Apple's Share of Worldwide Tablet Shipments Falls Below 40% in 1Q 2013

[BaldiMac]

Never blame Apple's financial problem to the "licensing Mac OS" policy. Apple was already near to bankrupt when it started to allow for Mac clones..

You just made that up. Apple was nowhere near bankrupt before they licensed Mac clones.

Official Mac clones were available 1995 through mid-1997. Here is Apple's net income (in millions):

1991 $310
1992 $530
1993 $87
1994 $310
1995 $424
1996 ($816)
1997 ($1,045)
1998 $309

http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=320193-95-16&CIK=320193
http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1047469-98-44981&CIK=320193

 

[JayCee842]

It looks like more people have been "choosing" Android in phones for years.

But have they really? I'm getting the impression that much of Android's phenomenal market share is due to people having only $100 to buy a smartphone in many countries across the globe... and those phones just happen to be running Android.

There's not a whole lot of "choice" below a certain price range.

Here's a screenshot from a mobile carrier in India:

Image

You'll notice Android phones at around $150... but the old iPhone 4 costs $500 and the newest iPhone 5 is $850.

(and this page doesn't even show the cheaper Android phones... they actually start at $80)

So... are people really "choosing" Android phones in India? It doesn't look like it. And the people who buy cheap Android phones probably won't be throwing money at developers either.

You can call iOS a "niche" because fewer people are using it... and that's fine.

But developers will go where the money is... so it doesn't matter how much market share a particular platform has.

All that matters is whether they will spend money.

Why do developers even bother focusing on the Mac with its single digit market share? It's because Mac users spend money on Mac software.

And the same is true for Apple phones and tablets... especially in the accessory market (that's part of the ecosystem too, stupid)

How many companies make cases for iPhones? And how many make cases for the Sony Xperia Tipo?

Look... I get your point... but I'm still seeing more support for iOS devices than Android devices.

Android phones have 5 times the market share of the iPhone... yet developers still prefer the iPhone. And now that Android tablets have finally crossed the iPad... I'm guessing the iPad will still enjoy more support too.

Is it better to have a billion customers who don't spend money? Or a million customers who do?

Android market share is a spectacular number on a chart... but there's little benefit otherwise.

Couldnt have said it any better!

 

[Michael Scrip]

Couldnt have said it any better!

Thanks!

 

[PracticalMac]

Shipments or sales, cant deny the downward trend of iPad portion of market.

What I have been saying all along, time to drop iPad price.

----------

But developers will go where the money is... so it doesn't matter how much market share a particular platform has.

All that matters is whether they will spend money.

Very true, but one does need a minimum customer base to sell too.

 

[Michael Scrip]

Very true, but one does need a minimum customer base to sell too.

There have been 500,000,000 iOS devices sold to date. Of course they aren't all in use today... but a couple hundred million are. Isn't that a large enough customer base?

Does it matter if there are more Android devices out there?

A quarter of a billion customers is the same whether that happens to be 5% or 50% of a market.

That's why I never understood this fascination with "market share" percentages.

Like I said before... it makes a great headline... but let's focus on actual numbers.

 

[tongxinshe]

Yeah... I didn't say licensing Mac OS was their only problem. There were multiple problems, right?

So what were they?

Was market share to blame?

How? Did Microsoft have too much market share and Apple not enough? That doesn't make a company go out of business... lack of funds do.

It's easy to look at a market with two players... Windows and Mac... one giant and one miniscule... and draw some sort of conclusion.

But what happens when there are more than two players?

Take the auto industry. You've got Ford, Chevy, Honda, Hyundia, Nissan, etc, etc, etc...

So what happens then? Does one company have to stay above a certain percentage of the market to stay in business? Heck no. They just have to make enough money to cover their expenses and hopefully turn a profit.

And that's why I don't think Apple is in trouble for not having enough market share.

It doesn't matter where they fall on a market share chart... or how they compare with other companies.

Apple sells products... a lot of them. And they earn a lot of money from those products.

Money that keeps them in business and away from bankruptcy.

Hell... look at this article... "Apple drops below 40% tablet market share"

That sounds bad, right?

Then you read that they just sold 19 million tablets in 3 months... or over 200,000 every day... earning billions in profit.

So which is more important... their location on a market share chart... or money?

