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All their recent fails:

iOS 8 problems
Yosemite problems
Not enough iPhones
Mac mini RAM nit being upgradeable
iCloud photo library
No Apple TV update
No new MacBook Air
No refresh on regular iMacs

The stock market is crazy.

How is 'not enough iPhones' a problem? o_O "Oh no, our inventory is flying off the shelves!' I mean, yes, there's a bit of a risk for churn in the meantime but it's not the worst of problems for a company to have.

And the rest of it is mostly stuff that any company will deal with, and easily disregarded in light of Apple's sales at the moment and the impending launch of the Apple watch.
 
This is probably the least accurate prediction that I have ever read on this forum that has a guise of being informed. So you are saying that Apple should not have increased their features this year to not sacrifice sales next year? Perhaps this is the recommendation that Samsung was following. Are you Samsung's strategic advisor?

It's called managing earnings. Steve Jobs was an expert about giving just enough to sell the product while holding enough back for future products (e.g. iPhone 2G's lack of video) If anything Apple followed Samsung's lead of shoving almost every feature into their phones and just like Samsung it massively spiked their sales. But once the new phone is basically the same as the old phone--cuz a .1 increase in screen size is trival--Apple's profits will decline for the same reason's Samsung's are.
 
All their recent fails:

iOS 8 problems
Yosemite problems
Not enough iPhones
Mac mini RAM nit being upgradeable
iCloud photo library
No Apple TV update
No new MacBook Air
No refresh on regular iMacs

The stock market is crazy.
Apple is knee deep in fairy dust left behind by the prior CEO. A company like Apple that has had the benefit of the doubt for so long, along with a nearly indestructible halo kept afloat by the worlds best marketing, can run on autopilot for years.

Then there's the great job that Tim Cook had done. A very authentic professional I'm glad they are doing well, Tim did a lot while working with Steve. Now under the white hot spotlight, a position very few could handle, much less succeed at as Tim has, deserve the terrific results he has put on the board.
 
I'm not an expert, but firm value is only based on the sum of a company's assets in place and its growth assets if I recall (from a corporate finance point of view ofc).

The thing about most technological innovation-firms like Apple is simply that much of the value creation is derived from it's growth assets, rather than their assets in place. While the assets in place are often tangible goods of real value, growth assets are different. Problem is, in the end, growth assets are hardly based on anything other than our expectations of Apple's future.

As of right now, many investors have high hopes of Apple.

* New iPhone has been a major success, as always, thus they expect record-breaking revenues come Q4.
* Apple is quickly gaining market-share in new markets, e.g. China
* Promising lineup of new products (Apple Watch, updates to the line of computers, possibly VR, Television-sets, you name it)

However, let's say that the Apple Watch would prove to be a major disappointment, and people would find that Apple is no longer the innovator that they used to be, be so sure, people's expectations would change rapidly. If/when Apple is no longer able to deliver according to people's expectations, the value of Apple is going to take a huge hit.

We all know this is true to some extent, just think of the excitement surrounding coming Apple events. The stock usually grows rapidly the days before an event, but as many people are left disappointed, there is usually a stock decline the hours/days after an event.

I can still see the stock increasing for a bit longer, but I'm afraid that sooner or later, there must be a severe downfall. Hence why I'm debating between selling now, or keeping my stocks long-term and simply ignoring future downfalls.
 
I own a pretty good chunk of apple that I am debating selling soon. I have two chunks of shares actually, the first of which has already been held over a year therefore now is in long term gains tax bracket. The second larger chunk I would like to hold on until at least February so it too becomes long term instead of short term (IE, earnings taxed much less). I believe with the iPhone 6 and plus doing so well the market will hold on, but I'm getting nervous.

This stock is all about the iPhone. I bought it back in the pre-split ~$400 range due to suspected larger iPhones eventually showing up, and the consumers gobbling them up. The upgrade cycle has been insane to say the least. However, once it is over, I see a LOT of potential room for this stock to fall. I saw a statistic that something like 6 other stocks have had a market cap over 600 billion before, and nearly all of them are now worth ~1/3 of that. The Smartphone market eventually WILL mature, and once the larger screen switch is through I think the iPhone may very well enter into more of an iPad like upgrade cycle. Hardware wise, the 6 plus is essentially doing everything I'd like in a phone, and at this point it becomes more about the software. I just think Apple are going to have a hard time convincing the majority of people to keep upgrading a device like the 6 plus every two years.

