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It's insane how overpriced Apple is right now.

Profits: $11B. So stock market is saying they're worth 19x as much as they make in a year. Also, this is steady state - there's no reason to think spending will go down or revenue will go up. That's why Apple is already paying dividends. Which aren't very good.

Diversification: Mac sales are down. Apple is even more dependent on the iPhone than ever. If someone rolls out the thing that turns the iPhone into the iPod, Apple has nothing to fall back on. Also, growing services is really just growing profits per iPhone - there's no reason to think that when the iPhone becomes irrelevant, their services would survive.

I see Apple as very risky with little chance of reward. I bought at $140 last year and sold at $190. Great that it jumped to $200 - we're getting closer to the edge. You can either sell now or fall off the cliff.

I'll buy back in when it's down to $160 or so (assuming nothing changes. If that mystical iPhone disruptor shows up, obviously I won't be buying Apple at all.)

Folks have been saying what you've written for ~10 years. Of course, if someone keeps predicting doom one day they will be right. In any case, stock picking is a luck game, index funds and move on with your life.
 
It's insane how overpriced Apple is right now.

Profits: $11B. So stock market is saying they're worth 19x as much as they make in a year. Also, this is steady state - there's no reason to think spending will go down or revenue will go up. That's why Apple is already paying dividends. Which aren't very good.
It's $11B for the last quarter. They have made $45B in profits for the current fiscal year (9 months).

They're well on their way to smashing their all time annual profit.

As for being overpriced, look at other tech stocks and tell me how they're commanding P/E ratios of 50+ to 200+. All while paying zero dividend and being even less diversified as Apple.
 
You mean the MacBook Pro which became even more expensive because of the emoji touch bar that nobody asked for? The same MacBook Pro that has a keyboard with almost no key travel for the same of a 1mm thinner laptop and that it took three revisions before becoming "good enough"? (Apple wasn't okay with "good enough" in the past, too)

The iMac Pro that nobody asked for, cramming powerful and expensive components into a thin chassis for no reason than to have five minutes of fame?

The Mac Pro that should have been the replacement for the previous tower Mac Pro in 2013 instead of that cylinder joke and that it took Apple four years to listen to the buyers of Mac Pros?

The budget laptop that should have been made in 2015 instead of the expensive retina Macbook?

Or are you talking about the Mac mini, which was downgraded in 2014?

Or maybe just the fact that we can't even upgrade the RAM on our own computers anymore?

Because that's what we're talking about.

The MacBook Pro that seems to be doing quite well despite you’re distain for the Touch Bar.

The iMac Pro that probably isn’t even aimed at you anyway and is meant for a very small market of Pro’s that need the kind of power you talk about.

The Mac Pro was a mistake they owned up too that and are working on a new Mac Pro for 2019.

The MacBook is a great design and a great little MacBook for people who don’t need a huge amount of power and prefer extream portability.

The Mac mini I have no idea why they haven’t updated that, maybe another mistake yes or maybe there is a reason.

And as for Ram if being able to update it in you’re MacBook if that is really important to you then you are probably with the wrong company. But again most people just select what they want when ordering the Mac they buy, where’s the issue?

As I’ve already said, it doesn’t matter what Apple do there will always be some people who complain, you can’t please all of the people 100% of the time.

But judging by the numbers the mass market of people who don’t visit or post on these kinds of forums seem to be happy, judging by Apple’s earnings.

Just my opinion and 2 pennies worth! (Cents if your American)
 
Stupid stock market, don't they know apple puts out nothing but crap products now?!?! where is their macrumor membership?
How does Apple put out crap products? Sounds like you have no idea and are just spewing out what android and pc fanboys say.. everyone including scientists, musicians, artists,educators, audio engineers use Apple products. They also have 243.7 billion dollars on hand. The market IS stupid, and YOU are the general market..
 
What was that phrase again... "Irrational Exuberance"
Yeah. That one.
Mind explaining how "irrational exuberance" has anything to do with Apple's record breaking revenue and stock price as of late? Or are you just regurgitating phrases that sound cool to you?
 
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A P/E of nearly 20 is still very high (yes yes Google & Amazon have even higher).

Could Apple reaching a trillion market cap mark the peak of the inevitable tech crash that is due?
 
Looking good. I bought a lot of stock years ago at around $3/share. Everyone told me I was throwing my money away. The return at this point has been phenomenal. Have to be willing to hold and not sell early like so many did. Stick it out long term.

Also have to know when to sell and cut your losses. In this case there haven't been any losses but far too many will continue to hold and ride it down (like many have done with BitCoin for instance).
Well that’s a good job, but I think people buying bitcoin at 6k are gonna be happy. It’s clearly not done.
 
For people who keep saying Apple's success is based on hype: Apple's P/E is lower than Proctor and Gamble. I don't find that surprising given that with a market cap of close to 5% of US GDP, there's limited room for growth...

Given the commentary around these forums, I found this interesting: I see no obvious long term effect of the Jobs/Cook transition. I also see no obvious long term effect of the iPhone release.

