Apple's Global Smartphone Share Slips as Chinese Rivals Surge

[seek3r]

Yup and apple knew this; hence iphone 15s (non pro) and earlier are locked out of the new features (AI), which they gambled on being the main draw but unsurprisingly blew up in their face since people with a 14pro have even less reason to upgrade if they don't care about AI.

Other manufacturers are certainly putting in the effort to differentiate themselves. Are many of the features gimmicks? probably; but apple doesn't do anything at all. And people are hungry for a change that'll differentiate the iphone; even if it's a gimmick, be it folding, active cooling, 3d, under screen camera, active cooling, pop out camera or a secondary e-ink screen. All these are features trialled to varying success by other manufacturers. They are very hit and miss but at least are a point of differentiation.

I think it’s honestly more likely that Apple AI has very little RAM headroom with the 6GB in a regular 15, notice that all the devices that support AAI have at least 8GB of RAM.

My bet is that Apple never intended to release it as early as they did but were forced to by how quickly AI because a “must have” spec to tout (whether people actually cared about it or not).

If they’d released it with the 17s, which seems to be about when the final pieces will be released anyway, and it also supported all 4 16s and the 15 pro no one would really be complaining

 

[I7guy]

Yup and apple knew this; hence iphone 15s (non pro) and earlier are locked out of the new features (AI), which they gambled on being the main draw but unsurprisingly blew up in their face since people with a 14pro have even less reason to upgrade if they don't care about AI.

For the competition, how many older models from the same manufacturers can run AI as well as the current model (if a vendor has included it?)

Other manufacturers are certainly putting in the effort to differentiate themselves. Are many of the features gimmicks? probably; but apple doesn't do anything at all.

Well it depends on what considers a gimmick vs not. I wouldn’t switch for ai integration, but those vendors who have real and useful functions that work in the real world as solidly as the camera, show the potential. (If any)

And people are hungry for a change that'll differentiate the iphone; even if it's a gimmick, be it folding, active cooling, 3d, under screen camera, active cooling, pop out camera or a secondary e-ink screen.

I think those a minority, the same vocal group on MR.

All these are features trialled to varying success by other manufacturers. They are very hit and miss but at least are a point of differentiation.

Differentiation isn’t enough to get me to dump my iPhone but it may be enough to move a person from one handset running android ti another.

 

[nostradumbass]

These stories are BS and they do it every six months like clockwork. News outlets regurgitate it like gospel truth. Forum and social media users react like super experts from their armchairs.

Nobody knows the real picture of sales in countries like China, India, south East Asia, Africa, etc.

Not even Apple knows. Too much grey market. Too many stolen gadgets reassembled into new gadgets. They only know activations but many iOS and Android users don't activate cloud accounts in those regions.

You think companies in India and China are honest about their sales? You think they stop doing fraud after Luckin Coffee and the reverse merger scandals? Of course not. Wall Street is happy to play along.

These stories are Wall Street planted stories. They manipulate stocks to reach a price target or market cap target. Then they change the narrative so they can push the market down and pick up the same stocks again cheaper.

They do this twice a year every year since forever. They did it so many times for the iPod and then iPhone.

Look at how much money the trading desks of the big banks make. Record profits every year for 8 years straight. That doesn't happen by accident. That can only happen by rigging stock markets and planting stories in the media.

They know when president is going to start a trade war because they ask for it. They know when a currency is going to up or down because they make it happen. They know the way the market is going to move because they have their hands on the levers.

 

[seek3r]

These stories are BS and they do it every six months like clockwork. News outlets regurgitate it like gospel truth. Forum and social media users react like super experts from their armchairs.

Nobody knows the real picture of sales in countries like China, India, south East Asia, Africa, etc.

Not even Apple knows. Too much grey market. Too many stolen gadgets reassembled into new gadgets.

Parts being serialized makes that less viable as an option for complete rebuilding, especially on new devices where Apple cares the most about the numbers

They only know activations but many iOS and Android users don't activate cloud accounts in those regions.

To my knowledge you literally cannot setup an iphone without setting up an icloud account…

You think companies in India and China are honest about their sales? You think they stop doing fraud after Luckin Coffee and the reverse merger scandals? Of course not. Wall Street is happy to play along.

Apple knows how many phones they produce and ship to these regions, they dont even have to care about honesty in sales from downstream distributors to have a good idea on numbers

 

[nostradumbass]

Parts being serialized makes that less viable as an option for complete rebuilding, especially on new devices where Apple cares the most about the numbers

Incorrect, it is widely known that that the phone stolen from you in the street today will be sold for parts and recycled in Shenzhen within a week.

To my knowledge you literally cannot setup an iphone without setting up an icloud account…

I didn't say they they go through the full process of adding Apple Pay etc that would identify the user. I should have been clear about that.

Apple knows how many phones they produce and ship to these regions, they dont even have to care about honesty in sales from downstream distributors to have a good idea on numbers

These stories, as always, don't come from Apple. They come from large traders who plant stories in the press. They do it like clockwork every year. The same cocaine addicted suits who manipulate every major stock and then run away with the money.

 

[seek3r]

Incorrect, it is widely known that that the phone stolen from you in the street today will be sold for parts and recycled in Shenzhen within a week.

