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Apple's First Foldable Displays Nearing Mass Production

Following the success of the Dynamic Island feature around the sensor pill cutout, I propose a “Dynamic Crease.” By the way, I conducted a quick trademark search, and it seems to be available! You’re welcome, Apple.
 
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Farquar said:
Apple firmly disagrees with you. Also your math is horribly flawed.
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No, they don't.

Apple ships like 23 million Macs a year. Only the MacBook Pro sells more than 10 million a year, and the MacBook Air is the only other Mac that sells more than a million a year. (MacBook Air sells somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5 million devices a year). Do you think Apple considers the MacBook Air to be an unsuccessful product? What about the iMac? Mac mini?

And no, the math isn't flawed.

2% of 247M = 4,940,000 (~5M)
5M x $2,000 = $10,000,000,000 ($10B)

Average sales price of iPhone is $1,090 as of September. And that's the highest it's ever been, in a launch quarter. Usually it's below $1,000. But let's stick with it.

5M x $1,090 = $5,450,000,000 ($5.5B). But again, I suspect the average fold buyer will be a Pro/Pro Max user. And again, most won't be paying $1999, but more like $2,200. So I'm going to bump up both numbers in the math below.

If 5 million people shift from a $1,400 Pro/Pro Max to a $2,200 foldable, that's $800 incremental average selling price per unit on 5M units, adding roughly $4B in revenue. Anyone upgrading from a non pro phone, or coming from Android will result in even higher revenue than that.

And honestly I think 5M units is on the low end. Samsung sells 5-7M foldable a year, and I'd expect Apple to do better than Samsung given the demographics of Apple users. Personally, I suspect they'll sell closer to 10 million foldable iPhones.

The interesting thing (for me, at least) is to see whether or not they keep up the number of sales (whatever it turns out being) in future years, or if people who buy them decide "the extra functionality of a foldable isn't worth the extra price).
 
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If this ever drops in price akin to what the current drop and deals on the Air are, I might and might just buy it. Slowly but surely I’m opening up to the idea of fold, just not at full price. 😛
 
omenatarhuri said:
Touch ID tends to fail in the winter when fingers are unrecognizable due to wear and dryness.
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Touch ID fails 100% of the time when I look at the device and it doesn't unlock. Touch ID fails in general by requiring a deliberate, manual gesture. It wasn't so bad when it was built in to the Home Button that you had to press anyway. Awkwardly pressing the side button that you never have to press to wake or unlock your device is a travesty of UX.
 
surferfb said:
No, they don't.

Apple ships like 23 million Macs a year. Only the MacBook Pro sells more than 10 million a year, and the MacBook Air is the only other Mac that sells more than a million a year. (MacBook Air sells somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5 million devices a year). Do you think Apple considers the MacBook Air to be an unsuccessful product? What about the iMac? Mac mini?

And no, the math isn't flawed.

2% of 247M = 4,940,000 (~5M)
5M x $2,000 = $10,000,000,000 ($10B)

Average sales price of iPhone is $1,090 as of September. And that's the highest it's ever been, in a launch quarter. Usually it's below $1,000. But let's stick with it.

5M x $1,090 = $5,450,000,000 ($5.5B). But again, I suspect the average fold buyer will be a Pro/Pro Max user. And again, most won't be paying $1999, but more like $2,200. So I'm going to bump up both numbers in the math below.

If 5 million people shift from a $1,400 Pro/Pro Max to a $2,200 foldable, that's $800 incremental average selling price per unit on 5M units, adding roughly $4B in revenue. Anyone upgrading from a non pro phone, or coming from Android will result in even higher revenue than that.

And honestly I think 5M units is on the low end. Samsung sells 5-7M foldable a year, and I'd expect Apple to do better than Samsung given the demographics of Apple users. Personally, I suspect they'll sell closer to 10 million foldable iPhones.

The interesting thing (for me, at least) is to see whether or not they keep up the number of sales (whatever it turns out being) in future years, or if people who buy them decide "the extra functionality of a foldable isn't worth the extra price).
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The iPhone mini garnered 2-3% of sales, and the iPhone Plus around 10-11%. The iPhone Air somewhere around 3-6%. What Apple has shown is that as far as an iPhone is concerned, performance matters, or it will be replaced with something else.

Those products performed poorly despite allegedly being exactly what people wanted. And they performed poorly while costing less than half of what this thing is going to cost.

And no, Samescum is not shipping 5 million comparable devices. That number includes devices costing between $999 and $1999, which is pathetically low given that. Over $2k, its roughly 1-2 million.

