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Edit: 4GB and 8GB (didn't want to feel left out!)

I would think that there will be 3 factors that will help the iPhone keep (even gain?) momentum.

The first is that it's only with one provider. I for one have to wait until December 10th to get my iPhone and I am so certain I am getting one that my dashboard even has a Countdown Calendar until 'iPhone'. (97 days!) Many other people are going to be riding out their other contracts and then shopping for a phone. If it's somebody who really wants an iPod or a smartphone this will be very attractive.

The second would be that people do wait to buy phones. I've never bought a phone while currently riding out a contract and I'm sure a lot of other people are the same way. Even Cingular/ATT users will want to wait until their phone is in dire need of replacement. People typically want to get what they can out of their device. Sure, the price won't drop just because they get a contract but it doesn't mean that they won't wait for their contract to end anyway.

The third would be that the more people using them the more people will see them. The more people that see them the more people that see how great they are. When you see how great it is and you have the money to spend, you will probably buy it. This will probably mostly help the people currently using iPods and phones and are in need of replacing both...
 
Assuming the survey is accurate, if 1.8% of all phones sold are iPhones, then after a little more than half the average lifespan of a phone, it should reach that 1% marketshare mark. And I've heard the average lifespan is a little over two years, so if demand ramps up (and a new version comes out) over the next 12-15 months, they may hit that Q4 08 target.

I say demand should ramp up because the first month's sales will almost definitely be higher than the next few months. Still, with phone contracts being the way they are, I wouldn't be surprised if the dropoff was minimal, as more people see their contracts end with other carriers.

Would be great, but the macrumors headline was missing one important word: apple hopes for 1% of global market share. 1.8% refers to US market share.

So the question is, how many phones are sold in the USA, so we can translate this into real numbers?
 
The iPhone is NOT a smartphone. Not even close. Comparing sales of this with smartphones is like comparing sales of the iMac with smartphones. Possible, but pointless.

So how did it do compared with other non-smartphones?
 
The iPhone is NOT a smartphone. Not even close. Comparing sales of this with smartphones is like comparing sales of the iMac with smartphones. Possible, but pointless.

So how did it do compared with other non-smartphones?

What is the definition of a smartphone, and why doesn't the iPhone fit that definition?
 
The iPhone is NOT a smartphone. Not even close. Comparing sales of this with smartphones is like comparing sales of the iMac with smartphones. Possible, but pointless.

It's not at all pointless. They are after the same market share. Many of the people who are willing to pay $500 for a phone already have smart phones.
 
To me a smart phone is just a phone with a lot of junk added that gets in the way of it being a phone.

:)

It's clear, by your comments, that you have not used an iPhone.
Of all of the 'smart' phones I have used, this one makes said "junk added that gets in the way" (which plagues other smart phones I have used) transparent.
Nothing comes close to it's ease of use.

I guess we could call the iPhone a smarter phone...
 
Would be great, but the macrumors headline was missing one important word: apple hopes for 1% of global market share. 1.8% refers to US market share.

So the question is, how many phones are sold in the USA, so we can translate this into real numbers?

during one quarter less than 40m mobile phones are sold in the us, so 13m a month and 1.8% would be less than 250k. worth noting also that this include the hype peak. how they come to 4.5m sold in the us this year, i really don't understand.
 
It is good to hear this. I am pretty sure Apple has probably already sold 1 million iPhones. They seem well ahead of the seemingly low goal they set for 1 million sold by the end of the quarter. I still fear that a new iPod Touch could have huge impact on iPhone sales, causing them to drop significantly since many people seem to buy the phone for the iPod.
 
I still fear that a new iPod Touch could have huge impact on iPhone sales, causing them to drop significantly since many people seem to buy the phone for the iPod.

Not sure. At the end of the day a person needs to decide if they want one device (that dials) or two that are more of a pain to carry.

Plus. I hope but we have not seen if the ipod will do Safari. It will be interesting if they only do wifi for music streaming....

24 more hours....
 
They are aiming for 10 million by Q4 of 2008... I don't know how that fairs with regards to market share

If you follow the link to the article, iSuppli estimates sales of 4.5 million in 2007. That is for only six months with almost no sales outside the USA; Apple would then have 12 months to sell another 5.5 million all over the world to reach that goal.

About the market share: Remember that market share counts number of phones sold. My £30 pre-paid mobile with no features whatsoever except ten buttons numbered 0 to 9 counts as ONE phone sold, just like a $600 iPhone. Whatever the market share numbers, Apple will have a much much bigger share in the total revenues.
 
Not sure. At the end of the day a person needs to decide if they want one device (that dials) or two that are more of a pain to carry.

Plus. I hope but we have not seen if the ipod will do Safari. It will be interesting if they only do wifi for music streaming....

I think there is room for both a "Touch" and an iPhone in Apple's lineup.
They cover two totally different markets.
iPhone = the active mobile user that wants/needs a true all-in-one.
"Touch" = the casual mobile user that doesn't mind carrying two device (phone + iPod).
But the second you put Safari on a "Touch," things quickly get a little crowded.

<Slightly OT>
One of my biggest gripes about the iPhone is that it does not offer that ever-handy Hard Disk mode - allowing users to (say) move files between Macs, like I have done with all of my iPods to date. That little, seemingly insignificant feature, is HUGE... to me. If the "Touch" maintains this ability, that too could cut into iPhone sales. But again, different markets... blah blah blah...
</Slightly OT>

I'm guessing if there is a "Touch" announced tomorrow, it will implement the new, slick nav features a multi-touch screen offers, minus Safari, Mail, YouTube, Maps, etc. My ¢2.
 
Ok so they are the most popular Smart phone but how many people buy smart phones vs ordinary phones.

To me a smart phone is just a phone with a lot of junk added that gets in the way of it being a phone.

but....
by definition a smartphone is one which can have applications added to it. The iPhone isnt a smartphone... most every phone these days has a web browser, email, etc... though it is terrible. The iphone is the best non smart phone out there, but it isnt a smartphone
 
Poor Palm.


Not.

And to the poster above.

YES it is a smartphone IMO.

it is not a smartphone... not everything is a matter of opinion... some things are or are not... you could say a triangle is a circle in your opinion or england is in japan in your opinion, or a skateboard is a type of automobile, but that wouldnt be valid
 
This would be great if the iPhone were a smartphone.

Edit: to clarify, smartphones traditionally have the ability to install 3rd party software not included by the manufacturer for the purpose of adapting to its user's needs. While I guess "unofficial" steps are being made to do that on the iPhone device, an iPhone is an iPhone -- if you need functionality that's not there out of the box, you're out of luck. I would say it's a more fully-featured phone, but definitely not a smartphone by any means.
 
it is not a smartphone... not everything is a matter of opinion... some things are or are not... you could say a triangle is a circle in your opinion or england is in japan in your opinion, or a skateboard is a type of automobile, but that wouldnt be valid

A term like "smartphone" is quite far from a term like "triangle". Triangles are much simpler and more simply defined - and yet even their definition isn't always clear. In non-Euclidian geometry a triangle is quite a different thing, for instance.

In any case, here's Wikipedia's definition of a smartphone:

"A smartphone is a full-featured mobile phone with personal computer like functionality."

If being able to install applications is a necessary feature of "computer-like" devices for you, that's dandy. But don't think you're safe behind some wall of mathematical definition when it comes to such vague and subjective matters.
 
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