Apple's 'iPhone 5S Problem' Suggests Need to Be Less Predictable

[Casiotone]

The iPhone 4 had severely constrained availability when it launched, managing to sell "only" 1.7 millions over the first week-end (only 700k more than the 3GS)

The 4S on the other hand, had plenty of units available even if Apple launched in a lot more countries at the same time.

It sold 4 millions over the first week-end, more than twice as the iPhone 4. This was possible because of the fact that the form factor didn't change so it was easy for Apple to produce millions of them quickly (with higher margins).

The iPhone 5, just like the 4 was a new form factor which was hard to manufacture at the beginning of the production line, leading to limited availability. The iPhone 5 only sold 1 million more units over the first week-end compared to the 4S.

People underestimate the appeal of the "S" models.

"Tried and tested and even better than before" beats "Fancy all new design and futuristic features" in the minds of many.

I think that Apple could sell a lot of iPhone 5S especially if they have a lot of supply available for launch. Something like 8-10 millions over the first week-end.

 

[dampfnudel]

You will find me among those that don't feel a bigg screen is needed at all. More stable cell connections, 802.11ac, better camera are all more important than a bigger screen to many

I predict I will also find you among the first to order an iPhone with a larger screen.

 

[maxosx]

The iPhone 4 had severely constrained availability when it launched, managing to sell "only" 1.7 millions over the first week-end (only 700k more than the 3GS)

The 4S on the other hand, had plenty of units available even if Apple launched in a lot more countries at the same time.

It sold 4 millions over the first week-end, more than twice as the iPhone 4. This was possible because of the fact that the form factor didn't change so it was easy for Apple to produce millions of them quickly (with higher margins).

The iPhone 5, just like the 4 was a new form factor which was hard to manufacture at the beginning of the production line, leading to limited availability. The iPhone 5 only sold 1 million more units over the first week-end compared to the 4S.

People underestimate the appeal of the "S" models. "Tried and tested + even better than before" beats "Fancy all new design and futuristic features" in the minds of many.

I think that Apple could sell a lot of iPhone 5S especially if they have a lot of supply available for launch. Something like 8-10 millions over the first week-end.

You're right, having a huge supply ready to ship is the answer.

 

[etrinh]

What does the G-Note do that the 3GS doesn't?

Curious because I've only owned 3GS and 4S.

Reading about features isn't that same as someone actually using them and telling you about them.

I'm still relatively young (22), but I have owned a Macbook, a Macbook Pro, a iPhone 3GS, and an iPhone 4S, not to mention the countless people I know personally that have come to me for tech advice, and pushed them towards Apple.

The iPhone 4S's absurd lack of LTE, and same small screen size, and just general sameness in the iOS when coming from the 3GS made me just feel like, why the hell did I buy this? Don't get me wrong, I love my 3GS, and I actually still use it as an iPod Touch in my car for Podcasts and Music, but everything I could do on my 4S, I could more or less do on the 3GS. Which is why I sold it on Ebay 4 months after owning it, and jumped onto a Galaxy Note.

I still use my MBP, and probably will continue to, but phone wise, that absurd release just left me feeling burned towards the whole iOS lineup.

EDIT: If you bring up Siri, well, lets just say, its the feature advertised the most, which is used the least. It became more a problem when I was in my college classes, with the damn device muted, it would continue to think I was putting the phone up to my ear, and make a bunch of noise.

 

[Builddesign]

Tell automakers to be less predictable.....

Leave alone

 

[paul4339]

The 5S will sell well, because the 4S sold well. Assuming a 90% satisfactory rating with the 4S, a good portion of people on the two-year plans will renew to a 5S. There will be also a good portion from the iPhone 4 that held back or are on 3-year plans up for renewal.

The kicker is going to be if the keep they iPhone 5 around (with a reduced price) AND the release of a less expensive iPhone. The combination of these two, will address the low and high end of the mid-market. These can replace the $99 and $0 down payment currently being offered by the 4S and 4.

.

 

[Arelunde]

It seems maybe smartphone development is beginning to plateau - like desktop computers did years ago. How many different ways can you do things before you start creating "new" things out of recycled old things.

The screen size of a smartphone is now limited by the existence of tablets. Tablet size is limited by laptop computers with detachable screens. Tablets sizes are limited by the willingness of consumers to cart around a slab of screen.

We went from basic computers that required an array of peripherals to built-in components and now back to an array of peripherals because devices need to be streamlines, light and ....???

 

[vmachiel]

Been pretty damned quiet in Cupertino so far.

Yeah it has. But what i'm hoping is not so much hardware, that's pretty much fine for the moment, but software innovation.

Since iOS 6 was a bit of a "meh" upgrade, i'm hoping for amazing stuff in iOS 7.

 

[Rogifan]

Yeah it has. But what i'm hoping is not so much hardware, that's pretty much fine for the moment, but software innovation.