There is really no comparison between the car industry and the computer industry (be the old PC/Mac industry or smartphone or tablets), the latter is of almost no use without enough industry support and user base to share information with.

In the computer industry, a dominant market share means all of the rest platforms will lose more and more every year till bankruptcy.

 

[tongxinshe]

You just made that up. Apple was nowhere near bankrupt before they licensed Mac clones.

Official Mac clones were available 1995 through mid-1997. Here is Apple's net income (in millions):

1991 $310
1992 $530
1993 $87
1994 $310
1995 $424
1996 ($816)
1997 ($1,045)
1998 $309

http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=320193-95-16&CIK=320193
http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1047469-98-44981&CIK=320193

Don't just stay with the superficial. The real reason is not the Mac clone, but the appearance of Windows en mass.

Mac OS licensing was to revert the free fall of Mac OS' market share, unfortunately Apple's financial situation at that time isn't good enough to survive the needed time for that reversal.

 

[AidenShaw]

this ain't rocket surgery.

lol !

 

[AidenShaw]

Actually, maybe Windows is more like trucks and iOS is more Lexus

iOS is like a Toyota with an inflated price tag?

 

[pirg]

There is really no comparison between the car industry and the computer industry (be the old PC/Mac industry or smartphone or tablets), the latter is of almost no use without enough industry support and user base to share information with.

In the computer industry, a dominant market share means all of the rest platforms will lose more and more every year till bankruptcy.

Do you really think Apple will go bankrupt anytime in the remotely near future? That's almost an impossibility.

 

[davidinva]

Shipment numbers don't tell much. Sales figures do.

 

[StoneJack]

iOS is like a Toyota with an inflated price tag?

Is Lexus price inflated?

 

[adnbek]

In the computer industry, a dominant market share means all of the rest platforms will lose more and more every year till bankruptcy.

Really?

 

[Michael Scrip]

In the computer industry, a dominant market share means all of the rest platforms will lose more and more every year till bankruptcy.

One could argue that Apple has an amazing habit of making plenty of money and avoiding bankruptcy... without having the dominant market share.

My point all along was... you don't have to be #1 to survive.

In the computer industry... there is room for many players... and those who generate gobs of money shouldn't be on your death-watch. If you're worried about Apple going bankrupt in our lifetime... your concern is misplaced.

Honestly... let's work from the bottom up. What are your thoughts on Blackberry?

Blackberry is in MUCH worse shape than Apple.

I've heard there there are 75 million Blackberries currently in the world right now.

Apple sells that many NEW devices every 6 months (while generating billions of dollars in the process)

Again... there are far more companies who you should be concerned about before Apple.

 

[tongxinshe]

Do you really think Apple will go bankrupt anytime in the remotely near future? That's almost an impossibility.

I am talking about a possible bad future of Apple which will start 2-3 years later and become obvious 5-8 years later. As to an even worse result of going bankruptcy, it's possible but only after maybe 20 years.

 

[pirg]

I am talking about a possible bad future of Apple which will start 2-3 years later and become obvious 5-8 years later. As to an even worse result of going bankruptcy, it's possible but only after maybe 20 years.

It would take a mistake of proportions this world has never seen for apple to bankrupt themselves. Even if they straight up stop selling phones they would not be bankrupt for many many years definitely more than 20

 

[PracticalMac]

There have been 500,000,000 iOS devices sold to date. Of course they aren't all in use today... but a couple hundred million are. Isn't that a large enough customer base?

Does it matter if there are more Android devices out there?

A quarter of a billion customers is the same whether that happens to be 5% or 50% of a market.

That's why I never understood this fascination with "market share" percentages.

Like I said before... it makes a great headline... but let's focus on actual numbers.

If MacOS had a larger market share, you would see much closer share of applications, especially with games.

As the % has increased, more games are being released on Mac.

Yes, right now iOS is dominant, but Android is about even, both have only apps for that platform.
Soon it will be a customer will chose a device becuase of certain app.

 

[Michael Scrip]

If MacOS had a larger market share, you would see much closer share of applications, especially with games.

As the % has increased, more games are being released on Mac.

Yes, right now iOS is dominant, but Android is about even, both have only apps for that platform.
Soon it will be a customer will chose a device becuase of certain app.

Right... but you were talking about a minimum customer base.

