Apple's First M3 MacBooks Coming Next Year, Claims Shipment Forecast

[DavidSchaub]

I find it funny that all Apple Silicon stories seem to be steeped in this underlying idea that Apple will ever update Macs on an annual basis, or that Apple won't leave products un-updated.

The A*X / M* chips have almost always been on an ~18 month cycle, and while Apple probably wouldn't mind if that was a bit faster, I doubt they have any interest in investing huge amounts of money just to make that happen. This may change in the future, but for now: Expecting an 18 month cycle is just reasonable.

What impresses me is that the M*Pro/Max/Ultra might also stick to an ~18 month cycle, which is honestly faster than I expected.

As for Apple product lines not getting updated when possible... That has been normal behaviour from Apple for the last few decades. I suspect it usually a combination of: Apple wants to make a bigger change and doesn't want to bother making an intermediate product in the mean time, or Apple just doesn't see enough RoI difference for making the updated product.

I see no problem with Apple generally giving us ~10% to ~20% CPU/GPU performance improvements per generation. Those are absolutely respectable numbers; and if you upgrade every ~3-6 years, you'll get a great new machine.

As for M3, I definitely hope we finally see a base SKU RAM increase, as that is woefully needed:

 

[picpicmac]

I really don't understand why it was ever even published

Because rumor mills need to mill or they are not mills.

 

[picpicmac]

As for M3, I definitely hope we finally see a base SKU RAM increase, as that is woefully needed

It's one reason I am holding off on replacing my very old iMac.

The M1 iMac was (final stage) designed and pinned down (as far as SKU specs) during the pandemic and when there was a serious IC shortage. Same for the rest of the M1 rollouts.

With recent drops in SDRAM and NAND pricing, this coming generation of new Macs should be adjusted as far as base specs.

 

[Anglagard]

It is going to be a lackluster Xmas for Apple.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Good. Push out these M3 series chips long enough so that you can put one in the Vision Pro. We need hardware ray tracing on that for it to survive in the gaming industry.

Yeah, if it weren’t for the ray tracing on the Switch, it wouldn’t be selling anywhere near as well as it does.

 

[CloudsNeverDie]

With recent drops in SDRAM and NAND pricing, this coming generation of new Macs should be adjusted as far as base specs.

They need to adjust the base storage specs and upgrade pricing too. You can buy a 2TB M.2 Gen4 SSD for $100 now. Meanwhile Apple is still charging $800 for it.

 

[giggles]

The iMac is still M1. Are you suggesting Apple will upgrade the iMac to an M2 this late so they can start moving other products in their line up to M3?

I meant ACTUAL products in the ACTUAL pipeline.

iMac M2 is not an actual product in the actual pipeline, the iMac will skip the M2 generation.

Vision Pro M2 is an actual product in the actual pipeline, and while a niche product in terms of shipped units it's pretty important in the grand scheme of things.

The M3 being out would taint the "shiny new product" feel of the M2 Vision Pro.

 

[DavidSchaub]

The M3 being out would taint the "shiny new product" feel of the M2 Vision Pro.

I don't grok this.

The Vision Pro is special because it is the Vision Pro. As long as the SoC "works", that's fine.

1% of the market for it is going to care if the Macs have M3 while the Vision Pro has M2. Apple will reasonable decide that they don't care about that 1% of the market's opinion.

 

[coolfactor]

Reads like word salad.

for most of its notebook lineups

"most" of its "lineups"?

A lineup is the entire range of notebooks, just one lineup, and the entire lineup is powered by Apple-designed M-series processors.

Hard to trust anything he says when he can't even get simple details right.

 

[poematik13]

Future of the imac line is probably cancelled at this point.

 

[Mr. Dee]

So why couldn't they just do a drop in upgrade for the iMac with M2 instead of letting it languish on M1?

 

[Sir_Macs_A_Lot]

Not sure why everyone would be so excited for a very minor spec update with negligible differences in speed.

Because a lot of people will buy the newest version of something...even if it's only slightly better. Plus, I need the M3 MBA to exist so that the price gets slashed on the M2 MBA.

 

[DavidSchaub]

So why couldn't they just do a drop in upgrade for the iMac with M2 instead of letting it languish on M1?

We have no reason to believe the M2 SoC is "pin compatible" to be dropped in. So it probably requires building a new motherboard as well.