Since iOS 6 was a bit of a "meh" upgrade, i'm hoping for amazing stuff in iOS 7.

Tim Cook says Apple isn't a hardware company. Time for them to prove that this year.

 

[UK-MacAddict]

There is nothing wrong with iPhone keeping the same design for 2 years and just updating the internals.

The issue for me is that they don't update the internals enough. They always seem to hold back with every product to put something onto the successor. I'm positive they could have launched the iPad mini with a retina. But they'd say oh we couldn't because of its size blah blah.

I've had every single iPhone since they launched it and iPhone 5 was pretty unexciting. To steal the show back from Samsung. Apple need to pump the screen to 4.5 inch both taller and wider aspect ratio. On the looks front they are still the best so Jony should just continue what he's doing there. Inside they need to go at least quad core with 2gb ram. Heck why follow competition. Just blow them out of the water with an 8 core processor and 4gb of ram.

Finally the iOS needs a major overhaul. The icons should be relegated to the background and called up when needed and not the first thing you see. Android and the new BB 10 look 10 years ahead of iOS.

Apple need to just go crazy on the next iPhone and give customers a super charged iPhone.

 

[kockgunner]

That word doesn't mean what you think it means and you're using it lazily.

Also Apple's stock is half what it used to be because of analysts spewing bullcrap plus a trigger happy stock market that believes everything it hears. Nothing else.

Samsung is probably about to release a GSIV that is identical to the GSIII in terms of external design. Same curved plastic shell with fake metal accents. Yet no one will moan about that, in fact they will sell millions and most will hail it as the best smartphone in the market. But with Apple its "they're not innovating, they're boring" blah blah blah.

How about you guys come up with a revolutionary idea every 6 months and lets see how you fare.

I'm not saying Apple is perfect, far from it but a lot of people seem to be in over their heads and no longer recognise reality.

Personally i can't wait till Apple buys back their stock and all the complainers move to Android/Samsung. Then it'll be back to the specific segment of the market that Apple has always catered to from the start and everyone will move on.

Thank you! I miss the time when Apple was in a bubble and didn't get scrutinized by every single form of media and people who probably don't even know what the word "innovation" means. I hate that people won't shut up about how I made the wrong choice if I buy an Apple product. Apple products have never been for everyone and they never will.

 

[Russlush3]

I question how the conclusion in bold can be reached based on the 'S' years to date. Sounds good in theory but the 3GS and the 4S both resulted in a dramatic increases in sales.

Increase in sales (and market share) does not equal "consumers far more likely to look around at competitor products."

It is just a hypothesis, but I am an anecdotal case and point. A mixture of my iPhone shattering upon the first time dropping it (from about 3 ft), the absolute mess of Maps last year, and my lack of enthusiasm for the 5 design (with the knowledge that it was almost certainly not going to change for nearly 2 years) lead me to give the Galaxy S3 a try. If I hated the GS3, it would be time to get a new phone around the time the iPhone 6 came out and I'd be able to chose. Now that I've been using the GS3 for about 4 months, all of my hesitations have been washed away and Apple will have to do double duty if they want to bring me back to the iPhone. I will likely always be an iMac and Macbook pro owner, but I find myself slowly but surely ditching all the extras like my iPhone, ipod shuffle, ipod nano, apple tv, kinda sad.

 

[BaldiMac]

It is just a hypothesis, but I am an anecdotal case and point. A mixture of my iPhone shattering upon the first time dropping it (from about 3 ft), the absolute mess of Maps last year, and my lack of enthusiasm for the 5 design (with the knowledge that it was almost certainly not going to change for nearly 2 years) lead me to give the Galaxy S3 a try. If I hated the GS3, it would be time to get a new phone around the time the iPhone 6 came out and I'd be able to chose. Now that I've been using the GS3 for about 4 months, all of my hesitations have been washed away and Apple will have to do double duty if they want to bring me back to the iPhone. I will likely always be an iMac and Macbook pro owner, but I find myself slowly but surely ditching all the extras like my iPhone, ipod shuffle, ipod nano, apple tv, kinda sad.

Like I said to the last person who posted their switching story in response, that's a nice anecdote. But the fact is that more people are switching to the iPhone than switching away from the iPhone. It is not only increasing in unit sales, but market share as well throughout 'S' years and otherwise.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/...are-of-leading-smartphone-vendors-since-2007/

 

[chiefsilverback]

Because the only innovation in smartphones is redesigning the case!

Porsche have been evolving the 911 for 40+ years now...

 

[charlituna]

I predict I will also find you among the first to order an iPhone with a larger screen.

If that is the only thing that is different, no you won't. If it has all the stuff I want and the screen is a bit larger I won't likely reject it. Then again if they create some asshat looking phablet I won't. I'm not one of these saps that buys something simply because its new and shiny and Apple made it

 

[cclloyd]

0th world problems.

