Apple's iPhone 12 Preparations May Be Delayed Due to Coronavirus Travel Restrictions

[hans1972]

I know we always hear that... but what are some actual numbers?

Pretend I know nothing about modern assembly factories. I realize there are multiple people who are involved in assembling each product... and that hourly wages range wildly in different parts of the world.

So how much does labor factor into the price of a $2,000 laptop or a $1,000 phone?

It is not so much labor cost but the availability of a huge flexible workforce and assembly facilities.

Lets say Apple did the assembly in the US and said we need 30 000 people to work on the assembly for 12 weeks starting in august. Suddenly something changes in September and they say they only need 10 000 people and lets 20 000 people become unemployed. Then in March sales pick up and they need 5000 people to start in 7 days.

It would not work in the US, both from a legal or cultural standpoint.

 

[cocky jeremy]

No, same price. Why would it cost $3K? Apple is saying parts for the iPhone are made all over the world. It is assembled in China.

Try getting someone in America to work for what the Chinese workers get paid.

 

[sirozha]

Let’s pause a moment and reflect back on a typical iPhone launch cadence.

Preorders go live in Sept. If you’re not clicking ‘Buy’ within the first 3-seconds of the opening bell, you’ve missed the first wave of devices and are staring at Oct. delivery dates. Within 60-seconds, your looking at Nov. deliveries. An hour in and you’re into the next calendar year. At this point, panic sets in and people start paying other people to spend the next 7 days of their lives holding spots in line, in hopes of scoring a launch day device at Apple Stores around the world. It’s not until Feb./Mar. before supply/demand begins to even think about leveling off.

And that’s with an absolutely pristine production cycle.

You think these forums were intolerable then? It’s breathtaking to ponder what will become of this site come fall. The sheer volume of posts expressing ship date fury, calling for Tim’s head and threatening to leave Apple for Samsung will absolutely melt MR’s servers. Arn will have to take to Twitter to announce he’s taken the site offline and returning to his medical practice. Unprecedented nerd pandemonium will ensue. Hostages will be taken. Markets will crumble. Trump will blame CNN. Prepare accordingly.

That said, I still think Apple manages to hit a late Sept. presale window. Only this time around, supply levels will be so low that with 3-seconds of the opening bell, delivery dates will slip into the new year. The nerd rage will be deafening. Buttering my popcorn now.

This hasn’t been the case for a few years now. iPhone 11 was readily available in September for purchase. iPhone 10 was released later than iPhone 11. I remember having to stand in line for a couple hours to get iPhone 10 in early November 2017. Prior to iPhone 10, it was not easy to get a new iPhone before Christmas, but it hasn’t been the case in the past couple years.

If iPhone 12 gets delayed, Apple will not have a good holiday quarter, and hence AAPL will be punished.

 

[farmboy]

If iPhone 12 gets delayed, Apple will not have a good holiday quarter, and hence AAPL will be punished.

Well, so will everyone else, it's not like only Apple will be affected.

And if we're all fortunate enough to stay healthy -- remember the vast majority of cases are considered mild so far, altho death tends to put a crimper in the stats--life will go on, capitalism will continue.

 

[sirozha]

Huh? Isn’t how US businesses treat their employees or contractors to begin with?
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Well, so will everyone else, it's not like only Apple will be affected.

And if we're all fortunate enough to stay healthy -- remember the vast majority of cases are considered mild so far, altho death tends to put a crimper in the stats--life will go on, capitalism will continue.

Im not worried about capitalism. And no, not everyone will be punished as much AAPL. Tesla makes all of their cars in North America so far. The Chinese plant was shut down before it actually produced a meaningful number of cars.

Apple, on the other hand, manufacturers a lion share of its products in China.

As for the Coronavirus, it’s a lot worse than we know. The official China reported numbers of those who died point to above 3% death rate. It’s HUGE. It’s more than 300 times the mortality rate of the common flu. It’s also feared that the China is utterly under-reporting the deaths.

Let’s be clear about one thing. A totalitarian communist regime is not going to shut down It’s booming economy over a virus the at causes mild symptoms. The reason they **** down their entire economy for a month now and put 60 million people under house arrest as well as have placed 780 million people under travel restrictions is that they know how bad and deadly this virus is.

 

[Dammit Cubs]

Try getting someone in America to work for what the Chinese workers get paid.

I would just change this statement to

"Try getting someone in America to work"

 

[anthogag]

Try getting someone in America to work for what the Chinese workers get paid.

