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It's amazing the stories people are telling themselves to justify the recent price increase. I'm not trying to poo-poo on Apple's run up in recent years, but rather in recent months.

More than 40% multiple expansion but a 5% yoy revenue increase without any news in a matter of 3 months. Let's give credit where it's due: The FED + CARES act greatly inflating already high asset prices. Sprinkling $3T on the US economy in a short period of time clearly causes everyone to go buy/renovate their house. But does the extra money cause people to spend more on Apple products and services though? That remains to be seen.
 
You're gonna regret that car payoff. I sold off 300 shares just before the 7-1 to buy a hot shot car. Didn't care that the dealer was hosing me. It was all play money anyway. Well, that $30k to $35K would be about a $Million now.
 
Its going to burst...any time now...

I started buying Apple stock in the 1980s after Jobs was fired and the stock tanked. I have a publishing company and all my graphic artists used (and still use) Macs, and they would quit before switching to anything else. With that sort of loyalty I figured the stock was worth a lot more than the couple of bucks it was trading for at the time. I've done very well with the stock, and every time my advisor suggests I take some money off the table I say NEVER! Just wish I had bought a lot more.

You are holding stocks from 1980s and didn't think of selling when Apple plummeted in mid 90s, didn't think of switching to Microsoft stock, didn't sell in mid 2000's when the stock exponentially doubled?

please have my respect.
 
How about Steve Job's family? He sold his founder stake in AAPL (10%) for less than 50 cents a share (adjusted for splits).

But used the proceeds to buy Pixar, so not a complete loss.

Jobs didn't have any Apple stock when he came back to the company? Wow...thats new to me, now I know why he was only worth $7B compared to gates $90B, Zuckerberg, and Google founders. The choice to bring back Steve over any other famous CEO of the time is very interesting and whoever thought of it should be given credit to Apple's current success.

You're gonna regret that car payoff. I sold off 300 shares just before the 7-1 to buy a hot shot car. Didn't care that the dealer was hosing me. It was all play money anyway. Well, that $30k to $35K would be about a $Million now.

never regret time enjoyed in life, you will never be that age again and that car model will never be new again.
 
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Had to sell mine in the late 2000s due to some bad real estate deals. Got back in a few years ago. . . happy but not as happy as I could have been.
 
The P/E ratio is simply catching up with sector averages after decades of horrible underappreciation.

The P/E ratio for a company steadily growing at ~10% should be around 20. A rapidly growing company might warrant a much higher P/E. If I expect your company to be 30x as large in a decade as it is now, then maybe a P/E ratio around 600 makes more sense.

If your company is steady or declining, a lower P/E makes more sense - maybe something around 10.

Apple is at best in the steady 10% growth category. There's a lot of evidence that Apple is going to start contracting, though. They've stopped disclosing sales numbers, because they peaked years ago on most product lines. They've been jacking up prices to maintain revenue, but at some point this strategy will fail and revenue from iPhone and Mac will tumble. The AirPods and Apple Watch are still growing, but for how long? Plus they're much smaller markets and go for much lower prices than the iPhones and Macs that they're supposed to make up for.

Services is another big market for Apple, but their biggest service, the App Store and In-App Purchases, are increasingly under fire for being a monopoly.

Apple's time at the top is coming to an end. Tim Cook milked the brand for a long time, but it's coming to an end.
 
Jobs didn't have any Apple stock when he came back to the company?

According to some bios, after he left Apple he sold all but one share of his AAPL stock (and used the proceeds to found Next and buy Pixar). So he did have some stock when he came back (one share, or did that one share split before Apple acquired Next?).
 
This has to be the greatest turnaround of an American company in history. I vividly recall back in '97 when Steve Jobs introduced Bill Gates on a big screen behind him as he announced Microsoft's investment of $150 million in non-voting stock. This was done to keep Apple basically from going under at that time. Now, here we are. Amazing.
 
It's amazing the stories people are telling themselves to justify the recent price increase. I'm not trying to poo-poo on Apple's run up in recent years, but rather in recent months.

More than 40% multiple expansion but a 5% yoy revenue increase without any news in a matter of 3 months. Let's give credit where it's due: The FED + CARES act greatly inflating already high asset prices. Sprinkling $3T on the US economy in a short period of time clearly causes everyone to go buy/renovate their house. But does the extra money cause people to spend more on Apple products and services though? That remains to be seen.
You see the price change and you still don’t get it.

Apple was stupidly undervalued for 5 years and is now getting the services/consumer products multiple it deserves. Apple doesn't need to double its revenue to deserve a revaluation.

Go look at consumer staples stocks and their valuation. 33X earnings is not an insane valuation for Apple, which has proven it’s the best company in the world by consistently executing at a high level.

Clorox trades at 31X earnings, as one example.
 
The P/E ratio for a company steadily growing at ~10% should be around 20. A rapidly growing company might warrant a much higher P/E. If I expect your company to be 30x as large in a decade as it is now, then maybe a P/E ratio around 600 makes more sense.