Wait a second. You think two years from now folks are going to be keeping their iphone for four years? I really really doubt that. The technology is changing too quickly, the battery dies too quickly and the phones are too fragile, they won't last that long.

Upgrade rates will probably slow down. But only a bit and only gradually. I think Apple will keep grabbing marketshare and the smartphone market will keep expanding. So I'm predicting growth in smartphone sales year over year for the next ten years. Maybe just a small amount of growth, but growth none the less.
 
Didn't you say that you bought an iPad Air? Assuming that this is true: Did you buy it because of "brand recognition"?

No, I didn't, but I'm into tech. Most people see tablet and think iPad, ditto for phone. Just like many people call a copy machine a XEROX and tissue Kleenex.
 
< Currently buying a put option >

In my experience, once the tech rumor boards start becoming full of new and confident stock buyers instead of tech enthusiasts, the top is near.

I'm long, with a large part of my portfolio. Starting to feel very precarious though.
 
Apple is looking up. Hopefully all of these "APPLE IS DOOMED" posters will slow down

You're quite wrong. The haters will only grow in numbers.

The bigger and more successful Apple becomes (compared to its valuation now), the more jealousy and haters it will attract. Look a few posts above you, there's already some veteran Apple-haters lurking on this thread. :p

The thread topic was simply re-instating Apple's record valuation (market cap, based on the ever-increasing AAPL stock price), and then some haters gotta come here and put some negative spin on that.
 
In my experience, once the tech rumor boards start becoming full of new and confident stock buyers instead of tech enthusiasts, the top is near.

I'm long, with a large part of my portfolio. Starting to feel very precarious though.

There's an easy way to know when the top is near. If Taxis drivers, or hotel cleaning lady starts telling you to buy stock or start telling you they dabble in stocks, then sell everything... Worked well in the 2000 and 2008 debacle for me :).
 
There's an easy way to know when the top is near. If Taxis drivers, or hotel cleaning lady starts telling you to buy stock or start telling you they dabble in stocks, then sell everything... Worked well in the 2000 and 2008 debacle for me :).

Yep, that's what I'm saying about this message board ;)
 
Apple is never the first to do something. They don't try to be the first to do something. They aim to be the first to do something right. They weren't the first company with a touchscreen phone - they were the first company with a touchscreen phone where the touchscreen was good. They weren't the first to make a portable music player with a HD - they were the first to make one simple enough that people would actually want to use it.

Even thought high resolution screens existed before Apple started them up it was limited and it seems they are a big factor in pushing everyone else to insane laptop and phone resolutions. Even if others are currently beating them out at the moment. Be curious if anyone else would have taken upon themselves even close to that time frame.
 
If you're producing upwards of 5 million phones per week, and you still can't meet demand.... well, that's a pretty nice "problem" for Apple to have.

I hear you. Been waiting over 2.5 weeks now for a pre-ordered Verizon iPhone 6 with 64 GB in Space Gray... 2.5 weeks??
 
I hear you. Been waiting over 2.5 weeks now for a pre-ordered Verizon iPhone 6 with 64 GB in Space Gray... 2.5 weeks??

I ordered mine on September 28th. It arrived November 11th. I imagine your wait will be shorter, but 2.5 weeks is nothing.
 
Brand recognition happens because the products you sell are superior. Nike doesn't just have a brand, they have great shoes.

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That's equivalent to saying Apple's products are better.

Uh... Apple's products are better? But that doesn't mean they haven't been getting worse. :rolleyes:

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The truth about valuations is that nobody really knows whether a company's stock is over or undervalued until after the fact. Investors who play that game are begging to get burned.

What I mean is, eventually people will collectively sink in all the money they're going to. Pretty much everyone who wants to/can own it, will already own it.. and there'll be nowhere for the stock to go.
 
Uh... Apple's products are better? But that doesn't mean they haven't been getting worse. :rolleyes:

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What I mean is, eventually people will collectively sink in all the money they're going to.

I remember back in the day, when I gentleman drove his car up to our cross-country meet and offered free shoes to the runners, I wish I kept my pair! Mr. Knight was desperate to get his and Mr. Bowerman's product to runners. Who knew?
 
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