And thats probably a reasonable expectation for Apple too. 1-2 million units per year over 2 years, before the thing is discontinued. I find it very unlikely that the form factor stays around, unless there are some magical technological breakthroughs that allow it to be more appealing, and more affordable.
 
Farquar said:
The iPhone mini garnered 2-3% of sales, and the iPhone Plus around 10-11%. The iPhone Air somewhere around 3-6%. What Apple has shown is that as far as an iPhone is concerned, performance matters, or it will be replaced with something else.
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And it sucks.

They now sell like 3-4 variations of the same bloody thing.

It's totally ridiculous.
 
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Farquar said:
The iPhone mini garnered 2-3% of sales, and the iPhone Plus around 10-11%. The iPhone Air somewhere around 3-6%. What Apple has shown is that as far as an iPhone is concerned, performance matters, or it will be replaced with something else.

Those products performed poorly despite allegedly being exactly what people wanted. And they performed poorly while costing less than half of what this thing is going to cost.

And no, Samescum is not shipping 5 million comparable devices. That number includes devices costing between $999 and $1999, which is pathetically low given that. Over $2k, its roughly 1-2 million.

And thats probably a reasonable expectation for Apple too. 1-2 million units per year over 2 years, before the thing is discontinued. I find it very unlikely that the form factor stays around, unless there are some magical technological breakthroughs that allow it to be more appealing, and more affordable.
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A product selling more than twice the ASP of the "typical" iPhone is going to have significantly more leeway than the thing selling around ASP (Air, Plus) or below ASP (mini). And that's before you get into the "halo product" advantages of having a super high-end and existing offerring that makes your previously most expensive offerings look cheaper in comparison.

Again, I don't think this is going to sell like gangbusters, but I suspect the "not a flop" threshold is way, way, lower than you think it is. At the end of the day Apple doesn't care about units sold but revenue produced.

But I guess we'll just have to wait and see who is right.
 
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Not to jump in the middle of the debate above, but I would add that unlike the Vision Pro, we are talking about an iPhone.

A very expensive niche, interesting, halo, type of product that is an iPhone has a way way better chance out there than something like the Vision Pro.

I think there will be a reasonably healthy market for a iPhone Fold, even if it's quite spendy.
 
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Macalway said:
Two words: Apple Care+

Or it could be 3 words…
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2 words: AppleCare One.

If I can use that for it I’ll be good with covering my iPhone, Apple Watch Ultra and AVP. With the price of it I’m pretty much getting paid to insure my devices.
 
turbineseaplane said:
I've got this bad feeling that, having already killed off my beloved Mini iPhones, they are now going to kill off my beloved iPad Mini and tell everyone to "buy a Fold".

😔
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An iPad Mini and iPhone Fold are very different beasts. One is wildly expensive and will have a subpar display while the other will be affordable and be well suited for usage with an Apple Pencil.
 
The "fold" would be the first product Apple is planning to make that I would not buy on opening day. The hinge technology is not an issue but the screen bending multiple times a day will be the basis for the useful life of this device.

Unlike most other Apple products, the "fold" has a designed in failure point. That fold in the screen will determine the useful life of this iPhone. I think the question of failure is not "if" but "when".

My regular iPhone 17 Pro Max coupled with my MacBook Neo gives me portable screen with keyboard and access to wireless on my cell phone's hotspot. These two product lines have proven technology that have had a very low mechanical failure record.
 
Farquar said:
The iPhone mini garnered 2-3% of sales, and the iPhone Plus around 10-11%. The iPhone Air somewhere around 3-6%. What Apple has shown is that as far as an iPhone is concerned, performance matters, or it will be replaced with something else.

Those products performed poorly despite allegedly being exactly what people wanted. And they performed poorly while costing less than half of what this thing is going to cost.

And no, Samescum is not shipping 5 million comparable devices. That number includes devices costing between $999 and $1999, which is pathetically low given that. Over $2k, its roughly 1-2 million.

And thats probably a reasonable expectation for Apple too. 1-2 million units per year over 2 years, before the thing is discontinued. I find it very unlikely that the form factor stays around, unless there are some magical technological breakthroughs that allow it to be more appealing, and more affordable.
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Solid ChatGPT response!
 
surferfb said:
A phone priced this high isn't expected to sell 30 million devices. Even if it's 2% of iPhone sales we're still talking billions in additional revenue.

2% of iPhone sales (slight less than 250 million phones last year) would come to roughly 5,000,000 iPhones. Even if every single fold sold was the $1999 model, that'd be $10B in revenue. Even if you assume everyone is coming from a Pro/Pro Max phone, we're talking about 2-3 billion in additional iPhone revenue.

