From reading their reddit manifesto, it doesn't sound like Fudge is an insider. They may have a contact somewhere that's point them to the 12", but a lot of the phasing and justification sounds like its based on public information and, frankly, like someone who is knowledgable but trying too hard to pull too many threads together.
I don't put much more weight in their post than I would in the speculation of folks around here who know a bit more than average about how a computer is built. I used to pay a lot more attention this kind of stuff, but now I don't put much more faith in my own intuition that I would in Fudge's, so with that in mind I'll just add my own groundless speculation...
Yeah, I see why you'd say that. Basically the 12" has been replaced by the iPP and magic keyboard-- but then that's pretty much what this machine would be except it would presumably give a more MacOS like experience.
A lot depends on whether the product ships able to run existing applications-- in particular the Microsoft suite. Is Office uploaded to the Mac App Store in LLVM bitcode and is that sufficient?
I think it also depends on whether Apple is about to make the next step with Gatekeeper and force all installations through the App Store-- here I'm looking squarely at Adobe.
Seems to me the first product is going to want to make the argument for why they're transitioning. If they could release a 12" that matches the 16" in performance, it would definitely make a statement. Mostly a marketing statement though-- it would still get a development machine out there, but it's a bit overpowered for the form factor. The 12" is mostly a casual computing and travel machine-- so web and Word, basically. Anybody wanting to take advantage of higher performance would need to attach a couple external monitors to edit code, or do anything with photos or video.
The other choice is to put out a machine mostly aimed at breaking the chicken/egg conundrum knowing that most people are going to wait to buy in. I hold to the view that's what the 2020 iPP was meant to do-- get that lidar out in the world so devs have a platform to develop on before introducing it more broadly into the product line. That would lean more strongly toward the 16" form factor. If they have Adobe and a few other heavy hitters on board, then I could imagine them replacing the current 16" with an ARM based model. If they don't, I'd expect both models to continue to be available for now and for Serif to get a lot of stage time showing how awesome the Affinity products work on these new ARM processors.
So I'd guess that:
- If they have the MS Office suite available, they'll go with the 12".
- If they have Adobe available, they'll hit big and replace the 16".
- If they have neither, they'll release a machine aimed at squarely at devs.
Bootcamp is another interesting conundrum. I know Windows 10 has started the move toward different processors, particularly for IoT platforms, but I don't get the sense it caught on. I'm not sure how Microsoft's relationship with Intel is these days. The old Microsoft would have promised Cook that Apple could unveil the new ARM version of Windows, and they kill the product later leaving Apple in a lurch. The new Microsoft is much more of a team player, though. An ARM Mac could be a great platform to show that Microsoft is no longer in Intel's pocket, and would give MS themselves more cover to pursue ARM processors in their own hardware.