Someone in the the States would make $20/hr. In China, is it around $3/hr?

How many iPhones are made in 1 hour and how many people work on assembling iPhones?

I will guess 10,000 iPhone Pros per hour with 1,000 people at all the various stages of production.

In the States: 1,000 people for 1 hour = $20,000 wages
In China: 1,000 people for 1 hour = $3,000
Difference: $17,000
Profit on 10,000 iPhones is maybe $650 x 10,000 = $6.5 million.
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Why didn’t they think of that?

They can't think of everything.

 

[cocky jeremy]

Someone in the the States would make $20/hr. In China, is it around $3/hr?

How many iPhones are made in 1 hour and how many people work on assembling iPhones?

I will guess 10,000 iPhone Pros per hour with 1,000 people at all the various stages of production.

In the States: 1,000 people for 1 hour = $20,000 wages
In China: 1,000 people for 1 hour = $3,000
Difference: $17,000
Profit on 10,000 iPhones is maybe $650 x 10,000 = $6.5 million.
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They can't think of everything.

And you think Apple is going to give up profit.. just because..? Cute.

 

[macduke]

Well I wish you good health and recovery as it sounded awful.

Thanks. It's "just" a bad cold now, but on the downside I'm not getting much sleep with all the coughing at night while also waking up soaked in a cold sweat. What's weird is our kids didn't get it, and they always get everything, so idk what's going on. Someone told me Covid-19 doesn't really affect kids, so now I'm actually kinda wondering what the hell my wife and I just had. At least if we did have it, we got it out of the way early?

 

[compwiz1202]

Right, with a price tag of $3k. Sure
Any more sensible comments?

Yea every single time one of the posts come up there are two responses that are a given. The move production here always countered by what it will cost. And the who cares about the iPhone if people are dying.

 

[Freida]

Not sure if you are aiming something at me or in general but I feel that yeah, something happens and response is to abandon it and go elsewhere. The problem of today's society. Hence why I liked my time in India where I learnt that people are taught from the very beginning to solve problems instead of walking away from them like the western society.
Hence I think Tim is actually handling it quite well (referring to today's article).
He is smart man and he may not always do the best thing for everyone but he is doing intelligent and wise moves pretty much most of the times.
Not perfect but when it comes to morality he seems to be on the right track.

Yea every single time one of the posts come up there are two responses that are a given. The move production here always countered by what it will cost. And the who cares about the iPhone if people are dying.

 

[compwiz1202]

Let’s pause a moment and reflect back on a typical iPhone launch cadence.

Preorders go live in Sept. If you’re not clicking ‘Buy’ within the first 3-seconds of the opening bell, you’ve missed the first wave of devices and are staring at Oct. delivery dates. Within 60-seconds, your looking at Nov. deliveries. An hour in and you’re into the next calendar year. At this point, panic sets in and people start paying other people to spend the next 7 days of their lives holding spots in line, in hopes of scoring a launch day device at Apple Stores around the world. It’s not until Feb./Mar. before supply/demand begins to even think about leveling off.

And that’s with an absolutely pristine production cycle.

You think these forums were intolerable then? It’s breathtaking to ponder what will become of this site come fall. The sheer volume of posts expressing ship date fury, calling for Tim’s head and threatening to leave Apple for Samsung will absolutely melt MR’s servers. Arn will have to take to Twitter to announce he’s taken the site offline and returning to his medical practice. Unprecedented nerd pandemonium will ensue. Hostages will be taken. Markets will crumble. Trump will blame CNN. Prepare accordingly.

That said, I still think Apple manages to hit a late Sept. presale window. Only this time around, supply levels will be so low that with 3-seconds of the opening bell, delivery dates will slip into the new year. The nerd rage will be deafening. Buttering my popcorn now.

Exactly. Even with a normal cycle, they still have to balance too soon with backorder hell with too late and having people get something else. And man if they miss Black Friday and Christmas, it's all over.

The other rage that is pretty much imminent with a delayed release will be WTF now I have to pay a thirteenth and fourteenth payment. I want that compensated!!!!

 

[cbusbuck]

Perhaps Apple should make iPhones in NA.

There exists an insurmountable mismatch between the skillsets of North American population and those required to build iPhones or most electronic devices for that matter. Those well-versed in social engineering, feminist ecology, gender physics, and comparative grievance studies are not the right people to build anything physical. If you want to order a word salad to go with your cancel culture, then there's no better place than North America, with Canada being especially well-suited.