In reality, the average sales price of iPhone is around $1000-1100 (and sure, most people buying this phone are probably already buying the Pro/Pro Max, but Apple is also going to sell a lot of the higher-capacity folds as well), so we're actually talking significantly more than $2-3 billion in additional revenue.

Long way of saying even at 2% of iPhone sales it's not going to "flop". It's going to be a niche phone; most people can't afford to spend $2k+ on a phone. Not every device Apple makes needs to sells tens of millions to be a successful product.
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Apple has ordered 20 million units so guessing they expect it in that range.
 
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MacRumors said:


Advanced display panels destined for Apple's first foldable iPhone are reportedly nearing mass production.

Foldable-iPhone-2023-Feature-Iridescent-1.jpg

The Weibo leaker known as "Instant Digital" today said that Samsung Display is set to begin mass production of OLED panels for the first foldable iPhone in May 2026. Meanwhile, the user "Fixed Focus Digital" claims that the foldable iPhone's screen may be flatter than many of the existing foldable devices currently on sale, suggesting that Apple has largely solved the crease problem.

Previous reports have variously described the Samsung panel as as being "virtually crease free" and having "no crease at all." Bloomberg's Mark Gurman claims that the new display technology Apple is using reduces the crease without eliminating it entirely, but the result is "not perfect."

Rumors suggest that Apple's first foldable iPhone will feature a 7.8-inch crease-free inner display, a 5.5-inch cover display, ‌Touch ID‌, two rear cameras, the A20 chip, and the "C2" modem. It is expected to launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and ‌iPhone 18‌ Pro Max in the fall. Production will almost certainly ramp up as we approach that time of year.

Article Link: Apple's First Foldable Displays Nearing Mass Production
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Apple’s patience to release their first folding phone to get the best quality ever folding phone is proven to be a gold standard for producing an excellent quality folding phone. Patience is truly golden. Looking forward to getting the best folding phone ever made!
 
hugogogo2003 said:
I hope they do a much better job than Samsung's own devices. It looked nice on videos, but having seen their latest foldable in store the other day, they look so cheap when opened, it really looks and feels like a cheap piece of flexible plastic. It's not premium in any way, the screen itself doesn't even look nice compared to an iPhone screen, viewing angles are bad, etc.
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Apple will. Their products have excellent quality.
 
Rayansb said:
Thank God for Touch ID. I have to say I'm probably more excited about Touch ID than anything else.
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Touch ID, Face ID or any biometric ID type should not matter as its function is for a device security. Sure, we have a preference. In the end of the day, the only concern should be if our device is safe.
 
Yourbigpalal83 said:
If this comes in at around 2000 dollars im all in, despite the fact i'm coming from the 16 pro max, i lose a camera, FaceID and the camera control button (which sucks anyway, i only use it to open the camera, and i could do that with the other button by the volume anyway). So yeah, not crazy about going back to TouchID but if it makes sense and is egonomic in the hand, im all for it. (I hate touch id on the ipads though, never feels right and its so much better having face id on my M4 Pro).

THAT BEING SAID...how durrible is this thing going to be? Am i going to have to put this in a ziplock bag when i go for a walk on the beach or when it rains outside? Is the inner screen going to scratch and dent if i dont trim my fingernails daily? Will their eventually be a crease 3-6 months to a year down the road with mutiple openings and closings a day?

Like duribility is a big thing for me. I've never scratched a screen or camera lense, or even the body of my iphones because the first thing i do is buy a screen protector and the best case i can afford.

But this...you cant put a screen protector on the inner display. Im not sure how much a case is going to protect this thing when it has mechanical moving parts. Simple laws of physics. The more moving parts in anything, the more points of eventual failure you have.

Buttons wear out, hinges wear out, etc. Im highly curious about the eventual Jerry Rig Everything Stress test. The Google Pixel Folds for the past few years all break in half when you fold them a certain way but not many people buy them. If this bends or breaks in a simular way, it will make bendgate and antenna gate look weak by comparison.

Im excited for this device, truly, but i also want to know will my 2000-2500 dollar phone last a full year until the next one intact with normal every day use? I think thats a valid concern here.
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The concern is valid. I trust Apple has been considering all the concerns when planning the product. It has been taking a while for Apple to produce their first folding to get it right.
 
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VulchR said:
Sounds like that is not possible with a foldable screen. I still believe that bendable screen make more sense for static curved wearable displays, like something worn on a forarem, and foldables should be two flat screens joined by an ultra-precise hinge. Just my two cents...
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We are going to see how the screen quality would be when the product arrives. I trust Apple has calculated all possible scenarios.
 
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