[citation needed]

I didn't say they they go through the full process of adding Apple Pay etc that would identify the user. I should have been clear about that.

For raw numbers on usage that doesnt matter

 

[sidewinder3000]

I don't think Apple's China problem is the Chinese hanging on to their devices too long, it's that they are increasingly buying Chinese-brand phones. From what I can see, the Chinese brands have more features and integrations into China-specific applications/technologies than Apple can muster (no Apple Intelligence in China for example). 10 years ago, an iPhone was a status symbol as well as being the better phone in China. These days, I suspect the non-pro models have lost a lot of their appeal against local brands that are pushing the envelope in terms of specs and features, with only the top end models still acting as a sign of wealth.

It would not surprise me at all if Tim Cook decides to retire in the 1-2 years, so he can cement his legacy before the Apple revenues start to decline after increasing ASPs can no longer compensate for falling sales numbers.

China has incredible innovation, but much of it is not disciplined or well designed as far as the user experience, subscribing to the “more is more” design philosophy (of course plenty of American and other global companies are guilty of that as well). On top of that, in their hysterical frenzy to out produce and out sell their competition, the amount of shameless ripping off of not just features, but the look and feel of the devices themselves, is astonishing. Not only are certain models of Xiomi and OnePlus phones physically almost indistinguishable from iPhones, but if you look at some of the apps, user interface, and software, it looks like they literally did screen grabs.

It’s hard to wrap your head around how that sort of blatant, low effort rip off is acceptable, especially when they are clearly capable of such innovation. As the Chinese market matures, I’m guessing this could change. But my experience with most of these hot new Android phones is that they are a sexy mess.

 

[sidewinder3000]

I don't think Apple's China problem is the Chinese hanging on to their devices too long, it's that they are increasingly buying Chinese-brand phones. From what I can see, the Chinese brands have more features and integrations into China-specific applications/technologies than Apple can muster (no Apple Intelligence in China for example). 10 years ago, an iPhone was a status symbol as well as being the better phone in China. These days, I suspect the non-pro models have lost a lot of their appeal against local brands that are pushing the envelope in terms of specs and features, with only the top end models still acting as a sign of wealth.

It would not surprise me at all if Tim Cook decides to retire in the 1-2 years, so he can cement his legacy before the Apple revenues start to decline after increasing ASPs can no longer compensate for falling sales numbers.

China has incredible innovation, but much of it is not well designed as far as the user experience, subscribing to the “more is more” design philosophy. On top of that, and their hysterical frenzy to out produce an out cell, their competition, the amount of shameless ripping off of not just features, but the look and feel of the devices themselves, is astonishing. Not only are certain models of Xiomi and OnePlus phones almost in distinguishable from iPhones, physically, if you look at some of the apps, user interface, and software, it looks like they literally did screen grabs.

It’s hard to wrap your head around how that sort of blatant, low effort rip off is acceptable, especially when they are capable of such innovation.

 

[kiranmk2]

China has incredible innovation, but much of it is not well designed as far as the user experience, subscribing to the “more is more” design philosophy. On top of that, and their hysterical frenzy to out produce an out cell, their competition, the amount of shameless ripping off of not just features, but the look and feel of the devices themselves, is astonishing. Not only are certain models of Xiomi and OnePlus phones almost in distinguishable from iPhones, physically, if you look at some of the apps, user interface, and software, it looks like they literally did screen grabs.

It’s hard to wrap your head around how that sort of blatant, low effort rip off is acceptable, especially when they are capable of such innovation.

China definitely caught up to the West by rampant IP & know-how infringement, but are now starting to surpass what they have learnt. In some cases, this happened with encouragement from Western companies in the name of cost-cutting (e.g. many Western auto manufacturers, showed Chinese firms how to build cars efficiently to outsource manufacturing and enter the Chinese market), and in others it was through reverse engineering and copying.

As you point out there are a flurry of Chinese manufacturers that are knocking out phones with impressive technical specs & features that aren't great to use, but I think that there are now manufacturers emerging from this mob that are standing out from the pack, in the same way that BYD is releasing Western quality EVs around the world.

As China has caught up with the West, the question now becomes can they actually invent their own technologies?

 

[sidewinder3000]

China definitely caught up to the West by rampant IP & know-how infringement, but are now starting to surpass what they have learnt. In some cases, this happened with encouragement from Western companies in the name of cost-cutting (e.g. many Western auto manufacturers, showed Chinese firms how to build cars efficiently to outsource manufacturing and enter the Chinese market), and in others it was through reverse engineering and copying.

As you point out there are a flurry of Chinese manufacturers that are knocking out phones with impressive technical specs & features that aren't great to use, but I think that there are now manufacturers emerging from this mob that are standing out from the pack, in the same way that BYD is releasing Western quality EVs around the world.

As China has caught up with the West, the question now becomes can they actually invent their own technologies?

I’m guessing as part of the natural cycle that they will. But innovation requires risk, so their ability to tolerate risk will play a big part of it.

As far as UX, Chinese companies will start focusing more on user design when the market demands it, or when some exec decides to make it their mission. Some Chinese companies are already making products with better user interfaces. I’m a big fan of DJI, who seem to not only have amazing tech, but also seem to have a good sense for how people interact with that tech. Will be exciting to see what is next…