It's hard to say for sure because of the interaction with the dotcom bust, but if I wanted to pick a pithy storyline, it would be that iPod changed the world.

Screen Shot 2018-08-01 at 9.51.23 AM.png
 
Mac sales are down. Apple is even more dependent on the iPhone than ever. If someone rolls out the thing that turns the iPhone into the iPod, Apple has nothing to fall back on.

Apple has nothing to fall back on in the market today. Surely, it's working on countless projects behind the scenes (car, AR glasses, etc.) that it doesn't feel are quite ready. The iPhone is the most successful consumer product in history, but I think it's safe to safe to assume that there are other things in the pipeline that could make some waves.
 
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How does Apple put out crap products? Sounds like you have no idea and are just spewing out what android and pc fanboys say.. everyone including scientists, musicians, artists,educators, audio engineers use Apple products. They also have 243.7 billion dollars on hand. The market IS stupid, and YOU are the general market..

um. ever hear of sarcasm? Just saying. I happen to be one of those scientists you mention typing on his apple magic keyboard, connected to my 2018 MacBook Pro 15", reading this text on my apple Thunderbolt Display, while wearing my gen 3 Apple Watch with my trusty iPhone X docked to the side ...shall I go on? Like how I owned the original 128 Mac? I was using Apple products long before it was cool. But sure I am an android and pc fan boy LOL. I don't think I have ever even turned on a windows machine. No, the point of my post is I get tired of coming to Macrumors to find out useful information in the forums (there are some bright people here), and reading post after post knee jerk reaction from people complaining about how Apple sucks these days. Nope. They still make the some amazing products as long as you don't mind thinking a bit differently. Apple's stock price is well earned. But these forums often get bogged down in mud slinging.
 
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Apple cannot sustain this type of growth. This leads to the $64k question...what happends next? Regardless though, it was an excellent quarter!
 
FYI, I finally Discovered an Analyst worth their salt ! ... Toni Sacconaghi @ Bernstein... this guy really knows his stuff ... I don't impress easily, but was impressed with what he just said about AAPL on CNBC ... he knows AAPL extremely well, as well as I know, which I believe is Extremely Rare.

Most of the so-called Professional Analysts are simply Cheerleaders, masquerading as Analysts ... Sacconaghi is the rare exception covering AAPL ... I highly recommend everyone begin following this guy if they aren't already, & Drop ALL others.
 
You can go ahead and search that up yourself.
Nice non-answer there. I'll take it to mean you're just saying things that sound cool to you.
[doublepost=1533144885][/doublepost]
FYI, I finally Discovered an Analyst worth their salt ! ... Toni Sacconaghi @ Bernstein... this guy really knows his stuff ... I don't impress easily, but was impressed with what he just said about AAPL on CNBC ... he knows AAPL extremely well, as well as I know, which I believe is Extremely Rare.

Most of the so-called Professional Analysts are simply Cheerleaders, masquerading as Analysts ... Sacconaghi is the rare exception covering AAPL ... I highly recommend everyone begin following this guy if they aren't already, & Drop ALL others.
Didn't know Toni posted on MR under the name Cosmosent.
 
FYI, I finally Discovered an Analyst worth their salt ! ... Toni Sacconaghi @ Bernstein... this guy really knows his stuff ... I don't impress easily, but was impressed with what he just said about AAPL on CNBC ... he knows AAPL extremely well, as well as I know, which I believe is Extremely Rare.

Most of the so-called Professional Analysts are simply Cheerleaders, masquerading as Analysts ... Sacconaghi is the rare exception covering AAPL ... I highly recommend everyone begin following this guy if they aren't already, & Drop ALL others.

Ah, like when he said iPhone's unit sales would decline 33% in q1 and it turned out they were down 0.9%. Yeah, he's a real champ.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/24/aap...could-be-weak-bernsteins-toni-sacconaghi.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-fiscal-q1-2018-earnings-iphone-sales-revenue-eps-2018-2
 
It's insane how overpriced Apple is right now.

Profits: $11B. So stock market is saying they're worth 19x as much as they make in a year. Also, this is steady state - there's no reason to think spending will go down or revenue will go up. That's why Apple is already paying dividends. Which aren't very good.

Diversification: Mac sales are down. Apple is even more dependent on the iPhone than ever. If someone rolls out the thing that turns the iPhone into the iPod, Apple has nothing to fall back on. Also, growing services is really just growing profits per iPhone - there's no reason to think that when the iPhone becomes irrelevant, their services would survive.

I see Apple as very risky with little chance of reward. I bought at $140 last year and sold at $190. Great that it jumped to $200 - we're getting closer to the edge. You can either sell now or fall off the cliff.

I'll buy back in when it's down to $160 or so (assuming nothing changes. If that mystical iPhone disruptor shows up, obviously I won't be buying Apple at all.)

You've left out the iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods, iCloud storage, the TV Network and original content (ask Netflix how that's turning out) developing a self driving car, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're working on starting their own cell service as they've seen the light in profits of selling apps, songs, albums, movies, and services that dovetail with those, and the fact they're holding a literal ton of cash. Not debt, cash.

You're short sighted and uninformed.
 
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