There are far more Windows customers than Mac customers... yet there are still plenty of companies making Mac software.

With over a billion Windows PCs out in the world right now... why would any developer waste time on Mac apps?

Answer: because there are enough Mac customers who buy their software.

If Mac software is still a viable business even though the Mac has 5% of the market compared to 95% with Windows... iOS developers will continue to make software for the iPhone and iPad at 20% (or whatever it is)

The minimum customer base on iOS is enough... even if their "share" is relatively low.

 

[tongxinshe]

Right... but you were talking about a minimum customer base.

There are far more Windows customers than Mac customers... yet there are still plenty of companies making Mac software.

With over a billion Windows PCs out in the world right now... why would any developer waste time on Mac apps?

Answer: because there are enough Mac customers who buy their software.

If Mac software is still a viable business even though the Mac has 5% of the market compared to 95% with Windows... iOS developers will continue to make software for the iPhone and iPad at 20% (or whatever it is)

The minimum customer base on iOS is enough... even if their "share" is relatively low.

Mac OS has a special history. Mac's market share (thus the absolute install base) reversed its continuous free-fall trend after it switched to Intel CPU thus allowed for native Windows support. A list of my friends wanted to buy Mac computers from time to time but eventually gave up because some important applications (different ones for different people) don't have Mac version or very bad Mac support. They switched to Mac after that, running Windows when they need the respective Windows applications. Now, when the trend has changed, there have been better and better Mac support among the developers, even though the absolute market share is still low. The popularity of iOS helped that trend as well. About half of those friends no longer need to boot to Windows now.

In one word, if not for the dual OS support, and the halo effect from iPod, iPhone and iPad, more likely Mac would have already been dead, like a list of other platforms did in the last decade.

I am not sure the same special story can repeat itself for iOS when Android has a total of 85%+ market share.

 

[Michael Scrip]

In one word, if not for the dual OS support, and the halo effect from iPod, iPhone and iPad, more likely Mac would have already been dead, like a list of other platforms did in the last decade.

I am not sure the same special story can repeat itself for iOS when Android has a total of 85%+ market share.

Geez... you're getting caught up in the market share percentage again.

Let's say there are 2 billion total tablets and smartphones out in the world someday.

Are you telling me that 300,000,000 iOS devices will be too small of a market for iOS developers and accessory makers to continue?

Of course not. That's still an attractive user base.

It's not about market share percentage... it's about the number of potential customers who will spend money.

If anything... Android's phenomenal market share is proving to be less valuable... since a smaller number of iOS users are actually spending more money on apps and accessories.

In other words... all those cheap $80 Android phones sold in China and India aren't really doing much for the platform... other than bolster Google's activation numbers.

Look... I get what you're saying... Android will always have more market share than iOS.

But iOS is doing well with what it has... very well actually.

 

[BaldiMac]

Don't just stay with the superficial.

Superficial? You mean established facts that directly contradict your statement?

The real reason is not the Mac clone, but the appearance of Windows en mass.

Evidence for this claim? Do you think that it's a coincidence that:

a) Apple's profitability was increasing before the release of Mac Clones.
b) Apple lost money the two years that the clones were available. More than they made the previous five years combined.
c) Apple immediately returned to profitability after the clones were canceled.

Really?

Mac OS licensing was to revert the free fall of Mac OS' market share, unfortunately Apple's financial situation at that time isn't good enough to survive the needed time for that reversal.

Not many companies are in a financial situation that is good enough to lose $1 billion+ a year.

 

[tongxinshe]

Geez... you're getting caught up in the market share percentage again.

Let's say there are 2 billion total tablets and smartphones out in the world someday.

Are you telling me that 300,000,000 iOS devices will be too small of a market for iOS developers and accessory makers to continue?

Of course not. That's still an attractive user base.

It's not about market share percentage... it's about the number of potential customers who will spend money.

If anything... Android's phenomenal market share is proving to be less valuable... since a smaller number of iOS users are actually spending more money on apps and accessories.

In other words... all those cheap $80 Android phones sold in China and India aren't really doing much for the platform... other than bolster Google's activation numbers.

Look... I get what you're saying... Android will always have more market share than iOS.

But iOS is doing well with what it has... very well actually.

