Apple's Foldable iPhone Could Lose Almost $1,300 in Value in First Year, Study Suggests

[MacRumors]

A new resale value study suggests that a $2,000 foldable iPhone could lose as much as $1,292 of its value within its first 12 months on the market, based on current foldable depreciation trends.

The estimate comes from SellCell, which analyzed the 12-month resale performance of flagship smartphones from Apple, Samsung, Google, Motorola, and OnePlus. The site found that foldable smartphones lose an average of 64.6% of their value within a year, the worst depreciation rate of any smartphone category, compared with 55.3% for traditional smartphones.

SellCell calculates that foldable phone owners lose $997.69 on average after 12 months, compared with $605.32 for owners of traditional smartphones, a gap of $392.37. Foldables retain just 35.4% of their launch value after a year, versus 44.7% for non-folding phones.

Apple is widely rumored to be preparing its first foldable iPhone, expected to be called the "iPhone Ultra," for launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max in fall 2026, with a price of around $2,000.

Using that rumored price point, SellCell modeled what a foldable iPhone's resale value might look like after a year if it depreciated at the average rate seen across today's foldables, landing at around $708 after 12 months. This would represent a loss of roughly $1,292.

SellCell notes Apple has historically outperformed competitors on resale value. The iPhone 16 lineup retained 51.5% of its value after 12 months, the strongest of any major manufacturer in the study, ahead of OnePlus (46.8%), Google (40.8%), Samsung (39.5%), and Motorola (24.5%). If a foldable iPhone matched the iPhone 16 lineup's depreciation rate instead, SellCell estimates it could be worth around $1,030 after a year, over $300 less depreciation than a typical foldable.

Real-world depreciation would likely land closer to Apple's existing figures. The base iPhone 16 retained 51.4% of value after a year and the 256GB iPhone 16 Pro Max retained 56.4%, though even at those rates, the total loss on a $2,000 device would still come out to roughly $1,000 over 12 months.

Article Link: Apple's Foldable iPhone Could Lose Almost $1,300 in Value in First Year, Study Suggests

 

[Zorn]

Well yeah... the only point of comparison is Android phones, which always lose their value much more quickly than iPhones. It doesn't help that they might get one software update at best (2 years late) despite endless empty promises from the device makers. The iPhone Ultra is likely to be supported by software updates for a long time compared to a Samsung or OnePlus foldable.

 

[jayducharme]

It’s like buying a car; when you drive it off the lot it loses 50% of its value.

 

[mikebenton]

I suspect this phone is going to be like Apple Vision. It's a cool concept, but it would be hard for most folks to justify the cost. Sure...there are plenty of people who have a couple thousand just laying around. However, if this thing is going to priced where it's like getting an iPhone Pro Max and a iPad Pro together...that's just silly.

 

[963852741]

Water is wet lads. You heard it here first.

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

I look at any tech as a depreciating asset. I’m not overly concerned about making more than 50% back on a tech tool I’m using as a daily driver.

 

[Smartuser]

Hi, I'm running a used car business and I think all the cars you're offering me for trade-ins are worth only pennies. When I sell them, they're worth 95% of the retail price for a new one.

 

[gnomeisland]

As an iPhone mini user who wishes he could setup an iPad as his "primary" device, this just gives me more incentive to wait another year. I like the idea of an iPhone mini that turns into an iPad mini, I just can't stomach paying double for the cost of owning two separate devices.

 

[epox999]

I only know one person who ever got a folding phone, it was deeply discounted at the Verizon store, and they absolutely hated it, the folding screen was a gimmick and the fold line in the screen was obvious and visually unavoidable. If you carry one of these in your pocket, watch out for debris and grit that can get into the screen folding area.

 

[xnu]

It's been a decade waiting, I am buying one. I will revel in the regret.

 

[963852741]

I only know one person who ever got a folding phone, it was deeply discounted at the Verizon store, and they absolutely hated it, the folding screen was a gimmick and the fold line in the screen was obvious and visually unavoidable. If you carry one of these in your pocket, watch out for debris and grit that can get into the screen folding area.

It looks cool in a Star Trek episode, but that's pretty much it.

 

[bLackjackj]

Depreciating an unreleased product? What’s the tech world come to Lol 🙄🤦‍♂️

 

[Kelly the Dude]

I question any solid figure of how much I could loose on an iPhone being derived from Android sales. Kind of a bad comparison. It stands to reason, however, a foldable with more moving parts that accrue wear and tear will depreciate quicker than a non-foldable. Common sense.

 

[Astuces iOS]

Who will even buy this... what's the point? How can you justify the purchase?

 

[Taq'aix]

This has Apple Vision Pro written all over it. People will rush to buy it, then return it once reality sets in.

The price is simply too high. Mark. My. Words.

 

[The Game 161]

good reason to use the upgrade program

 

[tekcor]

I’ve never once seen anyone with a folding phone. Of course, maybe that’s because they all suck and Apple has finally cracked the secret. But I have no intention of buying one of these. It seems like another thing tech bros tell us we want, but nobody is actually asking for.

 

[The Game 161]

comparing a phone with a headset is always stupid.

 

[klm9210]

The concept of a folding smartphone is still too corny to me. Maybe that will change in the future

 

[hare_star]

Extra point of failure.
Extra price.
Extra source of app UI problems.
If I want a bigger screen than my 17 Pro Max I simply switch to my 12,9 iPad Pro. Or just my desktop PC with 27" 4K screen if I don't need movement.
Maybe someone has a use case for this. I don't.

 

[I7guy]

I didn’t realize people bought phones based on projected resale value.

 

[vegetassj4]

Only 1292, for me it would be 3000. I miss the old 'foldable phones'

 

[Zorn]

This has Apple Vision Pro written all over it. People will rush to buy it, then return it once reality sets in.

The price is simply too high. Mark. My. Words.

Hard disagree here. $1999 for a phone that we most likely use dozens of times per day is much different than $3,499 for something that you might occasionally use when alone at home. Many people will also be selling iPads once this comes out (I will), which factors into the total cost as well.

 

[The Game 161]

Hard disagree here. $1999 for a phone that we most likely use dozens of times per day is much different than $3,499 for something that you might occasionally use when alone at home. Many people will also be selling iPads once this comes out (I will), which factors into the total cost as well.

yeah comparing a headset which last 2 hours and always need to be near a charger with a phone which can be used anywhere is such an stupid comparison

the foldable will be better in every use case aside from cameras compared to pro max. i think people will love it if they can get over the cost.

 

[Wahlstrm]

The novelty of folding phones died out 5(?) years ago, so the target audience are the hardcore fans who wouldn’t be looking to buy a used “Gen 1” over the “Gen 2”.

So what’s left in terms of second hand buyers for the “Gen 1” is the people who couldn’t afford it. And probably still can’t.
So it will be cheap on the used market.

But who buys gadgets with this as a priority anyway? 🙂