If your company is steady or declining, a lower P/E makes more sense - maybe something around 10.

Apple is at best in the steady 10% growth category. There's a lot of evidence that Apple is going to start contracting, though. They've stopped disclosing sales numbers, because they peaked years ago on most product lines. They've been jacking up prices to maintain revenue, but at some point this strategy will fail and revenue from iPhone and Mac will tumble. The AirPods and Apple Watch are still growing, but for how long? Plus they're much smaller markets and go for much lower prices than the iPhones and Macs that they're supposed to make up for.

Services is another big market for Apple, but their biggest service, the App Store and In-App Purchases, are increasingly under fire for being a monopoly.

Apple's time at the top is coming to an end. Tim Cook milked the brand for a long time, but it's coming to an end.
You have been consistently wrong on Apple as long as I’ve seen you post. Your Analysis is just laughable now that the stock is almost $500 and still only trades at 33X earnings.

The type of earnings matter a lot...so does the type of growth.

Your narrative makes more sense for TSLA, AMZN, NFLX...not Apple. Apple has all the numbers to back up their valuation.
 
I see the resident troll brigade is still predicting a massive implosion any day now. Keep trying, losers.
So true. People will continue to say it until it happens and will tell you they were right all along. Problem is, they never got in on the party. Just like the people predicting the market crash and never invest because of it. They never get the gains and inevitable recovery.

There will be many signs its ending if you need to sell shares. Until the data says so, things are OK.
 
Damn sold at 455 a week ago to get out of stocks in an old IRA and diversify with better balanced mutual funds. Oh well. Still killed it.
 
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So do I. Didn't get in until 2007 at a split-adjusted price of $17.1786/share. Looking forward to 8/31 when the next split will net me 30000 shares from that initial 2007 investment.
Very nice. I'll have around 68k shares that I started buying in 2005. :) As always, wish I'd bought more, but happy I got to retire early.

(Forgot it was a 4-1 split... So had to edit a bit.)
 
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You have been consistently wrong on Apple as long as I’ve seen you post. Your Analysis is just laughable now that the stock is almost $500 and still only trades at 33X earnings.

The type of earnings matter a lot...so does the type of growth.

Your narrative makes more sense for TSLA, AMZN, NFLX...not Apple. Apple has all the numbers to back up their valuation.

I don't obsessively follow Netflix or Amazon, so I might be wrong here, but I agree that they're like Apple and way overvalued. They've been doing their thing and have been pretty steady for the past few years. They're done all the growth that they can, and I don't know where there is for them to continue dramatic growth.

I think Amazon should be trading at around 20-30x, not 125x.

Netflix and Apple should probably be around 15-20x, not 81x for Netflix and 33x for Apple.

Tesla is just getting started. They have clear plans to grow their production by 4x over the next 2 years and to continue at an insane rate after that. Elon says that they'll be rolling out FSD to their 1.2M already produced cars in the next 5-10 weeks. He's often too optimistic on timelines, so lets say it's 5-10 months away instead - it doesn't make a difference, really. Either way, we're talking hundreds of times the scale of any other company in this space. These millions of vehicles will each bring in tens of thousands of dollars to Tesla per year - overnight, they'll be bringing in tens of billions of annual pure profit. Add in the fact that they'll be building an extra 2M vehicles per year within two years. Their profits will be in the hundreds of billions per year within four years, with no reason to think it would stop there. A 20x valuation at that time would justify a market cap of over $3T in 4 years (but the fact they're still growing at that time would mean a higher multiple would be justified still.)

Nothing has been seen that will be the size of Tesla. It'll hit a scale several times larger than Standard Oil ever achieved.

Maybe when the Netflix/Amazon bubble pops we'll see it take Tesla down, too, but that'll just be an unrealistically good buying opportunity for Tesla (now is also a great opportunity, too - what else will grow 10x in 4 years?)
 


Just two days after becoming a $2 trillion company, Apple continues to experience impressive momentum on the stock market, with shares in the company rising around four percent in intraday trading as of writing.

Apple2TrillionDollars-3D.jpg

Apple's stock price is quickly closing in on the $500 mark and has more than doubled since bottoming out at $224 in late March. Despite the global health crisis, the company set a June quarter revenue record of $59.7 billion, buoyed by strong Mac and iPad sales as more people work, learn, and connect with others from home.

Apple recently announced a four-for-one stock split that will take effect for shareholders of record as of August 24, with split-adjusted trading to begin on August 31. This move will not directly affect the company's valuation.

Apple is one of several companies that has seen its stock price surge since March, alongside the likes of Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

Article Link: Apple's Stock Approaching $500 Mark After Becoming $2T Company
First Trillion: 37 years
Second Trillion: 2 years
(All of it in the past 21 weeks!)