Even beyond hardware engineering, every update has overhead:
- product management
- manufacturing pipeline
- pipeline management converting the old gen to the new gen
- testing verification
- etc, etc, etc...

Nothing's free

 

[ttyRazor]

No M3 before the last M2 product (Vision Pro) is out.

Doesn't take a genius.

Or the actual shipping Vision Pro gets bumped to the M3 and the M2 only exists in dev kits. Even if the Vision Pro ships first, it’d be too close to an M3 release unless it’s much further out than rumors suggest.

 

[hugodrax]

Gonna wait till the M7 before I upgrade my M1 Ultra Macstudio.

 

[soyazul]

Gonna wait till the M7 before I upgrade my M1 Ultra Macstudio.

I usually change my Macs every 6 years

2024 will take my 2018 MacBook Pro

 

[Ursadorable]

Eager to see how AI generation is under the M3, as it's terrible under the M1 and M2.. and I'm eager to jump back into the Apple eco-system. But not a laptop, so I'll have to wait until a) find out how it performs, and b) in a desktop form factor. I may just end up biting the bullet and keeping the PC rig for AI and gaming, and the Mac for everything else. But it sucks having to switch back and forth.

 

[jecowa]

I am waiting for the M3 too for AV1, but also because of the rumored bump in RAM memory, from base 8GB and upgraded 16GB, to base 12GB and upgraded 24GB.

If this chips are coming in 2024, they are probably manufactured in the N3E process, but if they come with the N3B process and the architecture of the A17 Pro, and the performance jump is in line with the A17, with higher power consumption… maybe I’ll wait for the M4 generation. We’ll see.

N3B is supposed to be short-lived. Apple is always first in line for new nodes, so I imagine M3 will be on N3E next year.

 

[seek3r]

For about 98% of use cases…If you already have an M1 or better, you are fine. If you have an Intel, upgrade now.

Depends on how old, my last gen 2020 Intel MBA will prob tide me over until at least M3 next year, maybe M4

 

[Mr. Dee]

We have no reason to believe the M2 SoC is "pin compatible" to be dropped in. So it probably requires building a new motherboard as well.

Even beyond hardware engineering, every update has overhead:
- product management
- manufacturing pipeline
- pipeline management converting the old gen to the new gen
- testing verification
- etc, etc, etc...

Nothing's free

So why couldn't they build a compatible motherboard for an M2 iMac? I am sure Apple doesn't just rest on their laurels. Case in point, they launched M1 MacBooks with the old chassis design, which suggested, they had this in planning as far back as the earliest MacBooks with Touchbar and Bridge OS. That goes back 4 years before the M1 MacBook Pro. And they likely were engineering it from 2015. So, I am sure their roadmap when they were developing the M1 iMac was, for the M2 we are gonna need to redesign mother for the iMac.

 

[FriendlyMackle]

I would be coming from a late 2008 white Macbook lol

WOW. Your upgrade should be spectacular!

 

[Populus]

WOW. Your upgrade should be spectacular!

Yep. I wonder if there’s someone upgrading from a Power PC Mac to an ARM Mac.

 

[FriendlyMackle]

Almost certainly it'll have hardware ray tracing and AV1 support, which is something M1/M2 can't do.

If you care about that is up to you, but they are meaningful improvements. I have been holding out for M3 specifically because of AV1.

So what will be the benefits of AV1 (and Ray Tracing) to the normal user?

 

[Populus]

So what will be the benefits of AV1 (and Ray Tracing) to the normal user?

AV1: lower power and data consumption when streaming video on demand.

Ray Tracing: only if you’re a gamer, in which case you’ll probably have a a gaming PC and/or a videogame console.

 

[Woochoo]

For about 98% of use cases…If you already have an M1 or better, you are fine. If you have an Intel, upgrade now.

That's true for most users, but if you are considering on pulling the trigger now for an M1/M2 I'd wait. Considering M3 is most probably based on A17 (not A16), if we extrapolate the improvements of the A17 Pro vs the A14 that the M1 is based on, then the M3 is getting pretty close to M1Pro/Max in CPU therms. Add to that better efficiency of 3nm vs the 5nm of M1, AV1 decoding, and probably we might see some raytracing in M3 GPU (unless they make it exclusive to the Pro/Max/Ultra).

And even then if you don't get the M3, you can still find M1 and M2 MBA for cheaper than now once it launches.