First, the less than 15% market share isn’t for iOS only, but for iOS, Windows, BlackBerry and maybe some others (to be emerging) all combined, so 5%-7% for iOS is more realistic, which means 100-140 million units in your example.

Sure that number would be enough for all developers of some size, like the old days for the Mac platform. However, for the starters, small developers and most of the specialty software developers, their income from the 15% minorities cannot justify their spending, thus no support will come.

There is also another factor. By that time, more and more customers in that minority group will escape from the group, either to avoid being regarded as weirdos or for having more common topics with friends or to avoid the difficulty of getting help from friends with occasional how-to questions.

For all these two reasons, these minority groups will continuously shrink and eventually becomes small enough to grant a “discontinue” decision.

----------

Superficial? You mean established facts that directly contradict your statement?



Evidence for this claim? Do you think that it's a coincidence that:

a) Apple's profitability was increasing before the release of Mac Clones.
b) Apple lost money the two years that the clones were available. More than they made the previous five years combined.
c) Apple immediately returned to profitability after the clones were canceled.

Really?

Not many companies are in a financial situation that is good enough to lose $1 billion+ a year.

Yes, it is really coincidence. The big surge of 1997’s deficit is more to blame that $350 million cash paid to acquire NexT. The returning to profit of 1998 is more a result of streamlining product lines and of spending cut.

 

[BaldiMac]

Yes, it is really coincidence. The big surge of 1997’s deficit is more to blame that $350 million cash paid to acquire NexT.

So.. you've explained $350 million out of $1.8 billion in losses over two years.

The returning to profit of 1998 is more a result of streamlining product lines and of spending cut.

Maybe. But you still haven't provided any evidence to support your claim.



And neither of those claims changes the fact that your claim that "Apple was already near to bankrupt when it started to allow for Mac clones" was completely false.

 

[Michael Scrip]

First, the less than 15% market share isn’t for iOS only, but for iOS, Windows, BlackBerry and maybe some others (to be emerging) all combined, so 5%-7% for iOS is more realistic, which means 100-140 million units in your example.

Sure that number would be enough for all developers of some size, like the old days for the Mac platform. However, for the starters, small developers and most of the specialty software developers, their income from the 15% minorities cannot justify their spending, thus no support will come.

There is also another factor. By that time, more and more customers in that minority group will escape from the group, either to avoid being regarded as weirdos or for having more common topics with friends or to avoid the difficulty of getting help from friends with occasional how-to questions.

For all these two reasons, these minority groups will continuously shrink and eventually becomes small enough to grant a “discontinue” decision.

Android already has triple the market share of iOS... yet developers make the vast majority of their profit from iOS.

That tells me that Android's phenomenal market share doesn't translate into app sales dollars.

Both platforms are still gaining customers at the moment. The disadvantage of Android is there are a crap-ton of cheap $80 Android phones being sold in China and India... to people who probably won't spend money on apps or who don't have a credit card.

All those phones being pumped into the market makes Android's market share go up... but it's not guaranteed to do anything else.

It's already 70% Android phones... 20% iPhones... and 10% other.

Seriously... look at those numbers. If you make an iPhone app... only 20% of the world's smartphone market can use that app... completely ignoring the other 80% of the market.

Yet developers are doing exactly that... because iPhone users actually spend money.

It doesn't look like it will matter if there are more Android phones and fewer iPhones.... because iPhone users are still the more valuable customers.

I don't predict developers to "discontinue" iOS development anytime soon (if at all)

 

[Liquorpuki]

I am not sure the same special story can repeat itself for iOS when Android has a total of 85%+ market share.

You can't compare iOS and Android when they use entirely different business models with vastly different degrees of success.

iOS is a complement to Apple hardware, which has done well because the iPhone now constitutes over 50% of their revenue stream.

Android is a complement to Google's online services, which has failed to successfully monetize at all. They spent a ton of money to give something away for free and ended up making their competitors rich in the process. Now because they turned competitors into threats, Google has had to make strategic acquisitions and enter the hardware business in multiple markets.

The biggest threat to Android isn't iOS. It's Google itself. I don't know how long they're gonna keep funding something that has proven to be a money sink. Android marketshare doesn't matter, not when the company that created Android and spends money to update it isn't making any money off their work.

A more meaningful use of marketshare would be to compare hardware MFG penetration, not OS's.