 price point because it's missing USB-C).
Ok. But if 1) and 2) were resolved we'd still only have a $599 iPhone 14 and $699 iPhone 15, where's the $499 iPhone?
Simple answer is that the $499 SE4 was a real project, but because of 1) and 2) Apple had to redirect those resources to making a higher performing 16e. That explains why a phone numbered 16 ended up in an iPhone 14's case.