 

[dampfnudel]

If that is the only thing that is different, no you won't. If it has all the stuff I want and the screen is a bit larger I won't likely reject it. Then again if they create some asshat looking phablet I won't. I'm not one of these saps that buys something simply because its new and shiny and Apple made it

That's what they all say. What's all "the stuff I want"? NFC? A fingerprint sensor? Slightly improved camera with LED flash? A7? Something up Apple's sleeve that's hopefully more significant than Siri?

I think with the maturity of the smartphone business and diminishing returns from the hardware side (for now at least), it will be the software that makes or breaks the iPhone from this point on.

 

[charlituna]

That's what they all say. What's all "the stuff I want"?

I answered that before you tried to be cute and claim you have a clue about me and whether I'd buy it anyway. So you can look it up if you want the answer

 

[AceMason]

I just wish we would all get along like we used to in middle school ...

 

[dampfnudel]

I answered that before you tried to be cute and claim you have a clue about me and whether I'd buy it anyway. So you can look it up if you want the answer

With some people who purchase Apple products, it's not being cute, it's being factual. If that doesn't apply to you, my bad.

Moving on, I hope Apple has something more significant up their sleeves for the 5S or maybe even a larger screen surprise.

 

[SomeDudeAsking]

You are the Golden Child example of somebody who has absolutely no idea how the stick market works. In fact, when I was at Schwab we used to call investors who shared your logic, Kamikazes.

You have any more derogatory anecdotes you like to share?

 

[cjmillsnun]

Not trying to toll, but I felt burned by the iPhone 4S, which is what led me to android. This is a problem, whether Apple wants to acknowledge it or not.

You were burned by the 4S... Why? I upgraded to the 4S from the 4. In fact the 5 is the first one I've missed since I first got my 3G.

Every single one has offered enough of an advantage for me to upgrade.

3G-3GS --> HSDPA, camera, video capability and speed.

3GS-4 --> HSUPA better camera, flash on the camera, speed and oh that display

4-4S --> HSPA+, better camera, speed (dual processors) Siri.

Every single 'S' phone has offered enough to make it a compelling upgrade. Especially over the previous 'S' phone. One has to remember that most US, Canadian and European people are on 2 year contracts. Therefore the tick tock cycle actually works very well.

----------

The 5S will sell well, because the 4S sold well. Assuming a 90% satisfactory rating with the 4S, a good portion of people on the two-year plans will renew to a 5S. There will be also a good portion from the iPhone 4 that held back or are on 3-year plans up for renewal.

The kicker is going to be if the keep they iPhone 5 around (with a reduced price) AND the release of a less expensive iPhone. The combination of these two, will address the low and high end of the mid-market. These can replace the $99 and $0 down payment currently being offered by the 4S and 4.

.

There will be a less expensive iPhone. It'll be the 4S which will take the $0 slot the 4 currently occupies.

----------

It is a problem, except for the fact that people have started to become disappointed by the non-'S' releases (iPhone 5) and less so about the 'S' releases (iPhone 3GS/4S) because they know not to expect much.

And yet iPhones continue to outsell all other competitor devices. Nothing has changed.

Personally, I couldn't be happier with my 5, far better than my previous 4, which itself was a phenomenal phone. But I'll be skipping the 5S anyway; damn 2 year contracts!

Analysts and tech pundits ≠ most people.

Most people are more than happy with the iPhone releases.

 

[cjmillsnun]

I don't care what you haters or apple lovers say

The market has spoken and the facts say people are bored with apple

Can you provide sales evidence to back up that fact?

Apple are the largest or second largest manufacturer of smartphones. FACT.

OK the stock market shows that some people are bored with Apple, but to be fair I think the stock was way overvalued. It seems to have stabilised and it looks like there was a revaluation done. One must remember that Apple survived the 2008-2012 period unscathed (in fact stronger) whilst others lost out big time on the stock market. That in my mind was unrealistic.

 

[Born Again]

Can you provide sales evidence to back up that fact?

Apple are the largest or second largest manufacturer of smartphones. FACT.

OK the stock market shows that some people are bored with Apple, but to be fair I think the stock was way overvalued. It seems to have stabilised and it looks like there was a revaluation done. One must remember that Apple survived the 2008-2012 period unscathed (in fact stronger) whilst others lost out big time on the stock market. That in my mind was unrealistic.

I own an iPhone 5 and iOS 6 offers nothing new

Looking fwd to iOS 7 or I'm out of here!

Not the forum; love the forum

 

[cmChimera]

Couple of serious questions.

1. When people say that the iPhone 5 looks identical to the iPhone 4/iPhone 4s should I recommend them an eye exam?

2. When people say that the "S" models don't change much, what should I do besides laugh at them?