On December 12, 1980, Apple (ticker symbol “AAPL”) went public, selling 4.6 million shares at $22 per share (just under $0.10 per share ($0.0982) when adjusted to include the upcoming stock split on August 24, 2020), generating over $100 million, which was more capital than any IPO since Ford Motor Company in 1956. The stock rose $7 to $29 per share (not split-adjusted) by the end of that first day, creating 300 millionaires. Apple’s market cap was $1.778 billion at the end of its first day of trading (per Wikipedia).

On August 2, 2018, 37 years, 7 months, and 21 days later, Apple stock reached an estimated value of $1 trillion, an increase of $998,222,000,000 or 56,143%. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 18.666%.

Today (August 21, 2020), only 2 years and 19 days after that $1 trillion milestone (and just 2 days after it hit $2T), Apple shares climbed to $497.48, for a market cap of $2.127 trillion, an increase of $2.125 trillion since December 12, 1980 or 119,529%. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 19.928%.

As recently as mid-March of this year, Apple was below $1 trillion after the stock market plunged over fears of the coronavirus. Even more stunning: all of Apple’s second $1 trillion, therefore, came in the past 21 weeks (per The New York Times, Aug. 19, 2020).

From August 2, 2018 ($1T), to August 19, 2020 ($2T), that is a 100% increase (obviously) in Apple’s market cap. Rounding to an even two years, that’s a compound annual growth rate for just the past two years of 41.421%. (You might think it would be 50%, but compound annual growth is calculated differently and is more accurate than a simple average. You can look it up.) Using today’s market cap of 2.127T, that comes to 45.842%

If you were around back then and had invested $2,900 in 100 shares of the Apple ][+ maker on its first day of trading on December 12, 1980 and still owned them today, due to stock splits (but not counting dividends that you might have reinvested) you would have 5,600 shares of stock, which, at today’s closing price ($497.48) would be worth more than $2.7 million ($2,785,888).

If you had invested $20,739 to buy 100 shares of the Mac/iPhone/iPad/Apple Watch/Apple TV maker, online services provider (but not then a credit-card issuer or movie and TV producer) on the day its market cap hit $1 trillion on August 2, 2018 (closing price: $207.39) and still owned them today (not counting dividends), they would be worth $49,748.

(Apple has been buying back and retiring its shares, thus reducing the number of shares available on the market, so the value of your investment has more than doubled, because your 100 shares today are a larger proportion of all outstanding shares than they were in 2018.)

Who here has been an Apple investor over the last two years? How about the last 39? Or where do you fall in between? (Remember, it’s not bragging if it’s true.)

I fall in between, having made my initial purchase in 1998. Thank you, Steve and Steve and Jonny and Phil and Tim and all the rest.
 
I don't obsessively follow Netflix or Amazon, so I might be wrong here, but I agree that they're like Apple and way overvalued. They've been doing their thing and have been pretty steady for the past few years. They're done all the growth that they can, and I don't know where there is for them to continue dramatic growth.

I think Amazon should be trading at around 20-30x, not 125x.

Netflix and Apple should probably be around 15-20x, not 81x for Netflix and 33x for Apple.

Tesla is just getting started. They have clear plans to grow their production by 4x over the next 2 years and to continue at an insane rate after that. Elon says that they'll be rolling out FSD to their 1.2M already produced cars in the next 5-10 weeks. He's often too optimistic on timelines, so lets say it's 5-10 months away instead - it doesn't make a difference, really. Either way, we're talking hundreds of times the scale of any other company in this space. These millions of vehicles will each bring in tens of thousands of dollars to Tesla per year - overnight, they'll be bringing in tens of billions of annual pure profit. Add in the fact that they'll be building an extra 2M vehicles per year within two years. Their profits will be in the hundreds of billions per year within four years, with no reason to think it would stop there. A 20x valuation at that time would justify a market cap of over $3T in 4 years (but the fact they're still growing at that time would mean a higher multiple would be justified still.)

Nothing has been seen that will be the size of Tesla. It'll hit a scale several times larger than Standard Oil ever achieved.

Maybe when the Netflix/Amazon bubble pops we'll see it take Tesla down, too, but that'll just be an unrealistically good buying opportunity for Tesla (now is also a great opportunity, too - what else will grow 10x in 4 years?)
Saying Apple is overvalued like Amazon or Netflix is totally ridiculous. If Apple were valued like Amazon, it would trade at $1500.
 
It's amazing the stories people are telling themselves to justify the recent price increase. I'm not trying to poo-poo on Apple's run up in recent years, but rather in recent months.

More than 40% multiple expansion but a 5% yoy revenue increase without any news in a matter of 3 months. Let's give credit where it's due: The FED + CARES act greatly inflating already high asset prices. Sprinkling $3T on the US economy in a short period of time clearly causes everyone to go buy/renovate their house. But does the extra money cause people to spend more on Apple products and services though? That remains to be seen.
All true. But their multiple 3 months ago was too low, and has always historically been too low.
 
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